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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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  2. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Check out NES boys. Bought my first stake in it today. Its a rock bottom with good potential upside.


    Made a nice trade on MDSO. Bought it 2 weeks ago and 67 and it just hit 80. This will be the idiot moment I don't sell and it will be at 67 again next week. You watch.
     
  3. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    What are the reasons to buy NES? I guess you could hope for a little bump to $3 for a gamble but they are just heading downhill form a historical perspective. And with Egypt, take the gains you can get or at least put it a stop somewhere to keep some gain. I don't understand why people don't use stops or sell a portion of their gain and let the rest ride with a stop at break even.
     
  4. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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    Its beaten to hell, I'm counting on other states adopting Illinois cleanup laws which would be a boon for the stock. In addition, at this level its a buyout candidate.
     
  5. Texasmade

    Texasmade Senior member

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    Anyone see Linn Energy getting beat to shit due to an SEC inquiry relating to the accounting of the derivatives book and nonGAAP measures. Linn is taking down the whole MLP E&P sector.
     
  6. lawyerdad

    lawyerdad Senior member

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    Maybe because they anticipate bigger gains down the road and/or don't want the tax hit of selling now if there is a dip to their stop? What's relevant is the current value of your investment on a given day and what you expect over whatever your chosen timeline is, not whether it was worth more less when you bought it. Putting in a stop just you can say you exited the position with a gain may preserve internet bragging rights may be psychologically rewarding but isn't necessarily an effective investment strategy.
     
  7. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    I see these points but if you are hoping for law adoption to boost the stock then it is more of a gamble in my eyes. But you are in Virginia so maybe you have some influence? @Lawyerdad people are scared of paying taxes for some reason but it means you gained money. Maybe not in the most tax efficient manner but walking out with a 12.6% gain after 35% STCG is not a bad thing. From the sound of his post it was like he was scared of the stock returning to 67 which means he should either sell and take his quick 2 week gain or let it ride and kick himself if it never returns.

    I will note that after an investment soured and I lost 70% of its value over night so my risk has been skewed because of this going forward. It takes risk to make money and it has been an internal battle of taking on more risk versus the safe route so it is tough sometimes to let investments ride for too long. My passive investments have been on the up for the past few years but my personal fun account hasn't seen the same gains.
     
  8. idfnl

    idfnl Senior member

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  9. Concordia

    Concordia Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    It's always a good idea to get a notion of your strengths and weaknesses. 2 years is too short to know for sure, but perhaps you're better at thinking strategically than acting tactically.
     
  10. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    Does anyone else think US government bonds are starting to look attractive at this price?
     
  11. Concordia

    Concordia Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    So far so good. Not sure if the market has recognized everything that might be happening soon or not. But I'm up about 55% from purchase in the listed stock.

    MLPs are interesting beasts. The accounting can be really complex, but one thing to remember is that the GP has a huge incentive to increase distributions after the IPO. That usually means that MLPs will go public as early as possible, with a lot of cheap assets not yet ladled onto its balance sheet. In the early days, when the sponsor still holds a large piece of the LP interest as well as the GP, that means that management is very much on your side.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2013
  12. Cantabrigian

    Cantabrigian Senior member

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    Tend to think not.

    If 10s are paying only 60bps more than target inflation and it looks like there will be a massive increase in net supply starting probably in Sep.

    If you're looking at 2 or 3yr maybe.
     
  13. Hannerhan

    Hannerhan Senior member

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    EMES is another recent MLP that I own, and another where the GP is a big owner and highly incentivized to make it rain soon. It's primarily a frac sand business.
     
  14. seeldoger47

    seeldoger47 Senior member

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    That is my time frame.
     
  15. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Picking up a little bit of that...may add more later.

    My AGNC shares have been beaten down. Dividend still seems solid, but questions about the fed and future interest rates have battered the share price. This means it is now yielding more than it was before (back up above 19%) so I am not going to sell, but it is making me wary for the future. The loss in share price has wiped out the dividends I have received over the time I have held it (I think I started buying it in 2010) but I can see it coming back if the dividends hold.
     
  16. Concordia

    Concordia Senior member Dubiously Honored

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    Well, levered fixed income is something to watch carefully in this environment.
     
  17. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    I would be curious to how they would be effected by a change in the rate. Whats the advantage of owning a company like this over buying MBS?

    I generally avoid anything aggressively levered, then tend to implode at the darndest times.
     
  18. otc

    otc Senior member

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    The advantage is the 15-20% yield it has had. The interest rate risk they face is that their short term borrowing window will cost close to or as much as the MBS they hold. At the same time, when the mortgage rates go up, they are left holding low-paying securities that they may have to post additional collateral for (although they would then be able to buy higher yielding MBS to make up for it). I think they had a presentation last year that said that a sudden 100bp increase in mortgage rates would knock their NAV down 10%. I have some friends who are condo-shopping, and the rates they are seeing now are a good deal higher than what they were seeing a month or so ago...mirring the decline in AGNC's price which was over 30 in mid-May.

    They should be ok as long as their short term funding rates stay low and residential rates go up gradually.

    Honestly though, I partially hold them as an alternative to owning my own highly levered piece of residential real estate. If I were to purchase a home, I would exit the position (and some other REITs) since a mortgage on a condo is the only high-leverage real estate instrument I need.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2013
  19. danL32

    danL32 Member

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    What's up guys...long time lurker here


    Thinking about buying $KORS puts at these levels.. anyone have any opinion on the stock? Doing some more homework now..
     
  20. jbarwick

    jbarwick Senior member

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    I told my fiancee I would rather own REITs than a personal rental. Her grandfather was big into owning rentals as "it is better to own a hard asset than something on paper". It has been an interesting time convincing her larger companies will probably do a better job than us at rentals as we are not handy-people by any means.
     

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