2017 MLB Season Thread

[clarinetplayer]



Torii Hunter is killing it.

And so is....JACKSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Steve B.]



Bullpen. Bullpen. Bullpen.

Don't be surprised if they make a trade. They have the goods to dangle out there for a closer.

I think Benoit will be THE guy though.


They are looking great though. Yesterday was a great example of how potent they can be. Jackson and Hunter getting it done. Prince has been on fire.

I was really surprised they didn't go to him when Valverde blew up.

The Giants didn't miss a beat- Wilson- Casilla- Romo

 

[edinatlanta]

How 'bout them Braves?

 

[Pennglock]

Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?

 

[Rambo]



Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.

 

[clarinetplayer]

Brayan Pena was a double hero in the Tigers 14 inning game with the Mariners. Worth staying up til 2:40 a.m. to watch.

 

[Pennglock]

Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.

I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..

 

[ethanm]

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.

I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..

You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

 

[Rambo]

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.


I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..

You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

Without getting too nerdy, I think you could safely say 6 or 7 out of 10.

 

[edinatlanta]



You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

You would. I think you can calculate it online using some of the regression calculators.

 

[ethanm]

You would. I think you can calculate it online using some of the regression calculators.

I have Stata on my personal computer. I should find some kind of massive data set and calculate it for real

 

[edinatlanta]



I have Stata on my personal computer. I should find some kind of massive data set and calculate it for real :foo:

Dude, you can't not do it now.

 

[edinatlanta]



Dude, you can't not do it now.

I'm sure to cheat you could do something involving the number of 600 and 400% winning percentage teams. But I don't know how that might help.

 

[ethanm]

Dude, you can't not do it now.

The data exists too. Alas, I am lazy and don't have my laptop at work

 

[edinatlanta]

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