How will Daisuke Matsuzaka impact The Red Sox and Baseball?

[Tokyo Slim]

He throws a Great 90-97 MPH 4 seam & 2 seam fastball with movement, either a Splitter or "Shuto" (accounts vary, possibly both), a slider, a changeup, a curve, and a forkball. (thats right, at least seven pitches, all above average)

He has excellent command of all his pitches, and can throw from varying arm angles with success. He can use almost any pitch as an "out". He has been the most dominant pitcher in Japan since High School. He struck Ichiro out three times in a game the only time he faced him in Japanese competition. In 8 years of "pro" baseball he has 1,355 strikeouts to 502 walks (and he was injured for most of 02) with a lifetime ERA of 2.95.

The major problem is his workload. He has pitched so much, so often that some scouts are worried that his arm might fall off.

From ESPN:

...A 17-year-old Matsuzaka capped off an undefeated, 208-strikeout season for Yokohama High School with a performance at the Koshien (Annual Japanese HS baseball championship) that was as brutal as it was brilliant. In a complete-game victory over powerhouse PL Gakuen, he threw 250 pitches over 17 innings in withering heat. The following day, in a semifinal against Meitoku Gijuku, he played eight innings in the outfield before throwing a 15-pitch ninth to get a win. And the next day, in the final, he pitched a title-clinching, 11-strikeout no-hitter vs. Kyoto Seisho.

He hasn't slowed down much since then, pitching on average 175.27 innings per season for the past 8 years, twice going more than 200 innings. And in Japan, the season is only 135 games long, not 162 games like in the US.
For example, Curt Schilling during the same time period has pitched an average of 173.9 innings per year, but over a longer season and undoubtedly on more rest.

SO, the question is this, what will Matsuzaka's impact be? Will he go through a fantastic rookie season, only to slump when MLB hitters "figure him out"? Will he be dominant for 5 years and then wear himself out? Will he be embarrased by the differences in the American vs. Japanese game?

Will he be worth the money that the Sox are shelling out for him, and should they have done it?

You tell me...

 

[GQgeek]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

He throws a Great 90-97 MPH 4 seam & 2 seam fastball with movement, either a Splitter or "Shuto" (accounts vary, possibly both), a slider, a changeup, a curve, and a forkball. (thats right, at least seven pitches, all above average)

He has excellent command of all his pitches, and can throw from varying arm angles with success. He can use almost any pitch as an "out". He has been the most dominant pitcher in Japan since High School. He struck Ichiro out three times in a game the only time he faced him in Japanese competition. In 8 years of "pro" baseball he has 1,355 strikeouts to 502 walks (and he was injured for most of 02) with a lifetime ERA of 2.95.

The major problem is his workload. He has pitched so much, so often that some scouts are worried that his arm might fall off.

From ESPN:

He hasn't slowed down much since then, pitching on average 175.27 innings per season for the past 8 years, twice going more than 200 innings. And in Japan, the season is only 135 games long, not 162 games like in the US.
For example, Curt Schilling during the same time period has pitched an average of 173.9 innings per year, but over a longer season and undoubtedly on more rest.

SO, the question is this, what will Matsuzaka's impact be? Will he go through a fantastic rookie season, only to slump when MLB hitters "figure him out"? Will he be dominant for 5 years and then wear himself out? Will he be embarrased by the differences in the American vs. Japanese game?

You tell me...

Maybe he'll render baseball watchable by attracting hot japanese girls to come cheer for him wearing tiny little outfits.

 

[Nantucket Red]

Originally Posted by GQgeek

Maybe he'll render baseball watchable by attracting hot japanese girls to come cheer for him wearing tiny little outfits.

That would be the most exciting development in baseball since the beer girls at Tokyo Dome!

 

[Matt]

they banned beer wenches in Australia. Too many dudes caught on to the idea and were stopping in at the whorehouse to pick up hookers to bring them beer all day.

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by Nantucket Red

That would be the most exciting development in baseball since the beer girls at Tokyo Dome!

Next time I'm over, we need to go to a Giants game.

 

[Nantucket Red]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

Next time I'm over, we need to go to a Giants game.

Deal!

