I think I hate San Francisco.

[mhip]

Tammany Hall 2024

 

[sugarbutch]

Commercial real estate apocalypse

 

[Omega Male]

The comments really embody the lived experience of SF public policy debates. And not just because they go on for ever and never reach any sensible conclusion.

Nearly 12 Million Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F.

In addition to 5.6 million square feet of directly vacant, un-leased office space spread across the city, which is up from around 3.7 million square feet of un-leased space at the same time last year, there is now 6.2 million square feet of office space in San Francisco which has been leased but...

socketsite.com

 

[sugarbutch]

It seems to me that the people who took the risk on building office buildings will be the ones who feel the pain for the downturn. This is how it's supposed to work, no?

 

[Mr. Six]

Mostly yes. But the commercial real estate market has been securitized similar to the mortgage backed securities fiasco. Luckily, it's only about a tenth the size. But it's collapse will probably have some negative macroeconomic consequences. And if those properties get their values written down, their property taxes will be reduced, which will reduce revenues to the state, cities, and schools, which will make it even more likely that they layoff more employees and reduce economic activity.

 

[sugarbutch]

Mostly yes. But the commercial real estate market has been securitized similar to the mortgage backed securities fiasco. Luckily, it's only about a tenth the size. But it's collapse will probably have some negative macroeconomic consequences. And if those properties get their values written down, their property taxes will be reduced, which will reduce revenues to the state, cities, and schools, which will make it even more likely that they layoff more employees and reduce economic activity.

If California voters approve the exemption of corporate real estate from Prop 13, I think we'll be okay.

San Francisco could have gotten a lot of housing out of this most recent boom, but they kept fucking around and delaying/rejecting code-compliant projects.

 

[UnFacconable]

One way or another, it looks like we managed to create more affordable housing / addressed the housing shortage unintentionally. Landlords are taking it on the chin right now. I know a handful of small time landlords who more or less break even on their SF rentals (people who purchased in the last decade or so). They are deeply underwater now and don't expect things to get better for years.

 

[sugarbutch]

My neighbor of 13 years has decided to leave the city. The people who own her house have had it for ages, put no money into it, and have steadily raised her rent. She was up to $3500/month. They offered to rent it to her remaining roommate at $2800, but she couldn't find a new roommate. Apparently they have already found someone to take it, though, at $3000.

I don't feel bad for them at all.

 

[Omega Male]

Looks like we will be sitting in the dark again tonight. We are right on the edge of the outage area, so it’s extra annoying to look out and see lights twinkling less than half a mile away, but still better than going up in smoke.

 

[imatlas]

Given that SF is not an island (despite what we might think and our elected reps assume), my fear is that reopening is the quickest way to get back into the red.

The low infection rate has held steady for several weeks now, I’m pleasantly surprised to say.

 

[sugarbutch]

The low infection rate has held steady for several weeks now, I’m pleasantly surprised to say.

I hope it holds

 

[imatlas]

Yup, I'm nervous about bars, restaurants and gyms reopening. Hard to believe we'll continue to have these low levels when people start hanging out together indoors.

I'm still planning to teach skiing this year but I'm going to schedule my days for later in the season so we'll have some time to see how things are going.

 

[gettoasty]

I don't know if this is recent but yeah, I recalled CA was yellow a week ago or so..

 

[sugarbutch]

I don't know if this is recent but yeah, I recalled CA was yellow a week ago or so..

View attachment 1484932

It would be interesting to see this heat map by county

 

[imatlas]

Blueprint for a Safer Economy

California has a blueprint for reducing COVID-19 in the state with revised criteria for loosening and tightening restrictions on activities. Understand your county’s status Every county in California is assigned to a tier based on its test positivity and adjusted case rate. At a minimum...

covid19.ca.gov