Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[GreenFrog]



Complete luck in market timing. I started investing in stocks during the mini-crash of 2008. Anything i bought literally at least doubled. But as they say, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Turned a modest 5 figure sum as a college student into a nice 6 figure nest egg.

Damn how did you have a 5 figure savings in college?

 

[melwoesblvd]

MU, short or long before earnings after the close?

 

[idfnl]



MU, short or long before earnings after the close?

Thats a risk. I personally wouldnt play either side.

 

[idfnl]



I transferred 2000$ to my stock account a month ago and forgot about it.
What do you guys would advise? I know it's a small amount but you got to grind from scratch when you can!
I only have AAPL stocks (12, bought last june) for now :x

Consider a regional bank

 

[mikeman]



Glad to see you are still stacking Mike. I'm heavily invested in silver bullion as well. I like owning stocks too, but something about silver bullion. I can empty that monster box of Eagles on my bed, then dive into it and roll around in it like Scrooge McDuck.

Yeah, finally hit my little goal. Probably start to sock away some cash now, maybe wait for a pullback in the market.
There certainly is something reassuring about holding the physical over the paper. Although, the price needs to start moving north! The shorts just kill it every time it tries to make a upward move.

 

[idfnl]



.
A question that recently came up was "is buying and holding for long long term not a good idea?"
It was just mentioned that will all of the computer trading and economic worries, things just aren't as "stable" as they once were. That being said, if you do hold for long term (10+years), what kind of stocks do you choose?

I dont think it is.

I would buy and hold GLD long term and non cyclicals like Kraft, Kellogs etc. Bond funds also. Long term holds are dividend plays for me and a place to have some stability as the market wavers.

As of now, I keep about 1/3 of my portfolio in non cyclicals and vary it depending on market conditions.

Other stuff, ring that register when you have a good profit. I've actually held my buys less and less over the years. I have also learned to keep cash in the acct at all times. You know how many good day trades I have missed not having enough cash to make the trade?

My way of thinking of this question with non cyc stocks is how much do I really believe in this company? That generally lets me decide when I want to sell. ORCL is an example. I held it since '04 at $9 a share. They topped in the low 30's a while back and I decided to move on, kept only 10 shares just to say I wasnt stupid when I miss a move to 50. Otherwise, its reached its value potential and there are better stocks out there.

 

[idfnl]

**** guys, I think 'ol China is gonna slow us down a bit. I expect some slow days for a few weeks as this gets priced in. I did not like how the market reacted to China today as opposed to finding support in the jobs numbers.

 

[sns23]



Damn how did you have a 5 figure savings in college?

Started my own internet business freshman year

 

[chogall]

**** guys, I think 'ol China is gonna slow us down a bit. I expect some slow days for a few weeks as this gets priced in. I did not like how the market reacted to China today as opposed to finding support in the jobs numbers.

There will be no good news coming out of China until the transition is over.

In Q3, there will be no bad news coming out of China once the Xi takes over.

And in the mean time, China bear will be trumpeting a hard landing when in reality it is still well within government control.

 

[riverrun]

china "has it all under control"? how is that? there are two "possible" good outcomes in the medium term...a consumption boom the likes of which the world has never seen starts yesterday if not sooner (which is a bit of a challenge when you have eroded household wealth with a decade of interest rate repression) or a giant source of external demand appears and gives china a get out of jail free card on the whole rebalancing away from investment and exports thing. if you are betting on the former, consider whether it's as simple for nine guys in a room to compel one billion poor people to do something potentially not in their self interest (buy buy buy when they have no wealth or social safety net) as it is for them to compel a concentrated state-sponsored/owned corporate sector to do something very much in its own interest (invest in real assets in a negative real interest rate environment). if the latter, you should tell us what borrowing-beleaguered first world nation is about to grow its current account deficit by leaps and bounds, bc that would have some even more interesting investment implications of its own.

