Mega Millions

[otc]

Originally Posted by MrG

My self restraint is fine, but my statistics are better. I played, just because the EV is more than the cost of a play. I bought some last week, and I bought some today. Prior to last week, I couldn't even guess when I'd last played the lottery.
Your statistics must not be that great since the expected value was actually a good deal less than 1. Once you factor in the fact that the lump sum payout is only 200 some million and that taxes are going to eat a lot of it...I'd put it closer to 60 cents (factoring in all of the payouts...like the $2 for matching the last ball). Of course as an occasional thing, it isn't hard to suggest that each ticket is worth 40 cents of enjoyment. The real key to maximizing your returns is to not pick the same numbers as anyone else. This means that the Lost numbers would be a terrible idea, as would any common sequences (1 2 3 4, common dates, etc). All numbers have an equal chance of winning...but what happens when you find out that 2000 people also used the lost numbers? EDIT: Actually It would really suck if 2000 people chose the same number...the payout would be less than if you you had picked only the first balls right and gotten the last one wrong

 

[Aaron01]

Originally Posted by Fraiche

It's always worth buying 1 ticket if its > $100 million.

Statistically your odds aren't much better by playing than they were had you not. Also, the more tickets you buy, the worse your odds become.

 

[thekunk07]

nevermind, winner around here was a part winner, 5 numbers

 

[Bhowie]

I bought $100 worth of the exact same numbers. I figured I should go for the gold and try to win $30 billion.

 

[whiteslashasian]

Originally Posted by Bhowie

I bought $100 worth of the exact same numbers. I figured I should go for the gold and try to win $30 billion.

It would suck to be the guy with the 101st winning ticket. Less than 1% of the jackpot...ouch.

 

[Warren G.]

Originally Posted by Nil

Got some gas today and noticed the amount so I bought a ticket. The few minutes of fantasizing about what I'd do with that amount of money was worth the dollar.

+1

 

[Fraiche]

Originally Posted by Aaron01

Statistically your odds aren't much better by playing than they were had you not.

False. 1/100,000,000 is still infinitely greater than 0.

Originally Posted by Aaron01

Also, the more tickets you buy, the worse your odds become.

Also false. Your odds don't improve significantly but it certainly doesn't worsen it, that is why I said 1 ticket.

 

[Aaron01]

Originally Posted by Fraiche

False. 1/100,000,000 is still infinitely greater than 0.
Sure, technically since you've entered you actually have a chance at winning, but the difference between 1/100m and 0/100m is marginal at best.

Also false. Your odds don't improve significantly but it certainly doesn't worsen it, that is why I said 1 ticket.

The more tickets there are, the worse your odds become. Buying 100 tickets won't increase your chances any and would likely decrease your odds. Even if you're buying multiple tickets with the same number, it's still just a waste of money.

 

[tj100]

Originally Posted by Aaron01

Buying 100 tickets won't increase your chances any and would likely decrease your odds. Even if you're buying multiple tickets with the same number, it's still just a waste of money.

You'll have to explain to me how buying more tickets would decrease your odds. It's a pick-six game, so your odds of winning if you buy 1 ticket are 1 in 175 million. Your odds of winning if you buy two tickets are 2 in 175 million (you just DOUBLED the chance that you'll win!!!!). Your odds of winning if you buy 175 million tickets (with different numbers) are 100%. It's only the pari-mutuel nature of the jackpot that makes this strategy (buying every number) unworkable.

I would argue that as you buy more tickets, your odds get very marginally better (assuming you don't buy multiple tickets with the same number), because each incremental ticket reduces the total pool. On your first ticket, the odds are 1 in 175,000,000; on the second ticket, they're (the odds of you winning, not the odds of the actual ticket) actually 1 in 174,999,999.

If you're buying multiple tickets with the same number, you're not doing yourself any favors, because you're merely increasing your share of the potential jackpot in the case where there are several winners - and there are very rarely more than two winners.

 

[Fraiche]

Originally Posted by Aaron01

Sure, technically since you've entered you actually have a chance at winning, but the difference between 1/100m and 0/100m is marginal at best.



The more tickets there are, the worse your odds become. Buying 100 tickets won't increase your chances any and would likely decrease your odds. Even if you're buying multiple tickets with the same number, it's still just a waste of money.

Dude...please take some math classes...

 

[whiteslashasian]

Originally Posted by Fraiche

Dude...please take some math classes...

lol +1

I saw that post and just

'd

 

[facebookdigg123]

Originally Posted by Fraiche

Dude...please take some math classes...

 

[otc]

Originally Posted by whiteslashasian

lol +1

I saw that post and just

'd

Although the first part is correct...the chances of winning with or without entering are both essentially the same number with a rounding error many digits out.

If you have to drive your car a mile to the gas station to buy a ticket, it is 6 or 7 times more likely you will die in a car crash than win with the ticket (although wouldn't it be just your luck to die on the way home with the ticket that ends up winning

)

 

[whiteslashasian]

Originally Posted by otc

Although the first part is correct...the chances of winning with or without entering are both essentially the same number with a rounding error many digits out.

If you have to drive your car a mile to the gas station to buy a ticket, it is 6 or 7 times more likely you will die in a car crash than win with the ticket (although wouldn't it be just your luck to die on the way home with the ticket that ends up winning

)

The first part is correct if you don't care too much about numbers. For some people the difference between the two could mean a lot.

I wonder what the odds of me being hit crossing the street to get to the bodega would be...

 

[Fraiche]

Originally Posted by otc

Although the first part is correct...the chances of winning with or without entering are both essentially the same number with a rounding error many digits out.

Did you and Aaron take math courses sponsered by Arthur Anderson?