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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Gives us some diversification from an otherwise 80/20 split. Also my fiancee comes from a background of owning rental property and instead of buying property ourselves and having to learn to maintain it, the REITs give us some of that exposure. We will diversify a little more as our current portfolio grows but that is currently how it sits. I had a plan similar to that in the article then found the article and book marked it. At the end you can go to his website for better views of the graphs and the funds he recommends. I like passive investing myself
     
  2. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    Leaving aside the relative values over time, I seem to recall a few things happening since '95 aside from the occasional softening of investor sentiment.
     
  3. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    Nvm
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2013
  4. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    The Fed used to target money supply rather than interest rates.

    Narrow money supply is, by definition, something that the Fed can create. And they have. A lot.

    And banks don't just sit on excess reserves which is exactly why every regulator wants to impose leverage ratios more stringent than what banks would maintain on their own.
     
  5. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    And the ultra rare follow up to one of my rare posts here...so got in for about $95 that day and got out today at $105 on half of what I bought. Will hold the other half for who knows how long. For me that is a big score in six weeks.
     
    1 person likes this.
  6. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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  7. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Anyone here park their cash in an S&P 500 ETF?

    I have too much idle cash laying around that's going to waste and I'm looking to invest in a single ETF for the short-term (next 6 months or so).

    Bad idea?
     
  8. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    As long as you are okay with the risk of losing money then you could park it there. There has been talk of a pull back for a while but it could still be a strong bull market and rise for another 6 months. With the recent US and Interpol terror alerts, something outside of the stock market could have effect that lowers it a few % or more. But if you want some sort of interest maybe a savings account as they usually give you an introductory higher percentage for 3-6 months?
     
  9. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    Id, even if your gut is correct, sometimes these things can take a very long time to become reality. I would not want to sit on a leveraged short ETF waiting for people to become depressed about the market. Being short too early is a bad way to go, IMO. How many shorters got completely crushed prior to the tech bubble bursting when they were 6 months early.

    I'm buying stocks on dips, as I usually do. They are expensive in my opinion so I'm avoiding adding to anything in the more expensive sectors unless they've seen some pretty good sell offs, like big dividend payers such as utilities. Many businesses have improved dramatically in the past 5 years, so the E has fallowed the P to some degree. I have been moving into enough cash to take advantage of a dip. I dont expect the stock market to be cut in half, I think that would take more than the fed tapering their buying.

    The threat of tapering in June caused a decline of about 900 points.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2013
  10. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    I am comfortable with losing cash and I do have a pretty high risk-appetite so I don't want to simply park my cash in a regular savings account that's going to give me, what, 30-40 bps? Money market funds are out of the question because the bps on those are even more laughable and I obviously don't have the size of a cash position to warrant parking in a MMF.

    That leaves me with the S&P 500 ETFs and the market has obviously been performing very well lately, but you do raise a very good point on the recent alerts on terrorism.

    I'll hold back a week or so and see how that event plays out. Good call.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2013
  11. Piobaire

    Piobaire Senior member

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    Your stated time frame is six months. You're willing to risk serious downside of your cash position because you're worried about having that money idle for six months? Seems like an outsize risk for an undersized possible return. S&P is at historic highs, jobs report was meh, we've got tons of shit going on in the world that could cause a shock...I would sit on that cash for six months so you'll know you have it for whatever purpose you have it assigned to.
     
  12. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I agree with Pio.

    Cash is invaluable when you need it, so I don't risk what I will most certainly need. I keep a long-term view on stocks I purchase, which would be the same thing as buying an S&P index fund. In recent years since the GEC we've seen downturns for quite a few events, even though the S&P has been on a somewhat steady march upward. As a stock market investor its wise to be mindful that it's more likely that something will happen than that nothing will happen.

    The events are always unique but when put into a group of 'events that cause a downturn' they are fairly common.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2013
  13. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Senior member

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    Sorry if I wasn't clear. I wouldn't be investing my entire cash position; only roughly half of it.

    I'd still have cash on-hand in case of emergencies.

    I've decided to just wait a couple weeks and see how the macroeconomic news looks and then I'll pull the trigger.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2013
  14. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    You're making it sound like you are investing the safety cash in your portfolio into an index. This is certainly an individual preference which depends on many things including how much leverage you have, if any, and your strategy for buying.
     
  15. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    My understanding is that major CBs targeted money supply growth during the 80s but failed because it is something they cannot control. And by 1990 all developed world CB abandoned targeting the money supply.

    The Fed has created a lot of base money, which is very different than M2.

    Capital ratios and reserve requirements are two different things.
     
  16. phreak

    phreak Senior member

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    Did anyone hold KORS through earnings? They (predictably) beat again. Looking to lighten position at $72 but there is still upside potential at that valuation.

    I don't have time for a detailed write-up but if you have some time check out MXG.TO they have a super-interesting conference call on Friday.
     
  17. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    It's really a simple matter of convenience whether you announce decisions in terns of money supply or base rates. In order to implement your decision, you wind up doing the same thing - buying / selling bills. And that's what ultimately matters.

    Setting an overnight index rate does about as much for the economy as setting an M1 target.

    You're still hostage to reserves rates / capital ratios / desire to lend.

    My point is that the Fed can and, in fact does, control narrow money supply.
     
  18. danL32

    danL32 Member

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    I never ended up making a move on KORS for this quarter.... but I think now that there are higher expectations, it may be profitable to buy some puts through earnings 1-3 quarters from now. But- it seems like KORS has completely replaced COH. Can't even tell you the last time I saw a girl with a Coach bag, whereas every simple girl over the age of 12 has KORS stuff these days. I'll definitely be watching closely for trends regarding these two.

    I think the retail sector is very interesting at this time. American Eagle, Coach, Express, Aeropostile, JCP and the rest of the teen retailers/mall fashion brands seem to be doing terribly. I may look to buy some cheap JWN calls before earnings though. Maybe teens have rotated towards JWN type products, since some could be found at the same pricepoint as Abercrombie etc. August 18 60 calls are trading around 80-90 cents. Anyone think that the anniversary sale could be a nice catalyst to push JWN back to it's highs?
     
  19. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    Why does CBNC always show Mark Faber? The guy is doom and gloom which hasn't helped him since 2009 but that was before I was investing much. But I assume people buy his report so he will just keep talking as long as people keep buying.

    But as for the retail sector it is a tough play. JWN may be a good be but specialty retailers are just getting hosed. My younger sister was a good trend to follow in what she purchased. ANF was hot when she was buying that then when her tastes shifted ANF was terrible. Now she is more small retailer, non-traded names but still strives for bigger items such as JWN, LVMH (non-US stock from what I can find EPA:MC), and TIF. Though to me TIF does not seem like a good play. Not a personal fan of what they sell.
     
  20. phreak

    phreak Senior member

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    You do realize that GS has a $100 (sorta lol but you get the point) price target for KORS and was their top rated pick this year. Jeffries has a price target of $85. I bought KORS a few months back with the intention of selling if it hit $72. Now that it has, I'm still selling a % but feel almost silly doing so because it has so much momentum and love from institutions and retail investors.

    I've never looked at JWN but don't buy OTM short-dated options if you're simply hoping/guessing they beat.
     

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