OMG THE TECH BUBBLE SKY MAY BURST - a discussion

Discussion in 'Streetwear and Denim' started by Biggskip, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. Biggskip

    Biggskip Senior member

    Messages:
    4,267
    Likes Received:
    1,589
    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2008
    Location:
    Believeland
    

    We've had this conversation before. We're all aware of Fumma's thoughts on the vacuous app-driven culture, but we're a long way from Tech Bubble 2.0.

    Companies are much better capitalized than before and more importantly they have a much stronger management culture. Will Twitter ever live up to its expectations implied by its market cap, probably not, but I don't think it's going the way of Pets.com either.

    So while I can envision a scenario where the stock price of tech firms comes down and the resulting wealth effect creates a certain "recession" mindset in the region for a while, I don't see that setting off some sort of chain reaction where people are buying homes a block at a time or Senior Programming Leads using their underwater options as a replacement good for toilet paper.
     
  2. Mr. Moo

    Mr. Moo Boxercise Toughguy

    Messages:
    17,278
    Likes Received:
    11,046
    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Location:
    Bay Area, CA
    The tech industry is going absolutely nowhere. If anything is continuously growing. Trust me, as someone who has a pretty good view of what's happening at the center - no one is going anywhere.
     
  3. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

    Messages:
    12,120
    Likes Received:
    2,404
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Location:
    San Francisco
    



    @Both - I agree tech is growing and is funded much better than the bubble that burst in the late 90s. However, i am concerned about how well things are going. Eventually something is gotta give, i just hope it won't be as bad as the the late 90s or the 07/08 financial crisis.
     
  4. the shah

    the shah Persian Bro #2 and enabler-in-chief

    Messages:
    16,570
    Likes Received:
    10,784
    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Location:
    lying furtively

    some other views from the center of industries leading up to 1929 and 2006 :teach:

    "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
    - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

    "It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
    - Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors

    “I don't worry about new home sales,”
    - James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist

    "There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
    - Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co

    "We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.”
    - David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

    "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
    - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

    "There is no bubble to burst,"
    - Jim Folkman, VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico

    "... a serious depression seems improbable"
    - Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

    "There was never a "bubble", so there is nothing to "burst".
    - Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2016
  5. MickeyPunch

    MickeyPunch Senior member

    Messages:
    1,098
    Likes Received:
    569
    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2012
    As someone working in IT, I really hope I'm wrong but I definitely think we're in a bubble. And as Shah pointed out above, most people (including "experts" or even especially "experts") think there's no bubble until it bursts right in front of them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2016
  6. Biggskip

    Biggskip Senior member

    Messages:
    4,267
    Likes Received:
    1,589
    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2008
    Location:
    Believeland

    I never said the industry was immune from a downturn, I just think that a. it's not in a bubble state right now and b. when the downturn comes it won't be nearly as catastrophic.

    When receptionists at nail salons are sitting on the boards of four to five tech firms at once, then I'll be concerned.
     
  7. Find Finn

    Find Finn Senior member

    Messages:
    12,358
    Likes Received:
    3,484
    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2010
    


    It depends on how the downturn plays out and what starts it, if the China bubble blows up, it's going to get real ugly for everyone.
     
  8. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    33,861
    Likes Received:
    11,891
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    While I am not sure how big the bubble is, I am sure that there is one, and that we are in one now.

    Just looking at all of the tech fashion startups for men, and even accounting for the overall growth in menswear, I see a few issues:
    1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics".
    2) The pace at which there are new companies is outpacing the incremental increase in the demand for menswear
    3) With more and more companies competing in the same sector, the bets investors are making are increasingly long, so it will become increasingly difficult to win.

    As for "experts", I'm typically not that impressed, mostly because a lot of them don't take do enough groundwork, and/or rely on reports and standard metrics about a company rather than really understanding the meat. For example, imo, if you are not interested in clothing, you are much more likely to not see the glaring issues with a company that sells clothing.
     
  9. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    33,861
    Likes Received:
    11,891
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    This. This is the real danger.
     
  10. byAsum

    byAsum Member

    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    6
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2016
    "1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb" -- agreed
     
  11. basil rathbone

    basil rathbone Senior member

    Messages:
    637
    Likes Received:
    2,037
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2012
  12. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

    Messages:
    12,120
    Likes Received:
    2,404
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Location:
    San Francisco
    


    "1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics"." - this applies to many start ups outside of fashion as well. i have recruiters emailing me and some of the companies are wtf.
     
  13. sinnedk

    sinnedk Senior member

    Messages:
    12,120
    Likes Received:
    2,404
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Location:
    San Francisco
  14. larryr

    larryr Senior member

    Messages:
    818
    Likes Received:
    374
    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2006
    Location:
    NY, NY
    Not sure if there will be a large burst, but the evaluations of some companies are ridiculous, what will happen is they should get more realistic. Technology is wagging the dog, each new idea or feature is a life changer must have.
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2016
  15. LA Guy

    LA Guy Opposite Santa Staff Member Admin Moderator

    Messages:
    33,861
    Likes Received:
    11,891
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2002
    Location:
    Moscow, Idaho
    Quote:I think that stories like the Powa breakdown shows that people are simply not doing their due diligence in their eagerness to invest in a possible unicorn (http://www.businessinsider.com/powa...p-deloitte-as-administrators-2016-2?r=UK&IR=T) While that is an extreme case, there are many other, small startups that have been funded that should have raised immediate red flags. Psychologically, I think that no matter what the talking heads say, that we are in a bubble when a lot of people all have an idea that unlimited growth is possible.
     

Share This Page

Styleforum is proudly sponsored by