- Aug 15, 2008
- Reaction score
IEM - Iowa Electronic Markets - The University of Iowa
There might actually be an arbitrage opportunity since PredictIt has a lower gap between the two. Not sure how it works out after fees though...and given the $500 max position on IEM, there's limited upside in total dollar terms evein if ROI is good.
Although IEM might let you offset positions. so if you are buying on one side and selling on the other, you might be able to establish a sizable arbitrage trade before you hit the $500 limit.
I'll have to think a little more. There have been papers written about arbitrage opportunities in these markets, but often the problem is that they are eaten away by profit fees (charged by PredictIt) or not worth it due to position size limits...but that is usually more about totals not adding up where you can eek out a few % return from mispricing within a single market.
Right now, there's more like a 15-20 point spread between the markets...and since Biden and Trump are really separate contracts, that's two convergence plays (and as I mentioned, you may be able to offset the positions since each convergence would go in the opposite direction)