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SF Fantasy Baseball League 2009

Discussion in 'Entertainment, Culture, and Sports' started by aportnoy, May 17, 2006.

  1. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    Kinsler is THE best at his position and a 5-cat contributor. Millwood is solid, but definitely not worth the price. You're right that nobody on waivers is as good as millwood, but Kinsler demands more than a mediocre pitcher.

    Stewart is an afterthought at best; a player with one nice stretch.
     
  2. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    Wow. My team is awful.
     
  3. Brian278

    Brian278 Senior member

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    ^^^I like Utley better from here to the end of the season, even if Kinsler ends up with a higher overall season rank.
     
  4. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    ^^^I like Utley better from here to the end of the season, even if Kinsler ends up with a higher overall season rank.

    I can see where you're coming from. They're pretty damn close. I might take Utley too - that Phillies lineup is nasty.
     
  5. Brian278

    Brian278 Senior member

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    Wow. My team is awful.
    It's not as bad as you think. You know you can drop Rickie Weeks for some other roster help, right? He's not coming back for the rest of the season. Also, you can move other players on the DL that are coming back to your DL slot, and use other players in there place until they come back. You need SBs, badly, and there's always SBs to be had as free agents. You need more starting pitching for Ks and wins but 3 of the guys you've got are studs, and you've got two of the best closers and another part time closer with good ratios. There's at least one or two guys out there that would definitely help. You're going to have to read around a bit to figure out who, though. You're lineup features Bay, Texeira, Kinsler, and Dunn...you really shouldn't be this far behind. Soto is coming around. You definitely have something to work with, but you apparently just have no ability to adjust. With somebody with experience running it you'd have had a pretty good shot at the playoffs. You still might if you start paying attention.
     
  6. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    Kinsler is THE best at his position and a 5-cat contributor. Millwood is solid, but definitely not worth the price. You're right that nobody on waivers is as good as millwood, but Kinsler demands more than a mediocre pitcher. Stewart is an afterthought at best; a player with one nice stretch.
    Kinsler is not the consensus best 2b in the league. He has been statistically so far, but to dismiss Utley, Pedroia, and etc. would be a mistake. Kinsler may very well be the best 2B for the first three months of every year, But he is historically a 2nd half disappointment. Usually because of injury, but also because after the all-star break, he gets worn out. look at his career splits. April-June / July to October 51 HR / 19 HR 288 Hits / 201 hits 193 Runs / 122 runs 158 RBI / 77 RBI 49 SB / 27 SB Thats a pretty big average dropoff to swallow after the end of this month. Unless you already expect it to happen. Which I do. [​IMG]
     
  7. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    Drop Weeks, drop Gordon, put guillen on the DL. That gives you 3 spots to play with. Pick up Scott Rolen or Ian Stewart to replace Edwin Encarnacion.

    Take my trade. You know you want to [​IMG]
     
  8. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    Kinsler is not the consensus best 2b in the league. He has been statistically so far, but to dismiss Utley, Pedroia, and etc. would be a mistake. Kinsler may very well be the best 2B for the first three months of every year, But he is historically a 2nd half disappointment. Usually because of injury, but also because after the all-star break, he gets worn out.

    look at his career splits.

    April-June / July to October
    51 HR / 19 HR
    288 Hits / 201 hits
    193 Runs / 122 runs
    158 RBI / 77 RBI
    49 SB / 27 SB

    Thats a pretty big average dropoff to swallow after the end of this month. Unless you already expect it to happen. Which I do. [​IMG]


    That's pretty deceptive use of stats. He's played 285 games pre-break, and 157 games post-break. That's a gigantic number of missed at-bats. Also, his production went UP in 2007.

    Utley sure, but Pedroia? Little power and production, and has been disappointing on the basepaths this year. Utley and Kinsler are in a league of their own.
     
