Recession

[ghulkhan]

question for people: Has anyone ever accurately predicted a recession or a stock market crash in this country? I dont think so. But I am not too sure so correct me if I am wrong.


Also what about the effects of globilization on the USA economy. Isnt the economy less "isolated" than before. Is our economy not connected to other peoples more so. Who knows we might get low cost help options from other countries that might help us? I dont know how anything will play out but I think NNT is right when he predicts that the US economy is going to be much rosier than what people have in mind.

 

[Coho]

Originally Posted by ghulkhan

question for people: Has anyone ever accurately predicted a recession or a stock market crash in this country? I dont think so. But I am not too sure so correct me if I am wrong.


Ludwig Von Mises? or was it Richard Ricardo?

 

[ghulkhan]

^^ Ok but were their predictions based on any actual skill. Sure they might be famous but dont you think they just got lucky?

 

[Gus]

Around '99 I began to notice a large number of my co-workers showing up with brand new, expensive cars or talking about other major purchases. When asked how they pulled it off they replied, "By taking out a second on my home". I was amazed how popular this became, borrowing to buy depreciating assets and spending the equity in their home. The fact is that this kind of behavior has contributed to growth in our economy, an economy that relies heavily upon consumer spending.

Now, with housing prices in decline and with the brakes being put on further refinancing for many people, my concern is the effect this is having on our economy. I think that with this source of spending power gone, we can't simply replace it with a bump in employment or corporate profits as in some previous recessions. I'm not sure what it will take, and that concerns me.

 

[Piobaire]

Originally Posted by ghulkhan

question for people: Has anyone ever accurately predicted a recession or a stock market crash in this country? I dont think so. But I am not too sure so correct me if I am wrong.

I can't think of his name, but I think the guy that calls his system "CANSLIM" says he has predicted the last couple of big market corrections.

 

[eg1]

It's not the predicting a recession that is the trick (there will inevitably be one eventually) it's the timing -- and NOBODY gets that right consistently.

I should think your concerns will always be determined by your time horizon. If you are near retirement, capital preservation trumps all. If you are a long way off from it, keep buying, especially during the recessions/market retrenchment periods.

 

[Cantabrigian]

Originally Posted by ghulkhan

question for people: Has anyone ever accurately predicted a recession or a stock market crash in this country? I dont think so. But I am not too sure so correct me if I am wrong.

Paul Tudor Jones made a boatload in the 87 crash and has been the typical 'for instance' in these sorts of discussions.

I can think of an easy half dozen names that have made a killing in the current downturn. There are proably hundreds more as well.

 

[dkzzzz]

Originally Posted by ghulkhan

question for people: Has anyone ever accurately predicted a recession or a stock market crash in this country? I dont think so. But I am not too sure so correct me if I am wrong.

I did in this thread:

http://styleforum.net/showthread.php...ession+by+2008

Originally Posted by dkzzzz

I realized my gains because I am not sure Bush tax cut will be extended and I am pretty certain US will be in recession by the end of 2008.

No no futures for me.