How will Daisuke Matsuzaka impact The Red Sox and Baseball?

[JBZ]

You guys realize the 51.1 million bid is a refundable posting fee? The Red Sox didn't spend that money just to talk to the guy. They are paying for exclusive rights to negotiate with him. If they cannot negotiate a deal, the Sox get all their money back. If they can negotiate a deal, then the Lions receive their posting fee.

Yes, I do realize this. However, if they do end up signing him, the $51.1 million is gone, and they have to pay his contract on top of this.

Did you read the outcome of the World Baseball Classic? The Japanese team won. Matsuzaka was the MVP.

Yes, this is true, and it certainly bodes well for Matsuzaka. However, he was in a situation where he was most likely ultra-hyped for every start (national pride), which may have given him a bit extra. This is not the same as facing major league quality hitters day in and day out. Bottomline is that I believe Matsuzaka is a real talent and will do well in MLB, I just don't know if he'll be an ace along the lines of a Pedro Martinez or Roger Clemens or Curt Schilling.

Picking up Byung Hyun Kim was one of the worst moves the Sox have made in recent years. I remember cringing when I read about that. He was _never_ a good pitcher for any team. He had his moments with the Diamondbacks, but he blew a lot of save opportunities, including two very important World Series games..

Picking him up wasn't the bad move. He actually provided a lot of stability in the bullpen in '03, but fell apart at the end of the year. Until picking him up, the Sox's closer situation was horrid that year. Signing him to the $10 million deal after this was the bad move. He wasn't well equipped to deal with the Boston fan base and media, and the attempt to convert him to a starter was a disaster.

What do the Red Sox have to lose? There are other pitchers on the market and Papelbon will be a starter next year.

There is a good argument here, but it assumes that Papelbon's conversion to a starter will go well (unclear, especially given his injury at the end of the year). Also, the pitchers on the free agent market are not that great (and, given the status of the free agent market this year, will be overpaid). The front liners are Barry Zito (pitches deep into games, but no longer of the Cy Young caliber - also has trouble against the Yankees, historically) and Jason Schmidt (talented, but injury prone). After that, the drop-off is precipitous.

Finally, my undrestanding is that the Sox look at Matsuzaka as a way to tap into the Japanese market, which they would dearly like.

The same brass that made the horribly unpopular, yet incredibly smart decision of trading Nomar in the middle of a season. The decision eventually won them their first World Series in 86 years.

By picking up J.D. Drew, the Sox can unload Manny, who will be a free agent at the end of 07. The Sox want to get something for him while they still can. This is a smart move.

I actually didn't criticize the Nomar move when it happened (although I was sad to see him go from a sentimental perspective). It was the right thing to do given the situation the team was in at the time. My concern with Drew is that he is historically injury prone and has a reputation of not caring. This won't go over well in Boston, particularly if they give him a contract of $14 million or $15 million a year (and particularly since they refused to give similar money to Johnny Damon a year ago). Unloading Manny might be the right thing to do at this point, given his apparent disatisfaction with Boston, but JD Drew is no Manny. Expect David Ortiz's walk totals to sky rocket next year.

 

[Stu]

Originally Posted by JBZ

My concern with Drew is that he is historically injury prone and has a reputation of not caring. This won't go over well in Boston ...

Ha, understatement of the year. I think Drew in Boston is going to be a 3-ring circus. I hope for his sake he has a strong start and plays 150 games, but if he doesn't, things could get ugly.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

For those of you who haven't seen him pitch yet: Pay special attention to the two breaking balls (curves I think) he throws around the 50 second mark.... The definition of SICK. Oh, and if any of you are concerned with the fact that a lot of his "strikes" are high of what would be the zone in MLB, remember that very few MLB batters are under 5'9".

 

[Hawkeye]

I think the $51M is more of an investment by John Henry to market the Sox more in Japan and to pick up more players from that neck of the woods(in serious talks with Hideki Okajima right now). I don't think he's really going to be worying about the $, Boston Magazine has him on the welthiest list at $840M. His last huge bid was for the Sox themselves, $700M was double the second highest bid.

I think people(yankees fans) are complaining that Lucchino is trying to lowball Matsuzaka to get the Lions to chip in some of that money to get the deal done(the Lions are apparently strapped for cash and really want this deal to go through) So does Matsuzaka who does not want to return becuse it would be an embarassment.

Manny possibly going to San Diego for Jake Peavy would present a pretty intimidating line-up:

Schilling
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Peavy
Papelbon
(with Lester waiting to hop in when Schill retires after this season)

I think Matsuzaka is going to pitch pretty well this season, but most likely will get better in the next two to three seasons. Slim is right, his pitches are sick and I think someone using that many pitches will do fine. Look at Beckett, he gets strikeouts when he throws a curve or two, but he relies on that fastball and it gets him in wayyy to much trouble in the AL. If Schilling is healthy, Beckett stops being such a hothead, Matsuzaka translates to MLB and Papelbon is anywhere near what he was last season, Sox fans are in for a good year!

