NFL 2009 Discussion

[whacked]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

The problem is not your up front number, its the guarantee. Your "$25 mil most of it non-guaranteed" is quite likely less money than the 49er's offered him. You'd think that in line with the players above and below him in the draft, they offered him around 16-17 million guaranteed.

You can offer him the 40 million that he's asking for, but if 20-something of it isn't guaranteed, he's not going to sign it, cause it's not what he thinks he's worth. (even though he might be worthless)

On a related note, WR is right up there with RB as the most risky positions to spend a first-round pick on. 40% of the time, your "great receiver" will become a bust. A $20 million guaranteed bust.

Eugene Parker is the NFL's version of Scott Boras.

 

[montecristo#4]

Originally Posted by Slopho

So true. He's lenient with management and throws the book at players. What ever happen to the tapes of Rams' practices that New England shot??

They never existed. The whole story was a fabrication. Courtesy of the journalistic failure of theBoston Herald.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by whacked

On a related note, WR is right up there with RB as the most risky positions to spend a first-round pick on. 40% of the time, your "great receiver" will become a bust. A $20 million guaranteed bust.


Oh come on, you mean "can't-miss" prospects like Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, and David Terrell?

I think I read somewhere that since 2000, only something like 2 or 3 first round WR's have gotten new contracts with the teams who drafted them. Tells you something, doesn't it?

 

[emmanuel]

All of these WR draft stats are useless. They mean absolutely nothing...

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by emmanuel

All of these WR draft stats are useless. They mean absolutely nothing...

What do you mean? The fact that nearly none of the WR's drafted in the first round in the last decade have not lived up to the hype surrounding them at draft time - and it doesn't matter? Go ahead and overpay them anyways?

 

[Rambo]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

What do you mean? The fact that nearly none of the WR's drafted in the first round in the last decade have not lived up to the hype surrounding them at draft time - and it doesn't matter? Go ahead and overpay them anyways?
I can't think of anyone other than Andre Johnson who was a high first round pick. I still think if a team showed initiative and enough non-guaranteed money they could sign Crabtree. If they made the deal worth enough to him, I'm talking 50 mil after incentives, don't you think that would appeal to his overvalued self worth?

 

[emmanuel]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

only something like 2 or 3 first round WR's have gotten new contracts with the teams who drafted them.

Im saying the quoted stat means nothing at all when trying to figure how a newly drafted WR will perform.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by emmanuel

Im saying the quoted stat means nothing at all when trying to figure how a newly drafted WR will perform.
What that stat (if you can call it that) shows is this: Player evaluation at this level, with the information available, anticipating the transition from a college team to an NFL team and how a player will react, and the situation in which this player will be dropped - is wrong far more often than it is right. Why, you may ask? Because teams draft college WR's based on physical attributes. Speed, jumping ability, route running, etc. These attributes are largely meaningless. There is little to no effective difference between a guy who runs a 4.5 and a 4.35 forty yard dash. In the NFL, you are almost always competing against a guy who is just as fast as you, and who stuffs you at the line of scrimmage. You can't run around any corner in the NFL like you did in college. Route running crispness and ability is nice, but is it just repetition, or does the WR understand why he's running where he is? Can you get technique (not just speed or strength) separation from the DB? Does he know how to open up a zone, or is he just used to "being open"? When you draft a WR in the first round, most of the time - you are expecting them to come in and be an impact player right away. You are not expecting them to be a number 2 or 3 WR, you are not giving them time to learn what is essentially a completely different game than the one they played in college. To adjust to not being the fastest, or the tallest, or the guy with the best hands on the team. To make the most out of less opportunities to produce. To face people who will smash you in the face before you even get started running to see how well you recover. To be able to understand football. They don't test metrics for that. And just because a kid learns to do it successfully at the collegiate level, means absolutely nothing in the pros. QB, WR, , and to a slightly lesser extent MLB and C are the four positions where rookies get hung out to dry in the NFL. It takes someone really special to be able to come in and grasp the fundamentals, speed, and physicality of NFL football right off the bat. It doesn't happen often. Look at the marquee WR's in the NFL. The best receivers in the league, with very few exceptions, were not expected to be the number one starter when they were drafted. They were given a decent adjustment period and were basically brought along as they were ready.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by Rambo

I can't think of anyone other than Andre Johnson who was a high first round pick.
Larry Fitzgerald is the only other one that springs to mind. There might be a couple more. They are rare like white buffalo though.

I still think if a team showed initiative and enough non-guaranteed money they could sign Crabtree. If they made the deal worth enough to him, I'm talking 50 mil after incentives, don't you think that would appeal to his overvalued self worth?

Sure, if you gave him a 23 mil guarantee with 27 mil in incentives, he'd sign. The problem is, there are only two or three teams who might be that stupid. The Raiders, who already basically snubbed him, the Cowboys, and the Redskins. Everyone else already knows that Crabtree is trying to be the "new T.O." Except it's highly likely he won't be NEARLY as productive as T.O. Crabtree has all the other stuff down though, and that's what is going to keep him out of a LOT of locker rooms around the NFL. There is a reason that despite how productive and great "on the field" Terrell Owens is - that he can't seem to stick with a team. It's cause the guy is a cancer in the locker room, a selfish player, and doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut to the media. He is a spectacle. Thats about the last thing most GOOD teams want. Even if you are optimistic, you are, as a GM expecting 2nd WR production out of a guy for the first two years of a five year contract. And that's assuming he stays completely healthy. Is it worth 50 million dollars to potentially destroy your clubhouse by bringing in flamboyant primadonnas , and pay guaranteed money that will essentially cripple your team for years to come whether it pans out or not - to someone who cannot guarantee production? Come on. Crabtree's best offer is the 49er's offer. And everyone knows it but Crabtree and his agent.

