NYTimes article - Spring 2009 Shopping Slump

[holymadness]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/fa...12lost.html?hp

For Spring Clothes, a Lost Season? Bangles and handbags on slabs of marble and glass are going largely untouched, like artifacts in museums. [...] And why not? The spring collections are being sold at full price: $800 jeans, $1,500 blazers, $10,000 necklaces. If consumers learned anything during the Christmas shopping season, it was that if they sit on their wallets long enough, they could eventually snap up elite brands for fire-sale prices. The mistletoe and tinsel are long gone, but consumers have yet to break the habit. And in the retailing game of chicken, the odds are in their favor. February retail sales at Neiman Marcus, Saks and Nordstrom were some of the worst in the industry. Barneys New York, which does not publicly report monthly sales, is seriously ailing. Moreover, high-end stores order their spring merchandise months before the season arrives. So while they were able to cancel or return some orders as the economy plunged into recession last year, their inventory is not yet in line with weakened shopper demand. “What’s flowing into stores this spring and summer reflects expectations from nine months ago, which were not low enough,” said Ms. Widlitz, who works for Pali Research in New York. That means more discounts are on the way, though they will not be as stunning as those at Christmastime. “That’s not going to happen again in our lifetime,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group, a retailing consultancy. That is partly because luxury chains have managed to trim at least some of their inventory. It’s also because fashion companies were incensed during the holidays when their prestige labels were being sold at bargain-basement prices that competed with their own stores. Some designers said they are still smarting and deciding whether they will continue supplying certain chains.

What do you think, was FW08 a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for buyers, or will we see the likes of it again? Is it even over as we speak? For a recession that will ostensibly put luxury items beyond the grasp of many, there are a lot more people wearing Truzzi shirts and Incotex pants right now.

 

[robin]

S/S collections were bad this year, nothing good to buy.

 

[SirSuturesALot]

Originally Posted by holymadness

For a recession that will ostensibly put luxury items beyond the grasp of many, there are a lot more people wearing Truzzi shirts and Incotex pants right now.

I have little experience in such matters, but couldn't this conceivably be of some benefit to retailers in the long run? There are more potential customers who have tasted the Truzzi/Incotex/etc fruit thanks to steep discounts during the past season. As the economy recovers and retailers cut supply, perhaps these potential customers can be convinced to purchase at higher prices?

 

[porcelain monkey]

It seems to me that stores will have cut the quantity they buy for SS09 so as not to be caught with too much inventory. This should reduce the sheer amount of good deals once things go on sale. Even if the discounting is as deep as we saw in the fall and winter, there won't be as many good deals. I have no inside knowledge, it just seems to make sense.

 

[anon]

They've got shorts and flip flops out when it's in the 30s here. It's just too cold to consider buying warm-weather clothes yet here.

 

[southbound35]

Originally Posted by anon

They've got shorts and flip flops out when it's in the 30s here. It's just too cold to consider buying warm-weather clothes yet here.
I wonder if a few slow retail years might shift slightly the introduction of clothing lines to store floors. In Dallas, by the time it's cool enough to wear cashmere, it's already 50% off. It seems to me, at least in the south, retailers leave a lot of money on the table.

 

[anon]

Originally Posted by southbound35

I wonder if a few slow retail years might shift slightly the introduction of clothing lines to store floors. In Dallas, by the time it's cool enough to wear cashmere, it's already 50% off. It seems to me, at least in the south, retailers leave a lot of money on the table.
they definitely need to better coordinate their releases with the weather. it just hit cold/rainy season here, so I went looking for a coat... none to be had. plenty of linen pants if I want any, though.

 

[Nicola]

There was a news report a few days ago about Prato,Italy. Textile mills etc. Orders are off 50%. Companies are shutting. Worse workers are looking for new things to do. Even if things turn many of the people with skill will have moved on.

 

[polar-lemon]

They've definitely lowered their stock to account for the fewer people who are buying things at full price. We'll see what happens, but I doubt there will be ridiculous markdowns across the board on stuff you'd actually want to buy.

 

[JayJay]

Originally Posted by robin

S/S collections were bad this year, nothing good to buy.
What I've seen thus far doesn't excite me.

 

[FIHTies]

The weather is certainly playing a role in buying this Spring season and Retailers are buying more selectively for the Fall.

I do think that the Sales of last year were a unique opportunity and will not be repeated. Thats what happens with business cycles.

 

[mossrockss]

Originally Posted by SirSuturesALot

I have little experience in such matters, but couldn't this conceivably be of some benefit to retailers in the long run? There are more potential customers who have tasted the Truzzi/Incotex/etc fruit thanks to steep discounts during the past season. As the economy recovers and retailers cut supply, perhaps these potential customers can be convinced to purchase at higher prices?

A luxury, once experienced, becomes a necessity.

 

[anon]

Originally Posted by mossrockss

A luxury, once experienced, becomes a necessity.
true, and good insight, SirSutures.