venividivicibj
Stylish Dinosaur
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So the only piss off with SPY climbing like this is I had a new tranch of 395 sitting there for a few weeks now. I'm being patient as I keep telling myself a pull back is imminent.
Winning investment strategy! There is no losing when having a drink.It has been stomach turning to be out of the market (well, mostly, I still have about 25% of my investments in equities) these last few months and watching the S&P hit new records ffs. I almost capitulated last week, but recall that one of the indicators of a correction is relentless increases and record highs before the bubble bursts, so I stepped away from my laptop and had a whiskey instead.
It has been stomach turning to be out of the market (well, mostly, I still have about 25% of my investments in equities) these last few months and watching the S&P hit new records ffs. I almost capitulated last week, but recall that one of the indicators of a correction is relentless increases and record highs before the bubble bursts, so I stepped away from my laptop and had a whiskey instead.
I think there's lots at play even if you're counting on a bubble bursting. How far is the fall and how long? Did sitting out mean you still lost upside as the bottom of the trough is higher than your original entry point might have been? How much more does it climb and what will the trough be? Think about this: a 25% pullback drops SPY to about 313. Do you think we've got a 25% drop coming? The bottom during the COVID crisis was 35% and just a month later had risen to be down only 19% from the former high. Is another systemic shock coming like that?
IDK, that stuff I'm still holding from last year I bought at $230 is pretty tasty, and except for this last tranch I'm trying to nab, everything but my bare minimum cash reserves is in the market. Given my timeline I'm pretty comfortable with that.
Yes, I personally think a correction will be 25% or more.
When do you think this will happen? You have been saying it will for some time now, so just wondering as to when your expectation for event is, given what I said above. I mean, for sure here's going to be a correction at some point, but have you waited so long your entry point will now be higher post-correction than it would have been when you first decided things were over-priced and built up your cash position?