• Hi, I am the owner and main administrator of Styleforum. If you find the forum useful and fun, please help support it by buying through the posted links on the forum. Our main, very popular sales thread, where the latest and best sales are listed, are posted HERE

    Purchases made through some of our links earns a commission for the forum and allows us to do the work of maintaining and improving it. Finally, thanks for being a part of this community. We realize that there are many choices today on the internet, and we have all of you to thank for making Styleforum the foremost destination for discussions of menswear.
  • This site contains affiliate links for which Styleforum may be compensated.
  • We would like to welcome House of Huntington as an official Affiliate Vendor. Shop past season Drake's, Nigel Cabourn, Private White V.C. and other menswear luxury brands at exceptional prices below retail. Please visit the Houise of Huntington thread and welcome them to the forum.

  • STYLE. COMMUNITY. GREAT CLOTHING.

    Bored of counting likes on social networks? At Styleforum, you’ll find rousing discussions that go beyond strings of emojis.

    Click Here to join Styleforum's thousands of style enthusiasts today!

    Styleforum is supported in part by commission earning affiliate links sitewide. Please support us by using them. You may learn more here.

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Hombre Secreto

Distinguished Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2007
Messages
6,076
Reaction score
3,187
Monetization of TSLA's core strengths? So car sales? Also, I wonder what happened to that engineer, TSLA fanboy who used to come around here and the car thread. Ram...something.

Tesla isn't really a "car company". They are going to focus on monetizing their self-driving software, and their battery technology. I think other companies (Japanese) will catch up with that technology, and that will be that.
 

Piobaire

Not left of center?
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
81,724
Reaction score
63,074
Limit orders were filled yesterday. Except for my cash reserves I'm back in.

:freeze:
 

lawyerdad

Lying Dog-faced Pony Soldier
Joined
Mar 10, 2006
Messages
27,006
Reaction score
17,139
I’m not as drastic as @gnatty8, but I do think we’re a good 10-20% too high
I’m inclined to agree but thinking about where the market “should be” is obviously replete with traps. One of the fundamental problems with that way of thinking is that even if you impute some degree of rationality and efficiency to the market, the demand side is driven not by the underlying current value of the economy or the universe of equities but by the feelz of the investing public about what’s going to happen in the future.
 

brokencycle

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
28,287
Reaction score
29,993
I’m inclined to agree but thinking about where the market “should be” is obviously replete with traps. One of the fundamental problems with that way of thinking is that even if you impute some degree of rationality and efficiency to the market, the demand side is driven not by the underlying current value of the economy or the universe of equities but by the feelz of the investing public about what’s going to happen in the future.

The Market is all knowing, all rational, and perfectly efficient. In libertopia, it is known
 

Texasmade

Stylish Dinosaur
Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 26, 2008
Messages
28,348
Reaction score
37,210
I’m inclined to agree but thinking about where the market “should be” is obviously replete with traps. One of the fundamental problems with that way of thinking is that even if you impute some degree of rationality and efficiency to the market, the demand side is driven not by the underlying current value of the economy or the universe of equities but by the feelz of the investing public about what’s going to happen in the future.
That’s why people should stop trying to be rational on values of stock. It’s just the greater fool theory. Is there a bigger idiot than me willing to pay a higher price than I did? The answer is normally always yes.
 

RedLantern

Distinguished Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2008
Messages
5,161
Reaction score
3,888
I’m still sitting in cash mostly. Going to start getting back in after the new year - mostly as a result of maxing out my 403b starting next year
 

Piobaire

Not left of center?
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
81,724
Reaction score
63,074
I made my big plays for the next several years and am satisfied being back in with the upside I netted from my big spring market timing foolishness. For obvious reasons I will stay a little heavy in cash until I'm re-employed.
 

brokencycle

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
28,287
Reaction score
29,993
My 401k and IRAs are up at least 20% in all my retirement accounts this year. My rollover IRA (since it is the easiest to calculate) is up over 100% in total since the election in 2016. If I had sold my shares at the end of January and re-purchased the exact same mix at the end of March, I would be up 71%. Kinda crazy.
 

gnatty8

Stylish Dinosaur
Joined
Nov 12, 2006
Messages
12,643
Reaction score
6,139
I’m not as drastic as @gnatty8, but I do think we’re a good 10-20% too high

Twenty percent would probably be where I'd put half of my money market investments back into the market. The other half would be when we hit thirty percent. Stock certificates are not wall art or dice in a craps game. Their value needs to be anchored to their ability to provide a reasonable return. At these levels, they do not provide a reasonable return in my opinion, and valuations are more driven by low interest rates, lack of better venues to park cash, "irrational exuberance" and so many other factors that just don't make sense in any traditional model of valuations. Maybe the traditional models are no longer applicable but seriously. I invest cash to earn cash, but the average dividend yield of the S&P500 is about 2% right now. If my investment horizon is longer term, I can earn that investing in government bonds with close to no risk (besides inflation which I do not see as a risk). Yes, a stock also has upside the government bonds do not in terms of potentially higher dividends in the future, but ultimately, I want cash back out and so should everybody else. Unless dividends begin to rise in the future to return that cash premium to investing in government bonds, where is the incentive? I just don't see it.
 

otc

Stylish Dinosaur
Joined
Aug 15, 2008
Messages
24,451
Reaction score
19,026
I'll dig out the research, but the problem with these timing things is you have to be really accurate.

If you predict like 75% accurately whether the market will go up or down next year, you still fail to beat the market over time.
 

gnatty8

Stylish Dinosaur
Joined
Nov 12, 2006
Messages
12,643
Reaction score
6,139
I'll dig out the research, but the problem with these timing things is you have to be really accurate.

If you predict like 75% accurately whether the market will go up or down next year, you still fail to beat the market over time.

Burton Malkiel, who wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is a strong believer in the idea that market timing is just a really awful idea. Link below to a really good interview with him. As for me, as soon as the next NFC Super Bowl win, I am back baby..

 

Featured Sponsor

How important is full vs half canvas to you for heavier sport jackets?

  • Definitely full canvas only

    Votes: 55 35.3%
  • Half canvas is fine

    Votes: 61 39.1%
  • Really don't care

    Votes: 17 10.9%
  • Depends on fabric

    Votes: 27 17.3%
  • Depends on price

    Votes: 28 17.9%

Forum statistics

Threads
505,207
Messages
10,579,321
Members
223,892
Latest member
cprice
Top