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j023

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guys, what sounds worse:


sheltering in place for a while longer so that we can further contain the virus and slow its spread

OR

opening up too soon and allowing the virus to spread quickly again, which in turn would bring about yet another need for an even longer shelter order (oh, and more people would die)


the economy is ruined regardless, except in the latter scenario, where it gets ruined even further because we have to shelter again (due to how stupidly impatient and selfish people are)

wrong.
 

Timbaland

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guys, what sounds worse:


sheltering in place for a while longer so that we can further contain the virus and slow its spread

OR

opening up too soon and allowing the virus to spread quickly again, which in turn would bring about yet another need for an even longer shelter order (oh, and more people would die)


the economy is ruined regardless, except in the latter scenario, where it gets ruined even further because we have to shelter again (due to how stupidly impatient and selfish people are)

The thing is no one knows what is the right or wrong approach until this whole thing is over. Those who are implementing shelter in place orders are saying that their way is the best. If you've ever worked in marketing you will know that people use select data to skew things to make it seem like what they are doing is right.

An example is looking at what is happening with Sweden. They took the herd immunity approach and places that took shelter in place are using it as an example that it was the incorrect approach. Sweden argued the area under the curve is the total number of deaths and it will be the same as SIP except it will happen over a shorter period of time and their economy wouldn't be wrecked like the US is.

If you look at the stats though Sweden's death percentage is in line with the average and they're not the worse in Europe as proponents of SIP would want you to believe. Of course if a vaccine came out tomorrow that would change things in favor of SIP but who knows when/if that will happen.

Honestly no one will know which approach is best until everything is over.
 
Last edited:

bbconair

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i wouldn't use sweden as an example. they messed up - not only did they not get herd immunity, their economy also is not doing well, at all; a quick search on their economy would show that they're not benefiting (depending if you view FT, WSJ, as less partial or impartial news). sweden is not a good example because they made a decision without knowing enough about covid. they made a gamble, and although their death rate may or may not be inline with other EU (i have not checked), they have more deaths than their nordic peers and their economy is also struggling / not benefiting as they would have expected it to. their goal was to get herd immunity. they barely have 7%. sweden is an example of what not to do, regardless if you believe in open or shelter since they didn't achieve saving their economy or getting to herd immunity.



and saying we won't know anything until it is over is a ridiculous comment. many asian countries have significant experience and have reduced infection rates. whether or not those methods would work in the USA is a different matter, but i think we know plenty (masks, contact tracing, etc.). look at japan - they also did not do massive sheltering, but they have a very cohesive population that generally acts as one.
 

cjaz

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You got a really good one. Wish these were more consistent

The marble effect masks the inconsistencies very well. Gut feeling is the Shasta has more attention to dye pattern consistency. Colors pop more than carnival tan uni. This one is subdued in comparison to the Shasta. Shasta feels like it could be the same contrast / brightness level as the carnival tan hoodie though.
 

cjaz

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I got the waterproof sochie pants and this coat
https://www.rei.com/product/126595/arcteryx-sawyer-coat-mens
anyone have recommendations for nice easy to put on waterproof boots?

Sounds like you’re doing some wilderness ish. Can’t imagine just rolling up to nature w my waterproof sweats like no big deal. I’d use those waterproof sweats like I do my himalayan pants...for SoCal drizzle / marine layer. Love that someone is really testing this tech. Keep us posted.
 

thuper_therious

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Sounds like you’re doing some wilderness ish. Can’t imagine just rolling up to nature w my waterproof sweats like no big deal. I’d use those waterproof sweats like I do my himalayan pants...for SoCal drizzle / marine layer. Love that someone is really testing this tech. Keep us posted.
December to like May is just wet, cold and muddy here in TN. I’m trying to get a functional fit because I’m outside with my dogs a lot Everyday all year.
 

Timbaland

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I don't know where you're getting your data from but Sweden's herd immunity is not barely 7%. In an NPR article it says Sweden's chief epidemiologist said the herd immunity was 20% in late April.


I wouldn't be surprised if a publication is using incorrect numbers to show that herd immunity is not working.

And the thing is no one knew about the seriousness of COVID because China lied and wouldn't let other people in to investigate. The WHO took them at their word.

And if we don't look at everything when it is over how will you tell what method worked the best? I'm not just talking about overall death rate, I'm also talking about the performance of the economy, etc.

If you look at death rate per 100k residents Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, and France all have higher death rates and I believe they have all enacted SIP.

Using Japan as an example as not using SIP doesn't help your argument as their rate is low. You can make an argument that other countries citizens are more likely to follow guidelines and Americans need SIP because a lot of Americans are entitled, selfish jerks who don't follow rules.
 

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