 

[kwiteaboy]

Where'd you get the info on Manny for Peavy? I hadn't heard that one.

Matsuzaka is going to be pretty good, I think, but you can't really base that on his performance in the WBC. Furthermore, pretty much all reliable metrics for conversion of performance from the NPBL to MLB (granted, I think there are two) equate NPBL to about AAA-level competition in this country. He's not going to be nearly as good here as he was in Japan, but he'll still be good.

Kei Igawa is who I'm interested in, because as far as I can tell, he's going to be a pretty terrible pitcher for a lot of money.

I don't like this "raiding" of the NPBL to fill MLB rosters. It feels..dirty to me, I guess. There's a lot of history in Japanese baseball, and to turn the league into basically a minor league for MLB is wrong, IMO. Still, I love Matsuzaka's breaking pitches, so I'm not gonna complain.

 

[JBZ]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

For those of you who haven't seen him pitch yet:


Pay special attention to the two breaking balls (curves I think) he throws around the 50 second mark....

The definition of SICK.

Oh, and if any of you are concerned with the fact that a lot of his "strikes" are high of what would be the zone in MLB, remember that very few MLB batters are under 5'9".

Nifty stuff, Slim. Thanks. Those curves are something else.

 

[Hawkeye]

Originally Posted by kwiteaboy

Where'd you get the info on Manny for Peavy? I hadn't heard that one.

This is from Boston.com The Buzz
"On Tuesday, Edes reported the Padres have sweetened their offer for Ramirez, a source with direct knowledge of the talks told Edes. San Diego is apparently offering a package of Major League players for Ramirez, and that package would likely include starting pitcher Jake Peavy or reliever Scott Linebrink. The Sox reportedly are also interested in left-handed hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, according to Edes. There could, however, be potential problems with dealing with the Padres: "Sandy Alderson is not going to spend $20 million a year on Manny RamÃrez," one National League executive told Edes, referring to the Padres' CEO who built a tight-fisted reputation when he was building champions in Oakland. "That goes against everything he preaches." Ramirez may be unwilling to move over to the National League, and spacious Petco Park in particular."

I guess it looks like the Dodgers are feeling the need for another ex-Boston player since Billy Mueller retired, and are interested in Manny.

Another Japanese pitcher comes to MLB:

Sox ink Okajima
By Eric Wilbur, Boston.com Staff
The Red Sox made a move to bolster their bullpen today by signing free-agent lefthanded pitcher Hideki Okajima to a two-year deal.

The 30-year-old Okajima had been one of the better setup men in Japan, and his presence could provide an easier transition for Daisuke Matsuzaka into the American culture next season. Okajima spent 11 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants before being traded to the Nippon Ham Fighters prior to last season. He was 2-2 with a 2.14 ERA with four saves for the Fighters.

For his career, the lefty is 34-32, with a 3.36 ERA and 41 saves over 439 games. He will turn 31 on Christmas Day.

An official announcement will take place at Fenway Park later this afternoon.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Double post

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Looks like the ink has dried...

Daisuke Matsuzaka is officially now the 103.11 million dollar man. He just signed for 52 million...

...Not including his personal masseuse, translator, 90 round trip plane tickets to Japan (one can only assume that they will be first class), and all the escalator clauses in the contract.

 

[JBZ]

I think the Sox got a good deal here, given that Boras was originally looking for something much higher. I think Matsuzaka must have told him to make the deal.

The Sox look pretty strong for next year, although they still need a closer.

 

[lawyerdad]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

For those of you who haven't seen him pitch yet:


Pay special attention to the two breaking balls (curves I think) he throws around the 50 second mark....

The definition of SICK.

Oh, and if any of you are concerned with the fact that a lot of his "strikes" are high of what would be the zone in MLB, remember that very few MLB batters are under 5'9".

wicked

 

[Hawkeye]

So happy right now!

 

[Bradford]

Originally Posted by briancl

Picking up Byung Hyun Kim was one of the worst moves the Sox have made in recent years. I remember cringing when I read about that. He was _never_ a good pitcher for any team. He had his moments with the Diamondbacks, but he blew a lot of save opportunities, including two very important World Series games..

The two blown saves by BK were disappointing... but he was forgiven when we won Game 7!

And without Kim in the regular season, we would never have made it to the Series in the first place. He closed out some important games for us that year. Schilling and Johnson could only throw so many complete games