 

[whacked]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

What do you mean? The fact that nearly none of the WR's drafted in the first round in the last decade have not lived up to the hype surrounding them at draft time - and it doesn't matter? Go ahead and overpay them anyways?

It's bad, but not THAT bad.

2009 (6)
Darius Heyward-Bey
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Percy Harvin
Hakeem Nicks
Kenny Brits
2008 (0)
!
2007 (6)
Player School Team Pick
Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech Lions 2
Ted Ginn Jr. Ohio State Dolphins 9
Dwayne Bowe LSU Chiefs 23
Robert Meachem Tennessee Saints 27
Craig Davis LSU Chargers 30
Anthony Gonzalez Ohio State Colts 32
2006 (1)
Santonio Holmes Ohio State Steelers 25
2005 (6)
Braylon Edwards Michigan Browns 3
Troy Williamson South Carolina Vikings 7
Mike Williams USC Lions 10
Matt Jones Arkansas Jaguars 21
Mark Clayton Oklahoma Ravens 22
Roddy White Ala.-Birm. Falcons 27
2004 (7)
Larry Fitzgerald Pitt Cardinals 3
Roy Williams Texas Lions 7
Reggie Williams Washington Jaguars 9
Lee Evans Wisconsin Bills 13
Michael Clayton LSU Bucs 15
Michael Jenkins Ohio State Falcons 29
Rashaun Woods Oklahoma State 49ers 31
2003 (3)
Charles Rogers Michigan State Lions 2
Andre Johnson Miami Texans 3
Bryant Johnson Penn State Cardinals 17
2002 (3)
Donte' Stallworth Tennessee Saints 13
Ashley Lelie Hawaii Broncos 19
Javon Walker Florida State Packers 20
2001 (6)
David Terrell Michigan Bears 8
Koren Robinson N.C. State Seahawks 9
Rod Gardner Clemson Redskins 15
Santana Moss Miami Jets 16
Freddie Mitchell UCLA Eagles 25
Reggie Wayne Miami Colts 30
2000 (5)
Peter Warrick Florida State Bengals 4
Plaxico Burress Michigan State Steelers 8
Travis Taylor Florida Ravens 10
Sylvester Morris Jackson State Chiefs 21
R. Jay Soward USC Jaguars 29

Of these (43 WRs drafted in 10 years), 3 are legit superstars (Wayne, Johnson, Fitz), a handful are Pro Bowl material (Plax, Roy Williams, White, Edwards, Holmes, the '07 class minus Ginn and Davis). Rest are enigmas / journeymen or outright busts.

Success rate, depending on how you define it, is a fair bit lower than 50%.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by whacked

Of these (43 WRs drafted in 10 years), 3 are legit superstars (Wayne, Johnson, Fitz),

Wayne was groomed behind Marvin Harrison, took three or so years to come on, and is NOW a legit superstar. Johnson and Fitz were hung out to dry, and they are the only two examples of a number one WR drafted in the first round who lived up to the expectations placed on them by the draft that I can think of.

a handful are Pro Bowl material (Plax, Roy Williams, White, Edwards, Holmes, the '07 class minus Ginn and Davis). Rest are enigmas / journeymen or outright busts.

How long was Plax a Steeler? How long was Roy Williams a Detroit Lion? Roddy White has had 2 good years (out of 4), and two very mediocre years where he was second or third on the depth chart. Braylon Edwards hasn't even had two good years, he had ONE. Again, Santonio Holmes is not a number one WR. Even if he lines up as one, Hines Ward is still the number one guy.

These are players that have been either traded from the teams that drafted them, because they were early "busts", didn't fit in, or had financially crippling contracts - or players that were babied along and not expected much out of until they learned how to play. That is my point. Why spend 50 million bucks on what is essentially two or three years of mediocre play, and the potential to be a possible pro-bowler near his contract years?

Success rate, depending on how you define it, is a fair bit lower than 50%.

I define it as Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

 

[dcg]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

I define it as Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

And Megatron. Still early but he's a beast. Lions finally got it right!

 

[BDC2823]

^ Finally someone said it. I kept reading every post about this WR business and thinking, "Um hello guys, Megatron".

White and Bowe look to have been pretty good picks as well.

 

[countdemoney]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

Wayne was groomed behind Marvin Harrison, took three or so years to come on, and is NOW a legit superstar. Johnson and Fitz were hung out to dry, and they are the only two examples of a number one WR drafted in the first round who lived up to the expectations placed on them by the draft that I can think of.

Starting with the 88 draft, I can only really think of Marvin, Randy Moss, Sterling Sharpe, Tim Brown, and Joey Galloway with Rison and Keyshawn being borderline as impact rookies at WR.

TO played behind Rice, Irvin didn't do much in Dallas his first year.

 

[dcg]

Originally Posted by countdemoney

Starting with the 88 draft, I can only really think of Marvin, Randy Moss, Sterling Sharpe, Tim Brown, and Joey Galloway with Rison and Keyshawn being borderline as impact rookies at WR. TO played behind Rice, Irvin didn't do much in Dallas his first year.
Michael Clayton had a nice rookie year down in Tampa; it's just forgotten because he hasn't done anything since. Edit - damn, just looked up his stats - 80 catches for almost 1200 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie in '04; since then he's never gotten to 40 catches, 500 yards, or more than 1 TD in a season