• Hi, I am the owner and main administrator of Styleforum. If you find the forum useful and fun, please help support it by buying through the posted links on the forum. Our main, very popular sales thread, where the latest and best sales are listed, are posted HERE

    Purchases made through some of our links earns a commission for the forum and allows us to do the work of maintaining and improving it. Finally, thanks for being a part of this community. We realize that there are many choices today on the internet, and we have all of you to thank for making Styleforum the foremost destination for discussions of menswear.
  • This site contains affiliate links for which Styleforum may be compensated.
  • We would like to welcome House of Huntington as an official Affiliate Vendor. Shop past season Drake's, Nigel Cabourn, Private White V.C. and other menswear luxury brands at exceptional prices below retail. Please visit the Houise of Huntington thread and welcome them to the forum.

  • STYLE. COMMUNITY. GREAT CLOTHING.

    Bored of counting likes on social networks? At Styleforum, you’ll find rousing discussions that go beyond strings of emojis.

    Click Here to join Styleforum's thousands of style enthusiasts today!

    Styleforum is supported in part by commission earning affiliate links sitewide. Please support us by using them. You may learn more here.

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Piobaire

Not left of center?
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
81,723
Reaction score
63,071
I sold about 95% of my equities, albeit, closer to the 3450 level. I won't step in again until S&P hits 2,500. I am however, continuing to put incremental 401K contributions into equities as a bit of a hedge.

Just demonstrating my point here and not trying to be a dick. You sold at 3450 and right now it's at 4160 or about 21% higher than your sale price. To get back down to 2500 a 40% correction would be required. Could happen and you'll be sitting pretty if it does while I'm paying the bills with tendies.
 

brokencycle

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
28,287
Reaction score
29,993
Yes, I personally think a correction will be 25% or more.

If there was a 25% correction tomorrow, I would still be up where I was a year ago.

I worked with a guy who has been sitting on cash in his 401k for 4 years now because he's convinced the market is going to correct. At no point in the last 4 years would he have been better off holding cash vs an S&P500 index fund. March 20 might have been close, but he's lost out on doubling his money in 4 years. If we have a 25% correction tomorrow and he buys, he'd still have missed out on 50% gains over 4 years.
 

jbarwick

Distinguished Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
Messages
8,695
Reaction score
9,634
Ah I see the poster now. The argument has been the same with him. I don't think he has mentioned a line in the sand to buy if there were a 25% correction. "I know it's down 25%, but I can just tell it will go to 35-40% down."

I know we are at highs now but the reason momentum is a factor is because highs usually beget more highs. ATHs cluster and keep going higher. Also, we can say the same things over and over but it really takes someone to learn on their own to change their minds.
 

gnatty8

Stylish Dinosaur
Joined
Nov 12, 2006
Messages
12,643
Reaction score
6,139
Just demonstrating my point here and not trying to be a dick. You sold at 3450 and right now it's at 4160 or about 21% higher than your sale price. To get back down to 2500 a 40% correction would be required. Could happen and you'll be sitting pretty if it does while I'm paying the bills with tendies.

In my mind, a 40% correction is is not out of the question.
 

BlakeRVA

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2012
Messages
754
Reaction score
2,005
I think you're under-estimating the power of the 401K, $3T American's have sitting in cash, and the rise of easy to use investing apps like Robinhood.

A correction could be coming, but the glory of the stock market is regardless of how optimistic or pessimistic you may feel, there is money to be made in both directions. Timing the market and pulling your money out until X happens is usually a fools game.
 

brokencycle

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
28,287
Reaction score
29,993
In my mind, a 40% correction is is not out of the question.

Sure, a 40% "correction" could come, but that would make it among the worst bear markets in 100 years.

1618856389183.png


There's always a time frame problem in any of these discussions, but an investor buying at the bottom in 2009 to now would have made 400% in a decade. There was a 28% drop, so they still would have been up 288% at the 2020 trough.
1618856408508.png


You do you, but I rather risk buying and losing 40% overnight than sit out and risk missing out on huge gains while I wait for that inevitable drop.

