Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Texasmade]

If Trump's brand tours/rallies gain momentum, they are gonna sink these gains, and add to the WTF is gonna happen sentiment around the country.

Gonna wait this week, and see what Trump does. Maybe he will follow up with a Stimulus bill this week? November could end up being great in more ways than one...

Like Trump is going to do anything but play golf, tweet how the election was stolen, or have his team file bullshit lawsuits.

 

[gnatty8]

Are not markets efficient and forward looking though? If so, the upcoming work to get this under control should be priced in, no?

I'm not sure I believe that but isn't this the theory?

Interesting paper that uses the CAPE ratio . The CAPE ratio was first introduced in 1988 by Robert Shiller and John Campbell as an improvement on the traditional P/E ratio. This link here should let you see an adjusted version of the ratio that Shiller developed specifically for Barclays, but not sure how it is different from their original measure. Campbell and Shiller computed the CAPE ratio as the real value of the S&P 500 divided by the real earnings of companies in the index averaged over the most recent 10 years. The thinking was that averaging the denominator over a rolling 10-year window minimizes the impact of short-term earnings fluctuations on the ratio overall. They found that higher-than-average values of the CAPE ratio predicted lower-than-average future real returns on stocks over subsequent 10-year periods. At the end of Q3, the CAPE ratio stood at 30.9 which is over 50% higher than the long-term average (20.5) from 1960 to present. What is most interesting to me about the paper though, is not that it points out that this indicator could potentially be pointing to A) an over-valued market or B) returns over the next 10 years being less than they've been in the last 10 years, but what he says about investor's reactions to macroeconomic uncertainty (like the stuff we've been dealing with for the last 10 months or so) going forward.

Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data - San Francisco Fed

History suggests that elevated values of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio may indicate an overvalued stock market. A valuation model that uses a small set of economic variables can help account for movements in the CAPE ratio over the past six decades. One of these variables...

www.frbsf.org

 

[Hombre Secreto]

Like Trump is going to do anything but play golf, tweet how the election was stolen, or have his team file bullshit lawsuits.

He got out of bed for Pfizer, okay? Cut him some slack, he's had a rough week.

 

[Piobaire]

Seems like the software was overwhelmed yesterday at Fidelity as one of my accounts didn't seem to acknowledge my limit order. I guess I'm not all in yet and now I might hold out on that tranch.

 

[PhilKenSebben]

Seems like the software was overwhelmed yesterday at Fidelity as one of my accounts didn't seem to acknowledge my limit order. I guess I'm not all in yet and now I might hold out on that tranch.

I was something about software at a bunch of places was overwhelmed and people missed out all over the place. You would think that at this point these kinds of glitches would be ironed out ..

 

[Piobaire]

It's just good to see not all the glitches are in ballot counting software. Amirite?

 

[PhilKenSebben]

Turned out, Pfizer really is just a **** stock. Luckily, viatris will be even worse. Sigh. At least our CEO got to line his pockets. That is good

 

[HRoi]

I own PFE meself. While it’s up on vaccine news, I find it curious that it’s spurred so much of a rebound for such a huge part of the economy without getting that much of a bump for itself

 

[PhilKenSebben]

I own PFE meself. While it’s up on vaccine news, I find it curious that it’s spurred so much of a rebound for such a huge part of the economy without getting that much of a bump for itself

I don't think the market likes Albert Bourla, and honestly, there isn't that much positive. I also don't think the market really likes/understands the mylan sale. But who knows

 

[jbarwick]

EMs seem to have broken their resistance to the upside lately. They've been a dog for quite a while and haven't yet broke above their early 2018 high but worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Hombre Secreto]

Bought Expedia months ago for less than $50, and it sold for $80 a few months later. It's up to $125 now. This market is ******* nuts. Got rid of VTR today at $49. Don't think this positive vaccine news rally will last. Hope I am wrong, so I can dump WELL next.

 

[Omega Male]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...companies-have-racked-up-1-4-trillion-of-debt

 

[jbarwick]

That's why it's hard to short companies...they can limp along for a long time without going bankrupt.

 

[Omega Male]

Are there even any short sellers left after Tesla ripped, like, 500% this year?

 

[brokencycle]

Are there even any short sellers left after Tesla ripped, like, 500% this year?

Only idiots. Stonks only go up.