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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Piobaire

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I sold about 95% of my equities, albeit, closer to the 3450 level. I won't step in again until S&P hits 2,500. I am however, continuing to put incremental 401K contributions into equities as a bit of a hedge.
Just demonstrating my point here and not trying to be a dick. You sold at 3450 and right now it's at 4160 or about 21% higher than your sale price. To get back down to 2500 a 40% correction would be required. Could happen and you'll be sitting pretty if it does while I'm paying the bills with tendies.
 

brokencycle

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Yes, I personally think a correction will be 25% or more.
If there was a 25% correction tomorrow, I would still be up where I was a year ago.

I worked with a guy who has been sitting on cash in his 401k for 4 years now because he's convinced the market is going to correct. At no point in the last 4 years would he have been better off holding cash vs an S&P500 index fund. March 20 might have been close, but he's lost out on doubling his money in 4 years. If we have a 25% correction tomorrow and he buys, he'd still have missed out on 50% gains over 4 years.
 

jbarwick

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Ah I see the poster now. The argument has been the same with him. I don't think he has mentioned a line in the sand to buy if there were a 25% correction. "I know it's down 25%, but I can just tell it will go to 35-40% down."

I know we are at highs now but the reason momentum is a factor is because highs usually beget more highs. ATHs cluster and keep going higher. Also, we can say the same things over and over but it really takes someone to learn on their own to change their minds.
 

gnatty8

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Just demonstrating my point here and not trying to be a dick. You sold at 3450 and right now it's at 4160 or about 21% higher than your sale price. To get back down to 2500 a 40% correction would be required. Could happen and you'll be sitting pretty if it does while I'm paying the bills with tendies.
In my mind, a 40% correction is is not out of the question.
 

BlakeRVA

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I think you're under-estimating the power of the 401K, $3T American's have sitting in cash, and the rise of easy to use investing apps like Robinhood.

A correction could be coming, but the glory of the stock market is regardless of how optimistic or pessimistic you may feel, there is money to be made in both directions. Timing the market and pulling your money out until X happens is usually a fools game.
 

brokencycle

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In my mind, a 40% correction is is not out of the question.
Sure, a 40% "correction" could come, but that would make it among the worst bear markets in 100 years.

1618856389183.png


There's always a time frame problem in any of these discussions, but an investor buying at the bottom in 2009 to now would have made 400% in a decade. There was a 28% drop, so they still would have been up 288% at the 2020 trough.
1618856408508.png


You do you, but I rather risk buying and losing 40% overnight than sit out and risk missing out on huge gains while I wait for that inevitable drop.

 

Piobaire

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I think we all have to invest as we see fit and should honour the calls we're all making as valid personal analysis and choices.
 

otc

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And I just don't see the 40% thesis. Or even the 25% thesis.

February/March 2020? Sure. I'd question it, but I can at least see the thesis. Global pandemic is about to cripple international trade, drive everyone out of work, and kill a bunch of people.

But today? After we've started to figure out how to live and work with it and have come up with functional vaccines? What's going to cause the drop?

At this point it might as well have been sitting in 2017 and saying "I think a crash is coming". It would take some unexpected event out of left field--another pandemic that's worse, war breaks out, lithium ion batteries suddenly all stop working.
 

double00

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Sure, a 40% "correction" could come, but that would make it among the worst bear markets in 100 years.

View attachment 1596290

There's always a time frame problem in any of these discussions, but an investor buying at the bottom in 2009 to now would have made 400% in a decade. There was a 28% drop, so they still would have been up 288% at the 2020 trough.
View attachment 1596291

You do you, but I rather risk buying and losing 40% overnight than sit out and risk missing out on huge gains while I wait for that inevitable drop.

from 1999 to 2009 how did this investor do with s&p?
 

brokencycle

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from 1999 to 2009 how did this investor do with s&p?
Like I said, you can always pick arbitrary points... I literally conceded that in my post. The point is, on average, over the normal investor's lifetime, they will see gains. Sure, throwing a ton of money in before a black swan event will have large short/medium-term losses. I don't think anyone is arguing it is a sure thing or there aren't periods where you could lose money.
 

jbarwick

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I mean there are alternative assets you could invest in if you think the stock market is too hot but based on some of the other random markets popping up with huge valuations, those seem more in bubble territory.

NFTs (most likely current bubble), Dogecoin specifically (bubble of the week), Magic the Gathering cards, Sports cards, Pokemon cards, air-cooled Porsches, etc...name your alt investment and it could look like a bubble. Hell people are calling housing a bubble again but I don't see people putting out huge amounts of money without a job these days.

My one wonder regarding housing is how high it can go on investor demand. Investor demand never seems to delineate between buy to rent versus buy to flip. There is not much under $500K in the Nashville market and to rent out with a reasonable return you would have to charge $3K+ per month to make a ~7% return.
 

Piobaire

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Yeah, trying to fool us with your rational analysis is not going to fly here! What happened if you dumped your life's fortune into SPY on March 9, 2009 and then sold it all on March 16th, 2020? YOU'D BE SCREWED is what!
 

NorCal

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I mean there are alternative assets you could invest in if you think the stock market is too hot but based on some of the other random markets popping up with huge valuations, those seem more in bubble territory.

NFTs (most likely current bubble), Dogecoin specifically (bubble of the week), Magic the Gathering cards, Sports cards, Pokemon cards, air-cooled Porsches, etc...name your alt investment and it could look like a bubble. Hell people are calling housing a bubble again but I don't see people putting out huge amounts of money without a job these days.

My one wonder regarding housing is how high it can go on investor demand. Investor demand never seems to delineate between buy to rent versus buy to flip. There is not much under $500K in the Nashville market and to rent out with a reasonable return you would have to charge $3K+ per month to make a ~7% return.
As someone that actually plays MTG, seeing investment bros get into hoarding as an alt investment makes me sad.
 

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