 

Piobaire

Not left of center?
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
81,723
Reaction score
63,071
I think we all have to invest as we see fit and should honour the calls we're all making as valid personal analysis and choices.
 

otc

Stylish Dinosaur
Joined
Aug 15, 2008
Messages
24,451
Reaction score
19,024
And I just don't see the 40% thesis. Or even the 25% thesis.

February/March 2020? Sure. I'd question it, but I can at least see the thesis. Global pandemic is about to cripple international trade, drive everyone out of work, and kill a bunch of people.

But today? After we've started to figure out how to live and work with it and have come up with functional vaccines? What's going to cause the drop?

At this point it might as well have been sitting in 2017 and saying "I think a crash is coming". It would take some unexpected event out of left field--another pandemic that's worse, war breaks out, lithium ion batteries suddenly all stop working.
 

double00

Stylish Dinosaur
Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2014
Messages
16,936
Reaction score
17,545
Sure, a 40% "correction" could come, but that would make it among the worst bear markets in 100 years.

View attachment 1596290

There's always a time frame problem in any of these discussions, but an investor buying at the bottom in 2009 to now would have made 400% in a decade. There was a 28% drop, so they still would have been up 288% at the 2020 trough.
View attachment 1596291

You do you, but I rather risk buying and losing 40% overnight than sit out and risk missing out on huge gains while I wait for that inevitable drop.


from 1999 to 2009 how did this investor do with s&p?
 

brokencycle

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
28,287
Reaction score
29,993
from 1999 to 2009 how did this investor do with s&p?

Like I said, you can always pick arbitrary points... I literally conceded that in my post. The point is, on average, over the normal investor's lifetime, they will see gains. Sure, throwing a ton of money in before a black swan event will have large short/medium-term losses. I don't think anyone is arguing it is a sure thing or there aren't periods where you could lose money.
 

jbarwick

Distinguished Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
Messages
8,695
Reaction score
9,634
I mean there are alternative assets you could invest in if you think the stock market is too hot but based on some of the other random markets popping up with huge valuations, those seem more in bubble territory.

NFTs (most likely current bubble), Dogecoin specifically (bubble of the week), Magic the Gathering cards, Sports cards, Pokemon cards, air-cooled Porsches, etc...name your alt investment and it could look like a bubble. Hell people are calling housing a bubble again but I don't see people putting out huge amounts of money without a job these days.

My one wonder regarding housing is how high it can go on investor demand. Investor demand never seems to delineate between buy to rent versus buy to flip. There is not much under $500K in the Nashville market and to rent out with a reasonable return you would have to charge $3K+ per month to make a ~7% return.
 

Piobaire

Not left of center?
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
81,723
Reaction score
63,071
Yeah, trying to fool us with your rational analysis is not going to fly here! What happened if you dumped your life's fortune into SPY on March 9, 2009 and then sold it all on March 16th, 2020? YOU'D BE SCREWED is what!
 

NorCal

Distinguished Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2007
Messages
9,979
Reaction score
4,670
I mean there are alternative assets you could invest in if you think the stock market is too hot but based on some of the other random markets popping up with huge valuations, those seem more in bubble territory.

NFTs (most likely current bubble), Dogecoin specifically (bubble of the week), Magic the Gathering cards, Sports cards, Pokemon cards, air-cooled Porsches, etc...name your alt investment and it could look like a bubble. Hell people are calling housing a bubble again but I don't see people putting out huge amounts of money without a job these days.

My one wonder regarding housing is how high it can go on investor demand. Investor demand never seems to delineate between buy to rent versus buy to flip. There is not much under $500K in the Nashville market and to rent out with a reasonable return you would have to charge $3K+ per month to make a ~7% return.
As someone that actually plays MTG, seeing investment bros get into hoarding as an alt investment makes me sad.
 

Featured Sponsor

How important is full vs half canvas to you for heavier sport jackets?

  • Definitely full canvas only

    Votes: 55 35.5%
  • Half canvas is fine

    Votes: 60 38.7%
  • Really don't care

    Votes: 17 11.0%
  • Depends on fabric

    Votes: 27 17.4%
  • Depends on price

    Votes: 28 18.1%

Forum statistics

Threads
505,186
Messages
10,579,227
Members
223,895
Latest member
amylguardinfo
Top