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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Piobaire

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Do any of them match up to Waffle House?
 

Marc Voorhees

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venividivicibj

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stock market finally caught on there won’t be a stimulus?
 

jbarwick

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stock market finally caught on there won’t be a stimulus?
A lot of sad Christmas stories are coming. There was some sort of FinTwit type thing happening last year where people would go into a Walmart and pay off like $X on various lay-a-way accounts. Thinking of doing that this year. Also upped my giving to food banks. Historically I have not given much to charities but I just feel bad the older I get.
 

Piobaire

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Think of your e-bros with no jobs this Xmas. Me and OM could use some help.
 

gettoasty

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No stimulus was something the market already considered but not wholly factor in, bit of a wildcard. Same with contention for POTUS. So that is one factor not coming together favorably. We will see about the second in six days.
 

otc

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We will see about the second in six days.
The real money is already on big B:
1603918682103.png


edit: and before anyone says this was wrong last time...they never had Hillary that consistently high, and she was only at 58 the wednesday before the election.
Real money prediction markets are pretty good...especially when the margins are that high.
 

brokencycle

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Link me, bro. I'll throw my triple leveraged funds down right now.
 

otc

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There might actually be an arbitrage opportunity since PredictIt has a lower gap between the two. Not sure how it works out after fees though...and given the $500 max position on IEM, there's limited upside in total dollar terms evein if ROI is good.

Although IEM might let you offset positions. so if you are buying on one side and selling on the other, you might be able to establish a sizable arbitrage trade before you hit the $500 limit.

I'll have to think a little more. There have been papers written about arbitrage opportunities in these markets, but often the problem is that they are eaten away by profit fees (charged by PredictIt) or not worth it due to position size limits...but that is usually more about totals not adding up where you can eek out a few % return from mispricing within a single market.

Right now, there's more like a 15-20 point spread between the markets...and since Biden and Trump are really separate contracts, that's two convergence plays (and as I mentioned, you may be able to offset the positions since each convergence would go in the opposite direction)
 

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