2017 MLB Season Thread

Discussion in 'Entertainment, Culture, and Sports' started by edinatlanta, Feb 3, 2011.

  1. clarinetplayer

    clarinetplayer Senior member

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    And so is....JACKSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     


  2. Steve B.

    Steve B. Go Spurs Go

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    I was really surprised they didn't go to him when Valverde blew up.

    The Giants didn't miss a beat- Wilson- Casilla- Romo
     


  3. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    How 'bout them Braves?
     


  4. Pennglock

    Pennglock Senior member

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    Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

    What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?
     


  5. Rambo

    Rambo Senior member

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    too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.
     


  6. clarinetplayer

    clarinetplayer Senior member

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    [​IMG]

    Brayan Pena was a double hero in the Tigers 14 inning game with the Mariners. Worth staying up til 2:40 a.m. to watch.
     


  7. Pennglock

    Pennglock Senior member

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    Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.

    I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..
     


  8. ethanm

    ethanm Senior member

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    You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2013


  9. Rambo

    Rambo Senior member

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    Without getting too nerdy, I think you could safely say 6 or 7 out of 10.
     


  10. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    You would. I think you can calculate it online using some of the regression calculators.
     


  11. ethanm

    ethanm Senior member

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    I have Stata on my personal computer. I should find some kind of massive data set and calculate it for real [​IMG]
     


  12. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    Dude, you can't not do it now.
     


  13. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    I'm sure to cheat you could do something involving the number of 600 and 400% winning percentage teams. But I don't know how that might help.
     


  14. ethanm

    ethanm Senior member

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    The data exists too. Alas, I am lazy and don't have my laptop at work
     


  15. edinatlanta

    edinatlanta Senior member

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    Fucking gay.
     


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