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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    I dumped my NLY shares last week. There seems to be a general flight from this sector, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. I basically broke even on NLY with the dividends I've collected over the last few years but its my fault. I saw it happening and didn't move out earlier when it was still in the 15's.



    This. Those dividends are mouth watering though.



    I did a few quick trades on it in the 40's into the 50's and always made 2 or 3% each time. I wouldn't buy and hold at this level personally.


    _______________________

    In other news, I've been active lately. I was active late last year and early this year and sat on my positions to ride the upswing.

    I'm out of DB to a very small profit, it just can't find any steam.
    Sold BRCM, also small profit, no real movement.
    Sold all my AAPL. I have a feeling their guidance will be weak. Sucks, I was one of the numb nuts that had AAPL 1000 written in stone. Still made out.
    Sold NLY
    Sold MDLZ

    Added KRE, interest rates going up are going to be good for regional banks. Rather than target specific banks, I decided to go for an ETF.

    So, opinions? I'm 122% up on STX, anyone follow it? I'm thinking of taking the profit.
     
  2. Concordia

    Concordia Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    5,773
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    Oct 6, 2004
    
    Q. v., "pennies and steamrollers."
     
  3. danL32

    danL32 Member

    Messages:
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    Jul 11, 2013
    I have also been long JWN since around 55 bucks... i'd love to lock in some gains/write some calls, but I believe the anniversary sale is a catalyst that could (finally) break the stock out...

    -----
    On another note... does anybody else think this weak China growth story is a little overplayed? It seems to me to be the story of the month. I mean, last month all anyone cared about was the Nikkei..

    I'm long NKE; they have been doing everything right lately. Yet, their stock hasn't moved with their performance due to the China story. Thinking about adding to my position on a pullback. Some may think the stock is expensive, but I do not think their growth is stopping long term.

    -----
    idfnl--- KRE looks pretty good to me. I was thinking about buying some PBCT during the recent correction, but never pulled the trigger..


    jbarwick- love VNO, but I am a little biased as I have been in it for a long time.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2013
  4. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    Dec 6, 2008
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    VA
    

    I don't think you can believe anything at all out of China, good or bad. Its rigged to play the market for their own benefit.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    Mar 10, 2012
    Mercantilist nations do well during long and sustained periods of global liquidity expansion, but quite poorly when liquidity contracts globally. Putting the Hang Seng in a portfolio, for an extended period of time, seems like a five minute macro trade.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2013
  6. phreak

    phreak Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    Apr 17, 2008
    

    I'm on the other side of that trade and will look to give some back at ~$72, hopefully within a few months

    Chart has a ton of long term momentum. It's been on an upswing since the IPO

    Only major struggles were the result of insider selling from a secondary offering, which is over

    It's still a growth stock with exploding revenues and a pps that is cheap for their growth rates

    And management has been conservative with earnings estimates so be very careful shorting through earnings because they will likely beat
     
  7. phreak

    phreak Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,533
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    Apr 17, 2008
    

    I'm on the other side of that trade and will look to give some back at ~$72, hopefully within a few months

    Chart has a ton of long term momentum. It's been on an upswing since the IPO

    Only major struggles were the result of insider selling from a secondary offering, which is over

    It's still a growth stock with exploding revenues and a pps that is cheap for their growth rates

    And management has been conservative with earnings estimates so be very careful shorting through earnings because they will likely beat
     
  8. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    12,590
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    Jan 3, 2008
    Location:
    Princeton, NJ
    

    This sounds like a shakey ground to stand on. I've been keeping an eye on a few of these on and off over the past couple years. They seem to have been eroding in the way of price due to these qualities, especially now with the rising rates.

    The dividend is attractive, but if it's at risk and also stands to simply offset the decline in the stock, then where are you? A quick look at the ticker shows me that It pays out $4/share and it's roughly $15/share off of 52 week highs. Where you have many stocks paying 3-4% that have seen cap gains over the year.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2013
  9. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    VA
    

    Rising rates are triggering a lot of money to shift and I wouldn't want to get caught out trying to collect a big dividend here. It was fine while we were at 4.5% down to 3.5% because it was trending down. I don't see us revisiting levels below 4.5% of any significance and only expect that we'll be above 5 in the mid term. None of it makes these positions attractive. I'm out of REITS all together save for WY which isn't the same sort of business model anyway.
     
  10. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Well-Known Member

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    Princeton, NJ
    It's been a pretty aggressive shift, I think a great majority have determined that in fixed assets there is going to be a lot of long term decline in pricing, so...time to bail!
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    VA
    

    What's your take on regional banks?
     
  12. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Well-Known Member

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    I havent done any research on them outside of the very broad. My understanding (and it may be incorrect) is that when they need to compete with the largest banks they have a hard time doing so on every level. If they are competing on rate, then they are losing margin, ect. One of the reasons I would rather own big banks.

    There were sooo many small banks that failed during the GEC that I have a very hard time considering them.
     
  13. danL32

    danL32 Member

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    Jul 11, 2013
    phreak- I definitely agree with some of your analysis.. some things you brought up are my main reasoning behind buying puts rather than shorting.

    On another note, I recently came across a company Cynosure (CYNO). Seems to have a real interesting business going, and they just acquired their main competitor. Anyone have any insight on this one?
     
  14. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    VA
    

    C had some solid earnings. I'm finally green on it after buying at 4.80, before the reverse split. I had to watch that dog go down to 22.

    Regionals have been a drag for years. But with interest on deposits/locked in CDs, they are able to trade treasuries at a guaranteed profit. The combination of how badly those shares have been beaten up and this gap, there is now some value to be unlocked. At least that's my sense. And treasuries continue to rise.
     
  15. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    Location:
    Princeton, NJ
    Treasuries have risen, but my expectation moving forward is the opposite. That is a long time to wait on C, but similar to BAC once they begin to show signs of the ability to produce a regular/stable income and pay out dividends they should rise to more reasonable levels.
     
  16. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    VA
    Loving EPZM.

    Got in pre-market this morning in the mid 37's and it just hit 41.38. Nice 12% in a day, but I'm holding. This stock has a nice story to tell and a lot of momentum. Check it out.
     
  17. jbarwick

    jbarwick Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    Nov 28, 2012
    EPZM was rated a buy by an analyst on June 26th and it is up 50% since then. Though analyst estimates aren't worth a whole lot most times.
     
  18. jbarwick

    jbarwick Well-Known Member

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    EPZM up another 7% already today. Good call.
     
  19. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    VA
    

    Make that 11% today. It hit 44.75. I'm up over 20% on this in 2 days. Profit taking is very tempting here.
     
  20. edmorel

    edmorel Well-Known Member

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    Mar 10, 2006
    Location:
    NYC
    

    man, forgot all about this threak.

    I took about a $13 a share hit on CLF when I sold it and very proud that I stayed away from it as it kept dropping.

    Still hold DMND.

    Sold HLF around $40, bought it back around $43 and still hold that.

    I bought GBX at $18.50 and sold around $23.50 and would buy again under $20.00

    Bought and sold MAS twice. First time bought at $15.00 and sold at $20. Second time bought at $19.00 and sold at $22.00, bought it a third time at $19.70 and am holding onto that right now.

    Bought TWI at $20.80 and sold around $25.00. Bought back again at $19.10 and still holding that.

    Bought TITN around $22.00 and still holding that.

    Bought USG around $24.00, holding it.

    Bought LPX around $18.00, holding it.
     

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