 

[briancl]

Originally Posted by Tokyo Slim

He throws a Great 90-97 MPH 4 seam & 2 seam fastball with movement, either a Splitter or "Shuto" (accounts vary, possibly both), a slider, a changeup, a curve, and a forkball. (thats right, at least seven pitches, all above average)

He has excellent command of all his pitches, and can throw from varying arm angles with success. He can use almost any pitch as an "out". He has been the most dominant pitcher in Japan since High School. He struck Ichiro out three times in a game the only time he faced him in Japanese competition. In 8 years of "pro" baseball he has 1,355 strikeouts to 502 walks (and he was injured for most of 02) with a lifetime ERA of 2.95.

The major problem is his workload. He has pitched so much, so often that some scouts are worried that his arm might fall off.

From ESPN:

He hasn't slowed down much since then, pitching on average 175.27 innings per season for the past 8 years, twice going more than 200 innings. And in Japan, the season is only 135 games long, not 162 games like in the US.
For example, Curt Schilling during the same time period has pitched an average of 173.9 innings per year, but over a longer season and undoubtedly on more rest.

SO, the question is this, what will Matsuzaka's impact be? Will he go through a fantastic rookie season, only to slump when MLB hitters "figure him out"? Will he be dominant for 5 years and then wear himself out? Will he be embarrased by the differences in the American vs. Japanese game?

Will he be worth the money that the Sox are shelling out for him, and should they have done it?

You tell me...

I think the Sox need a young, dependable pitcher in their rotation to be effective again. Since 04, they haven't had a 1-2 punch like Pedro and Schilling, so they haven't been able to dominate teams and win/sweep series. This Matsuzaka will be a good pitcher in the MLB, no doubt, but I am not expecting him to be the next Clemens or Pedro. To be honest, if we can't negotiate a deal with him (Lucciano said the offer was fair, so if he turns it down, I don't think there is much else the Sox will do for him), maybe they will pick up Clemens...... maybe. Probably not, but maybe.

They are also looking to pick up another Japanese pitcher. This time a reliever named Okajima. I think these moves are done entirely to increase their Japanese fan base. It's a business and marketing decision as well as a move to improve the quality of the team.

I know someone in Japan who teaches English to young children. She grew up a Red Sox fan here in the states, and as an excercise, she asked the children which team they preferred, Red Sox or Yankees. The entire classroom full of students had no idea who the Red Sox were, but they all knew and loved the Yankees. After she explained the Matsuzuka deal to them, they all suddenly were interested, and some of them even said they liked the Red Sox now.

 

[Stu]

Color me skeptical. Show me one Japanese pitcher who has come to the states and had sustained success at the same high level he had in Japan. Nomo was a decent back end of the rotation starter for a while, but despite his no-hitter, was never a stud No. 1.

A few relievers have had spots of success.

That being said, I am rooting for him and hope he is nasty in MLB. It would be great to get some stud Asian stars. Much as the growth of stud Latin stars has changed the game for the good.

 

[ratboycom]

Originally Posted by Nantucket Red

That would be the most exciting development in baseball since the beer girls at Tokyo Dome!

Why didnt anyone tell me this in August, I could have gone to a baseball game with my girl's dad. It would have been a good change of scenery for us to drink beer and barely talk to each other, hahaha, but seriously Beer girls, thats freakin hot.

 

[JBZ]

I'm a Sox fan, and I don't know exactly what to think of the deal right now. $51 MM (not including the actual playing contract) is a ton to spend on a obvious talent, but one who is completely unproven in MLB. Everything I've read always calls Japanese baseball "AAAA" when comparing it to MLB. Thus, he will be making a leap with respect to the talent he will be facing (particularly in the American league with the DH). He is also coming into a completely foreign situation from a cultural aspect and, let's face it, Boston has never been known for its racial harmony. Further, he has to deal with a very rabid fan base, who will get all over him if he starts out slowly, particularly given the money the Sox are spending on him (if you'll remember, the fans were so harsh to BK Kim, he ended up flipping them off prior to a game).

As a fan, I hope it works out. Of course, the Sox still need to sign him, and they have to deal with Scott Boras in order to get this done, which is no picnic. My understanding is that the two sides are still pretty far apart with respect to numbers (despite this, all accounts seem to indicate that it will get done - all of the parties involved have a lot to lose if it fails, including the Seibu Lions, who are apparently in a rough financial position). Based on what I've read, I see him as being a good 2nd or 3rd starter, but it's hard to judge him without having seen him pitch. If the Sox can get this out of him, they go into the season with a pretty formidable rotation.