 

[idfnl]



this thread is such a train wreck. if you had to pick long term investments you'd take a big directional short on rates when we're at zero and be long monetary expansion when we're coming off of a few of the most expansionary years in history?? really? maybe bonds and gold will do as well for the next ten as the last ten, but if so those returns will be just luck and not impressive on risk adjusted basis. also you want high dividend yields? that's like giving away the biggest advantage of a long term horizon which is ability to get a compound return. hint: the right answer is to look for the equity of businesses with durable pricing power / ability to pass through inflation and lots of room to reinvest at high incremental roics.
and china "has it all under control"? how is that? there are two "possible" good outcomes in the medium term...a consumption boom the likes of which the world has never seen starts yesterday if not sooner (which is a bit of a challenge when you have eroded household wealth with a decade of interest rate repression) or a giant source of external demand appears and gives china a get out of jail free card on the whole rebalancing away from investment and exports thing. if the former, I suggest you consider whether it's as simple for nine guys in a room to compel one billion people to do something potentially not in their self interest (buy buy buy when they have no wealth or social safety net) as it is for them to compel a concentrated state-sponsored/owned corporate sector to do something very much in its own interest (invest in real assets in a negative real interest rate environment). if the latter, you should tell us what borrowing-beleaguered first world nation is about to grow its current account deficit by leaps and bounds, bc that would have some even more interesting investment implications of its own.

If you want anyone to pay attention to your comments then why start a post by calling the thread (and by proxy its posters) a train wreck? If you investing skills are as bad as your debating skills then I would suggest there the real train wreck lies.

We have a pretty friendly group of guys posting in this thread so please don't ******* up. There are enough assholes in Dumb Threads to last a lifetime, you can join them.

So I'll put your pompous debating skills aside and respond in part.

If anyone talks gold, its a hedge against printing money and bad government. The only luck we might get is politicians actually reduce deficits. Otherwise its a reasonable place to put part of a portfolio and to buy its dips. I agree and do feel gold wont grow the way it has in the last decade but personally I am not buying it for growth. Its a hedge against the false sense of growth fake wealth thru monetary expansion creates.

Regarding China, you have a lot of people with a lot of savings and a compulsion to catch up with the rest of the world. I dont think anyone really has to incentivize a chinese to spend, they are willing on their own. I think your 2nd out is possible should the US turn the corner. The demand engine will start up again and they'll land softly. Its an interesting drama, since its such a new dynamic to have a China this large changing the angles. Today was a fascinating example of this in play by looking at what stocks were up and down and where money was cycling in and out of.

 

[riverrun]

you're too fast, tried to delete the first part of my post. in retrospect, I wasn't looking for anyone to pay attention to my comments and was just in a bad mood and annoyed by the completely assbackwardness in this thread. I am happy to delete my entire post (prior one and this one) if you delete yours quoting it and you can get back to your more genial discussion of the merits of bonds in an inflationary environment and how to kill it day-trading biotech earnings.

 

[Slopho]

^ Is there a chance you could delete yourself from this entire thread? Is there no section of SF where people can just show up, leave their egos at the door and have a non "my internet dick is bigger than yours!!" conversation??

 

[idfnl]



you're too fast, tried to delete the first part of my post. in retrospect, I wasn't looking for anyone to pay attention to my comments and was just in a bad mood and annoyed by the completely assbackwardness in this thread. I am happy to delete my entire post (prior one and this one) if you delete yours quoting it and you can get back to your more genial discussion of the merits of bonds in an inflationary environment and how to kill it day-trading biotech earnings.

Nah. I'll leave it. I'll document how hustlers like you can throw a bunch of 10$ words around to try and sound so above us. And why you expected some hyper sophisticated discussion about investing in a clothing forum is beyond me. We're just a bunch of guys with regular jobs that like to trade some shares.

In the future why dont you be less of a Goldman Sachs employee and give us Muppets a hand.

 

[idfnl]



^ Is there a chance you could delete yourself from this entire thread? Is there no section of SF where people can just show up, leave their egos at the door and have a non "my internet dick is bigger than yours!!" conversation??

I've noticed that SF in general has become much more vicious in the last year. Its not strictly his fault as the water level on abuse has been raised across the board.