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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

otc

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Dammit.

I thought I had a workaround to still place my bet. Predictit has a "Will a woman be elected VP" contract, which is basically a biden contract and trades at about the same price.

So I go to make an account on IEM to place the other side of the bet and I get this:
1603983869169.png


WTF is this? In order to participate in the Iowa Electronic Market, I have to mail them a god damn check?

Now I understand why these markets are so inefficient.

Maybe I could fedex them a check before the odds shift?
 

Piobaire

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Sooo, back to stocks. Thinking of moving some money into SPY Monday or Tuesday.
 

Marc Voorhees

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Sooo, back to stocks. Thinking of moving some money into SPY Monday or Tuesday.
I thought you already did that? Are you chasing a bit?
 

Piobaire

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I put a small traunch in the other day but just a taste. I'm talking about putting the nut back into play.
 

HRoi

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WTF is this? In order to participate in the Iowa Electronic Market, I have to mail them a god damn check?

Now I understand why these markets are so inefficient.
I was thinking to myself that the catch in all this was that they sell your info to fraudsters, but this is pretty good too
 

otc

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Ok, I found a zero-risk trading strategy that I could implement.

The spreads on the "Electoral College Margin" market are out of whack in a way that allows for a Negative Risk trade.

Basically you buy all of the "No" contracts and you get paid money. There are 16 total options and only one can be yes...so if you buy all 16, you get paid out $15. How much does it cost to buy all 16? only $14.83.

They net out the risk of your trades, so once you have placed all 16 trades, they refund you back to your maximum loss...which in this case means they refund you back more than you paid.

I deposited $10 in my account and after a few iterations I have made $1.93 profit from this trade.
1603987847435.png

(ignore the loss arrow, that's a paper loss that means nothing as the profit is already locked in).

I need to deposit more money. The problem here is that I only have enough money to buy 10 contracts at a time (since they are all 90+ cents each). Once you have bought the contracts, you are back above $10 and can start over...but it takes way too long to buy 10 at a time. These markets are thick, so you could buy thousands of contracts without moving the price if you had that much on deposit.

This guy made $400k trading on PredictIT...
 
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otc

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#YOLO

I upped my deposit to $100 total and I've already made $27
1603989204874.png


Too bad they prohibit automated trading. Easy enough to scan for these opportunities and trade on them while they are above a certain profit %, but doing it by hand is slow. This one has enough payoff that it might be worth $50 or $100+/hr, but it is a pretty mind numbing hour of clicking "Buy".

That's probably part of why these opportunities exist though...if they allowed bots, the arbitrage would all be eaten up instantly.

edit: nevermind. you are limited to your max exposure of $850 in a single contract even though all contracts together cancel out.

So basically I made $48 but I can't buy any more. I'd have to find another opportunity.

If anyone else wants to make $48 with half an hour of work, just PM me and I'll explain how...meanwhile I will keep an eye out for other arbitrage opportunities.
 
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venividivicibj

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What are deposit/withdrawal fees?
 

otc

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What are deposit/withdrawal fees?
No deposit fees, 5% withdrawal fee (which only gets charged a single time, so you can amortize that fee over any number of bets depending on how long you stay in).

Only transaction fee is 10% of your profits when you close out a position....but that should already be factored in to determining whether a trade is profitable.

I found a second one that had an opportunity, but I was only able to trade a couple hundred contracts before it went back to even money.

This website calculates negative risk for you--but it only updates every 5 minutes. Technically anything >~1.11 should be profitable after fees, but the ones that are listed at 1.11 aren't worth your time because the returns are miniscule. Better to wait and hope the spread opens up.
 

Texasmade

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This is getting too complicated. What happened to the old way of investing where you just buy a strip club and launder money? That was so much easier and fun.

No deposit fees, 5% withdrawal fee (which only gets charged a single time, so you can amortize that fee over any number of bets depending on how long you stay in).

Only transaction fee is 10% of your profits when you close out a position....but that should already be factored in to determining whether a trade is profitable.

I found a second one that had an opportunity, but I was only able to trade a couple hundred contracts before it went back to even money.

This website calculates negative risk for you--but it only updates every 5 minutes. Technically anything >~1.11 should be profitable after fees, but the ones that are listed at 1.11 aren't worth your time because the returns are miniscule. Better to wait and hope the spread opens up.
 

Marc Voorhees

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I put a small traunch in the other day but just a taste. I'm talking about putting the nut back into play.
Nut deep is the way to be
 

venividivicibj

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cut employee benefits, keep dividend and CEO made $23m last year (you really gotta pay up for this kind of performance!)

 

Marc Voorhees

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cut employee benefits, keep dividend and CEO made $23m last year (you really gotta pay up for this kind of performance!)

Put this shit in the late stage capitalism thread. Absurd
 

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