As for the money, my understanding is that the Sox think they can make it back and then some because his arrival will allow them to tap into the rabid Japanese baseball culture and fandom. Of course, this also assumes that the Red Sox brass know what they're doing and, given the impending deal with J.D. Drew, I'm not entirely convinced of this.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by ratboycom

Why didnt anyone tell me this in August, I could have gone to a baseball game with my girl's dad. It would have been a good change of scenery for us to drink beer and barely talk to each other, hahaha, but seriously Beer girls, thats freakin hot.

The Suntory whisky girls are hot too.

 

[Dakota rube]

For the sake of baseball I hope Matsuzaka is an abysmal failure and that the Red Sox' "investment" is a total waste. I love the Sox, but I don't at all like to see this kind of money being tossed around. This is simply going to push all other free agent spending further into the stratosphere.

 

[skalogre]

Chewing gum will be replaced with a serving of natto for good luck

Seems like an awfully expensive proposition. I don't know much about baseball but would they seriously be able to profit from this acquisition?

 

[Tokyo Slim]

Originally Posted by skalogre

Chewing gum will be replaced with a serving of natto for good luck

Seems like an awfully expensive proposition. I don't know much about baseball but would they seriously be able to profit from this acquisition?

When the M's signed Ichiro (arguably on the same "fame" level in Japan as Matsuzaka) a huge influx of asian attention was leveled at us. Seriously, entire news organizations followed him around and broadcast every game, home or away live over to Japan, where half a nation would wake up at 3am to watch him play. Thats why our ballpark is littered with Japanese advertizements on the rotating backboards, and etc. I would assume that Matsui got some of the same in NYC when he left Japan. At least temporarily, there will be massive Japanese interest in Matsuzaka, and if the Sox can get into the playoffs - even more.

Originally Posted by JBZ

I'm a Sox fan, and I don't know exactly what to think of the deal right now. $51 MM (not including the actual playing contract) is a ton to spend on a obvious talent, but one who is completely unproven in MLB. Everything I've read always calls Japanese baseball "AAAA" when comparing it to MLB. Thus, he will be making a leap with respect to the talent he will be facing (particularly in the American league with the DH). He is also coming into a completely foreign situation from a cultural aspect and, let's face it, Boston has never been known for its racial harmony. Further, he has to deal with a very rabid fan base, who will get all over him if he starts out slowly, particularly given the money the Sox are spending on him (if you'll remember, the fans were so harsh to BK Kim, he ended up flipping them off prior to a game).

Remember though, that in the WBC, Matsuzaka faced quite a few of the better major league hitters (and made them all look particularly heinous). I'm not saying that he will have the same level of success against EVERYONE in MLB, but it's not like he's afraid to pitch to Major leaguers. He had a 1.38 ERA over 3 games in the WBC.

Personally, I'm hoping that he does well.

 

[briancl]

Originally Posted by JBZ

I'm a Sox fan, and I don't know exactly what to think of the deal right now. $51 MM (not including the actual playing contract)

Originally Posted by Dakota rube

For the sake of baseball I hope Matsuzaka is an abysmal failure and that the Red Sox' "investment" is a total waste.

You guys realize the 51.1 million bid is a refundable posting fee? The Red Sox didn't spend that money just to talk to the guy. They are paying for exclusive rights to negotiate with him. If they cannot negotiate a deal, the Sox get all their money back. If they can negotiate a deal, then the Lions receive their posting fee.

Originally Posted by JBZ

Everything I've read always calls Japanese baseball "AAAA" when comparing it to MLB.

Did you read the outcome of the World Baseball Classic? The Japanese team won. Matsuzaka was the MVP.

Originally Posted by JBZ

If you'll remember, the fans were so harsh to BK Kim, he ended up flipping them off prior to a game

Picking up Byung Hyun Kim was one of the worst moves the Sox have made in recent years. I remember cringing when I read about that. He was _never_ a good pitcher for any team. He had his moments with the Diamondbacks, but he blew a lot of save opportunities, including two very important World Series games..

Originally Posted by JBZ

all of the parties involved have a lot to lose if it fails

What do the Red Sox have to lose? There are other pitchers on the market and Papelbon will be a starter next year.

Originally Posted by JBZ

Of course, this also assumes that the Red Sox brass know what they're doing and, given the impending deal with J.D. Drew, I'm not entirely convinced of this.

The same brass that made the horribly unpopular, yet incredibly smart decision of trading Nomar in the middle of a season. The decision eventually won them their first World Series in 86 years.

By picking up J.D. Drew, the Sox can unload Manny, who will be a free agent at the end of 07. The Sox want to get something for him while they still can. This is a smart move.