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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Piobaire

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So the only piss off with SPY climbing like this is I had a new tranch of 395 sitting there for a few weeks now. I'm being patient as I keep telling myself a pull back is imminent.
 

gnatty8

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So the only piss off with SPY climbing like this is I had a new tranch of 395 sitting there for a few weeks now. I'm being patient as I keep telling myself a pull back is imminent.
It has been stomach turning to be out of the market (well, mostly, I still have about 25% of my investments in equities) these last few months and watching the S&P hit new records ffs. I almost capitulated last week, but recall that one of the indicators of a correction is relentless increases and record highs before the bubble bursts, so I stepped away from my laptop and had a whiskey instead.
 

Texasmade

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It has been stomach turning to be out of the market (well, mostly, I still have about 25% of my investments in equities) these last few months and watching the S&P hit new records ffs. I almost capitulated last week, but recall that one of the indicators of a correction is relentless increases and record highs before the bubble bursts, so I stepped away from my laptop and had a whiskey instead.
Winning investment strategy! There is no losing when having a drink.
 

Piobaire

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I think there's lots at play even if you're counting on a bubble bursting. How far is the fall and how long? Did sitting out mean you still lost upside as the bottom of the trough is higher than your original entry point might have been? How much more does it climb and what will the trough be? Think about this: a 25% pullback drops SPY to about 313. Do you think we've got a 25% drop coming? The bottom during the COVID crisis was 35% and just a month later had risen to be down only 19% from the former high. Is another systemic shock coming like that?

IDK, that stuff I'm still holding from last year I bought at $230 is pretty tasty, and except for this last tranch I'm trying to nab, everything but my bare minimum cash reserves is in the market. Given my timeline I'm pretty comfortable with that.
 

Piobaire

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IMO, if you want an undeniable bubble, it's crypto and crypto miners. MARA is such a mining company and has a market cap of over $4 billion. It has three employees with a revenue of $4.4 million and net income of ($10.5) million. One of the stonks boards I read has a bunch of chimps getting assigned shares in the 50s last Friday. Don't write CSPs on stocks like that!
 

lawyerdad

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It has been stomach turning to be out of the market (well, mostly, I still have about 25% of my investments in equities) these last few months and watching the S&P hit new records ffs. I almost capitulated last week, but recall that one of the indicators of a correction is relentless increases and record highs before the bubble bursts, so I stepped away from my laptop and had a whiskey instead.
I have no idea whether the inevitable pullback happens soon or farther out, but I’m pretty sure relentless increases and record highs are also characteristic of mid-stage rallies.
 

brokencycle

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I don't claim to be smart enough to time the market, so I just keep buying. I'm fat, dumb, and happy with my gains. Maybe a bubble bursts, maybe it doesn't. Maybe it only deflates a bit. I rather have bought all the way up this last year's gains and then continued to buy right before the bubble bursts than sat out and missed out over the 50%+ gains over the last year.

Put another way, I wasn't upset or disappointed about investing money last Feb to watch it crash in April. I won't be if the market drops 20% tomorrow. If it does, I'll just accelerate my buying.
 

Piobaire

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I'll make more tendies.

 

Piobaire

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Alright, guiz, if you want a quick scalp short Peloton (PTON) at open. I'm not going to write naked shorts as those scare me but should be good for some fast tendies if you're so inclined.
 

gnatty8

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I think there's lots at play even if you're counting on a bubble bursting. How far is the fall and how long? Did sitting out mean you still lost upside as the bottom of the trough is higher than your original entry point might have been? How much more does it climb and what will the trough be? Think about this: a 25% pullback drops SPY to about 313. Do you think we've got a 25% drop coming? The bottom during the COVID crisis was 35% and just a month later had risen to be down only 19% from the former high. Is another systemic shock coming like that?

IDK, that stuff I'm still holding from last year I bought at $230 is pretty tasty, and except for this last tranch I'm trying to nab, everything but my bare minimum cash reserves is in the market. Given my timeline I'm pretty comfortable with that.
Yes, I personally think a correction will be 25% or more.
 

Piobaire

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Yes, I personally think a correction will be 25% or more.
When do you think this will happen? You have been saying it will for some time now, so just wondering as to when your expectation for event is, given what I said above. I mean, for sure here's going to be a correction at some point, but have you waited so long your entry point will now be higher post-correction than it would have been when you first decided things were over-priced and built up your cash position?
 

gnatty8

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When do you think this will happen? You have been saying it will for some time now, so just wondering as to when your expectation for event is, given what I said above. I mean, for sure here's going to be a correction at some point, but have you waited so long your entry point will now be higher post-correction than it would have been when you first decided things were over-priced and built up your cash position?
Expectation is within the next 6 months. If it hasn't happened, I'll probably shift some cash back into market, and take it as an opportunity cost and move on
 

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