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First live trade today with real money! Woo! Went long! Sigh!
Algo seems to be having a hard time getting ahold of what the market is doing right now. The fast cycling from rally to volatility to (what is starting to look like) crash is throwing it for a bit of a loop. Current market environment looks pretty damn close to our biggest dip in backtesting, which had about 17% losses over the course of six weeks.
It's definitely going to be a roller coaster unless the market pulls into full-on crash mode pretty soon, at which point the algorithm should be able to pick up fairly easily on the large unidirectional downward swing. This first position is going to be brutal though, because we'll be holding for one or two more business days after today (assuming no late-day rally today), and I have a feeling we're going to get killed. Down about 0.5% right now.
Did you?
this.
my portfolio took a beating and a half this week.
Did you?
One of my best friends made 40k in his first 3 months of online poker. He thought he was awesome and then he lost everything. Some of these posts sound like newbs on 2+2 that think they're a winning players because they're up after 10k hands. Come back after 100k hands and then we'll see.
How long is this test period supposed to run for? What Charley is referencing, to use the poker term, is the variance. Things could be going well for several months and then boom, it all turns to **** all of a sudden. You see it in poker all the time which is why you need such a huge hand sample to be able to say whether you're winning or not.
Good luck though. If you make money I hope you donate it all to Green Peace, Code Pink and the NLRB. They're all counting on you! (and only a capitalist pig would use the money himself)
^^ Ya, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but making any sort of assessment of success or failure of a strategy after a couple weeks of trading is pretty much worthless imo. That's really the only point I'm making.
Obviously there are people out there making good returns on this kind of thing but the important thing is can you keep them going for a substantial period of time?
Out of curiosity, how much data was this tested against and for how long (by whatever metric you're using)?
two things:
1: you wont get over it, take it from someone who has been there and deals with several (former) traders.
2: Should have used your own money.
I did use my own money. Or do you mean I should have only used my own money?