Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. otc

    otc Senior member

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    Thinkorswim has decent resources, along with several examples of trades you can follow. You can download their demo account and get a feel for it with paper money.

    To be honest though, I feel it's a lose-lose game for most retail traders. There are too many variables to hurt you.


    I have a thinkorswim account (my roth IRA is through them) and it is option enabled but I have not used any.

    I have considered using options for an entry play for a stock I want to be long on. Could use the options to make a few extra bucks off the entry but unless you want to spend a lot of time thinking and researching....you are going to lose.

    Also, bear in mind that a lot of successful options strategies are trade heavy...so you have to be able to afford the trading fees and you have to be able to trade often when the market is open. Buying into the occasional long position is no big deal (since you are not super sensitive to the entry price) but if you work a normal job during trading hours...good luck running successful options strategies.
     


  2. javyn

    javyn Senior member

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    What do you all think of NOV, topheavy or still room to run?

    Got in years ago right before the split, was going to sell at around 90 a share, but had to evacuate for the hurricane and had collapsed by the time I had a chance to think about selling again.

    Now we're back up to 80 and I'm considering taking profits.

    Wanting to move into physical silver, but, commodities look like they are topping too. I just dunno. If silver can close above 38, then I'd be convinced of a breakout there.
     


  3. fairholme_wannabe

    fairholme_wannabe Senior member

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    Typically too big a fish to interest me, but does anyone have any opinions on MSFT. Specifically, I'm trying to figure out what I'm missing re: justification of its current valuation.

    Valuation looks really nice--10.9x earnings & 9.0x earnings net of net cash (i.e. substantial discount to the market at large) with a growth profile that probably looks pretty similar, if not slightly better, to the market. Balance sheet is obviously incredible. It's the player in the spheres where it generates most of its operating profit (Windows & Business Division). Though tablets are definitely stealing share from PC's, 2011 & 2012 worldwide PC ship growth expected to be ~ 10.5% & 13.6% (Gartner). That to say, operating profits should definitely be growing faster than GDP for the immediate future--yet it's being valued like an perpetuity with zero future growth (when you net out net cash).

    So--what am I missing?
     


  4. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    Typically too big a fish to interest me, but does anyone have any opinions on MSFT. Specifically, I'm trying to figure out what I'm missing re: justification of its current valuation.

    Valuation looks really nice--10.9x earnings & 9.0x earnings net of net cash (i.e. substantial discount to the market at large) with a growth profile that probably looks pretty similar, if not slightly better, to the market. Balance sheet is obviously incredible. It's the player in the spheres where it generates most of its operating profit (Windows & Business Division). Though tablets are definitely stealing share from PC's, 2011 & 2012 worldwide PC ship growth expected to be ~ 10.5% & 13.6% (Gartner). That to say, operating profits should definitely be growing faster than GDP for the immediate future--yet it's being valued like an perpetuity with zero future growth (when you net out net cash).

    So--what am I missing?



    All you need to know is AAPL R&D budget from 2000 - 2010 = 8.5 Billion which brought 2 generations of Ipads and I want to say 3 generations of Iphones.

    MSFT's R&D budget for 2010 alone?? 8.7 billion dollars. How this company does it amazes me.
     


  5. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    How they dont do better amazes me.
     


  6. mikeman

    mikeman Senior member

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    Wanting to move into physical silver, but, commodities look like they are topping too. I just dunno. If silver can close above 38, then I'd be convinced of a breakout there.

    Looks like you got your 38.xx
     


  7. Levator Superioris

    Levator Superioris Well-Known Member

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    Anyone doing ETFs? There are now funds that replicate shorting bonds, TBT - short treasury, GLL short gold x2... lets the regular investor hedge in ways never before possible.
     


  8. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    How they dont do better amazes me.

    I have a friend who sometimes goes to the CES. He told me many times Microsoft will tell people point blank "This will never be released to the public, but look how cool this is." I mean what MSFT done in the last 5 yrs?? Zune? Total flop. X-Box Kinect? You need $0 in research, all you have to do is look at the Wii. That company makes money hand over fist and yet they were interested in buying Yahoo?? Why?
     


  9. SkinnyGoomba

    SkinnyGoomba Senior member

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    As an equity investor I'm concerned with their potential for growth, ability to continue to pay out their current dividend plus increase it and their ability to maintain a large competitive edge. The stock hasn't done anything in 10 years and the company itself hasn't made anything that's really made me interested in it since Windows. I don't view MSFT as a high risk company, but I do see better options.
     


  10. svd

    svd Senior member

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    Although I really wanted to go long on F at $1.01. I knew they weren't going BK, hell the CEO came on Squawk Box and said as much.

    So no, I'm not smarter than any average investor.


    I bought F at about $1.20 and sold a couple weeks later when it ran up to $2.25. Still liked the idea but thought I could buy in again after a dip with such a fast run up - that of course never materialized. Learned a good lesson there.

    Typically too big a fish to interest me, but does anyone have any opinions on MSFT. Specifically, I'm trying to figure out what I'm missing re: justification of its current valuation.

    So--what am I missing?


    http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=9341

    This is one of the better writeups on MSFT out there. As long as you think of it as a value stock instead of a growth stock, and consider the full picture - everyone sees the failure of the mobile division and tablets eating away at PC sales - MSFT is in a lot more than that. it is a good company at a good price. I bought a few months ago and plan to hold on for a couple years expecting the valuation to catch up to the market as a whole.
     


  11. javyn

    javyn Senior member

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    Looks like you got your 38.xx

    Yes sir! Foaming at the mouth today, had my bro put in an order for a monster box of Maple Leafs [​IMG]
     


  12. mikeman

    mikeman Senior member

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    Yes sir! Foaming at the mouth today, had my bro put in an order for a monster box of Maple Leafs [​IMG]

    Damn! A monster box, now thats baller status. Very cool though.
     


  13. CYstyle

    CYstyle Senior member

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    Gonna short
    TZOO
    SINA
    SOHU
    YOKU
    BIDU
    FDX
    TSLA
    CRM
    OPEN

    possibly
    akpt
    nflx
    amzn

    hopefully I'm not wrong and won't be broke and have to sell all my shoes
     


  14. Slopho

    Slopho Senior member

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    ^ I agree about Netflix. The new contracts they're signing are not that great.
     


  15. javyn

    javyn Senior member

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    Damn! A monster box, now thats baller status. Very cool though.

    It's a question of whether my lazy bro can wake up before 2 pm and actually place and order and get them though. I just don't have time to do this shit at work.
     


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