  9. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    No indication except he's 34 and has posted +5.00 ERAs that last two years, however much stock you put in that (and I put some stock in it). And a ridiculous home ERA that looks pretty unsustainable to me, a lowish BABIP and what I'm guessing, based on his WHIP, is a pretty good strand rate. And he's averaging way more pitches per start than he ever has before even as his K rate has come down. Other than that, nope, no indication at all.
    See Cliff Lee 2008. Maybe its steroids, but I've watched him pitch about six times this year, and he looks like this year's Cliff Lee(ish) player to me. (just as a reference, I'm not saying he's going to dominate everyone, but that he's pitching way above his head, and I think he can do it all year) Numbers without watching people play and making educated guesses based on their playing style, mechanics, and etc. are just numbers. You could spin the raw numbers and come up with the assertion that Ichiro is or is not the greatest baseball player of all time. Thats just kind of dumb and meaningless though. I think Millwood might be sustainable. At least, for "long enough". He's made the shift to "pitching" rather than "throwing" and while that means more pitches, that also means less overall wear and tear on his arm. So far its been working superbly. I guess we'll see. Oh, and by the way, I am currently leading you 5-4.
     
  10. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    That's pretty deceptive use of stats. He's played 285 games pre-break, and 157 games post-break. That's a gigantic number of missed at-bats. Also, his production went UP in 2007.
    Exactly my point. Note though, that that is not a pre- break/post break split. That is three months vs four months split for his career. He's missing time with injuries or wearing down after the first three months of the year on a consistent basis. That is the point. Those numbers are not deceptive in the slightest. :p
     
  11. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    Exactly my point. Note though, that that is not a pre- break/post break split. That is three months vs four months split for his career. He's missing time with injuries or wearing down after the first three months of the year on a consistent basis. That is the point. Those numbers are not deceptive in the slightest. :p

    You have 2 seasons where he missed time in the second half, and 1 season where he missed time in the first half...you can't possibly make a trend out of that.
     
  12. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    You have 2 seasons where he missed time in the second half, and 1 season where he missed time in the first half...you can't possibly make a trend out of that.
    Three total seasons with time spent on the DL, out of a total of three seasons? Two of which happened during the second half, and one of which was when? First three months? I don't remember. A 134 average point drop in his OPS post all-star break over the course of a three year sample size is about as much of a trend as you can get. EVERY YEAR, even the one year he was healthy for the second half, he has taken a statistical dive after the all-star break. EVERY YEAR. How many consecutive seasons in a row with disappointing second half numbers does it take to make a trend out of it? I say three is plenty.
     
  13. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    I'll still win the week.
    You still confident? You are losing at the moment. We both have two pitchers going tomorrow...
     
  14. Brian278

    Brian278 Senior member

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    You still confident? You are losing at the moment. We both have two pitchers going tomorrow...

    Not confident. Looking dicey but it could still very much go either way.
     
  15. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    Not confident. Looking dicey but it could still very much go either way.

    Kinda like T4's tuesday surprise? [​IMG]
     
  16. Steve B.

    Steve B. Senior member

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    N I dropped Aramis Ramirez because I thought he'd be out longer. I am so fucked.
     
  17. WhateverYouLike

    WhateverYouLike Senior member

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    Ill trade him back to you if you'd like. I already have david wright...don't really need aramis.
     
  18. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    Not confident. Looking dicey but it could still very much go either way.

    ...or neither way, as it turns out. [​IMG]

    I'm satisfied with a tie. You are a valiant competitor. I look forward to us meeting in the playoffs.
     
  19. Tokyo Slim

    Tokyo Slim Senior member

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    Man, this is a tough stretch. Playing the top team 2 weeks in a row.
     
  20. Brian278

    Brian278 Senior member

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    ...or neither way, as it turns out. [​IMG]

    I'm satisfied with a tie. You are a valiant competitor. I look forward to us meeting in the playoffs.


    Agreed. Epic battle. [​IMG]
     

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