MLB 2009 Division Winners + Wild Cards

[edinatlanta]

L East

Tampa Bay
Boston - WC

AL Central

Any of them except The Royals and Tigers

AL West

Angels

NL East

Philly
Atlanta - WC (BTW: I hate the bravos)

NL Central

Chicago

NL West

Dodgers

 

[breakz]

L East: Boston (Yanks or Rays as WC, can't decide)
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels

NL East: Atlanta (Mets as WC)
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dbacks

I predicate my choices on pitching moreso than hitting. I'll even go as far as to say that Atlanta wins the NL based on their incredible rotation (Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, Hanson, Jurrjens) and solid bullpen.

 

[Baron]

L East: Yanks, Rays WC
AL Cent: Indians
AL West: A's

NL East: Mets, Phils WC
NL Cent: Reds
NL West: Dodgers

I like Atl's pitching too but they have a lot of holes in their lineup and the back end of that rotation is young and iffy. I see the A's winning the west in an upset due to all the injury problems in the Angel's rotation. The Reds are my real darkhorse - they have a deep and solid pitching staff and a lot of good young hitters. I also see the Royals being surprisingly competetive and in the mix into September. I hate the Yankees but that rotation is way too good to dismiss.

 

[cpmac7]

dont sleep on Florida this season.

 

[kwiteaboy]

Originally Posted by cpmac7

dont sleep on Florida this season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...veryone-thinks

 

[breakz]

Sorry, gotta jump all over this:

Originally Posted by kwiteaboy

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...veryone-thinks

There's no compelling argument in that article and no, "regression to the mean" doesn't count. PECOTA has the Marlins at one run below what they scored last year. How can that, plus an improvement to the starting rotation, account for a 14-win drop? I don't buy it.

Anyway, the arguments here might be as follows:
>Setup man and closer are injured to start the year
>Starting rotation can't stay healthy all season
>Some regression in run production

But these can't account for how Dave dismissed them without basis. What, John Baker's overwhelming BABIP over 700 ABs in triple-A aren't convincing? Uggla improving during age 26-28 is "overperforming?" Our rotation can't replace Scott Olson and his 200 IP of garbage equating to...0 WPA?

They'll finish 3rd or 4th, but as a function of their competitive division. Atlanta, NY, and Philly are among the best in the NL this year.

 

[kwiteaboy]

To be completely honest, a lot of how the projection systems work is over my head. BUT, when three distinct projection systems that are usually pretty prescient are all in agreement, I'm inclined to think there's something there.

 

[breakz]

First: I was wrong about PECOTA's projection, they have the Fish scoring some 40 fewer runs. They also have them giving up some 60 more runs.

There was consensus too last year, when PECOTA projected the Fish at 76-86. They rely on young talent a lot, and projection systems often underestimate young talent by discounting minor league performance. Thus, the projections are less accurate re: the Marlins.

 

[cpmac7]

is there some logic to their picks or what. I just saw this thing on espn where they had this machine predict the AL West and the Rangers came in last every time. I would bet a lot of money that the rangers will not come in last in that scrub division. My point is these predictions have no logic involved.

 

[edinatlanta]

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has had a lot of reports saying the hometown heroes' bullpen has been awful this year. And frankly, I would take their word as the truth here.

 

[MetroStyles]

All that matters is the NL East.

Mets will take it, Phils WC.

 

[TCN]

Tigers in the AL Central.

Please God, Tigers in the AL Central . . .

 

[ConcernedParent]

Originally Posted by Baron

I see the A's winning the west in an upset due to all the injury problems in the Angel's rotation.

Lackey and Santana have minor injuries and will be back in less than a month... Escobar is also coming back soon.

 

[Baron]

Originally Posted by ConcernedParent

Lackey and Santana have minor injuries and will be back in less than a month... Escobar is also coming back soon.

Dude, they're pitchers - there's always the danger of injury. They might all be fine, but all three having issues at once before the season starts is a little scary. Santana especially might need Tommy John according to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus. As of now it's not clear but a sore elbow ligament is a classic wear and tear issue and that thing could blow at any time. Plus, Kendrick is never healthy and most of their other prospects prospects (Wood, Adenhart, Mathis, Morales, Aybar) have fallen far short of expectations. And Weaver is turning into his big brother and Vlad looks like an 80 year old man.

 

[Steve B.]

Originally Posted by ConcernedParent

Lackey and Santana have minor injuries and will be back in less than a month... Escobar is also coming back soon.

Please God, not Lackey.

Saunders turned out pretty good last year. Except in leagues that scored K/9.