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NBA 2016-2017 Season Thread

Discussion in 'Entertainment, Culture, and Sports' started by RFX45, Sep 22, 2010.

  1. wojt

    wojt Well-Known Member

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    however there's annoying breed of people who rely on advanced stats too much
    kind that watch a little basketball and never/rarely played it and often don't understand basketball
    even on beginner level. They are making dumbass claims based mostly on advanced
    stats, internet is full of them; for example realgm


    weird example, as you don't really have to be a genius to figure it out ;DDDDDDDDD
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  2. edmorel

    edmorel Well-Known Member

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    in terms of your first question, just look at bball blogs/columns etc. ESPN has a computer which predicts team records strictly based on analytics. I mentioned on a knicks blog that bargnani could be a valuable member of a triangle offense due to his midrange game and immediately the first response was, "he sucks as a stretch 4 and if you are a 7 footer and can't shoot threes, you have no place in the league" :confused: One of the local papers mentioned that Shane Larkin's 3rd year option was not going to be picked up by the team and the writer mentions that he was -5 in the game against Chicago. I guess showing that as a reason for the Knicks not picking up the option. Yet, he was the second most important player for the Knicks in that game.

    The Knicks team that won 52 games did come from a ton of 3's and ball movement. But ball movement has been around since the beginning of time, that has nothing to do with analytics, As has floor spacing. Some of the analytic people act like they invented the 3 point shot and floor spacing only comes from having 2-3 point shooters on the floor at the same time.

    Obviously, known of us affect how a team is managed and we really have no idea how much or how little analytics drive anyone's decision but if you like at Houston, which is a darling of the analytics community, they have probably the most analytics driven lineup. You have the 3 point chuckers in Harden and Ariza (and Garcia off the bench) and you have the guy that only take shots from 2-5 feet away in Howard yet to me, they are a poorly constructed team that will probably win a lot of regular season games but can be stopped in the first round of the playoffs.

    Anyway, I am not anti information and any player that does not look at things like his shot chart is silly. Any coach that does not look at how certain lineups perform together is silly. I am sure that most use a balance approach of stats, "gut", experience etc. I guess I am railing against, if you want to call it that, the internet cowboys that know everything about teams/players based on what the +/- is, or the true shooting or whatever and use that to dismiss perfectly good players/teams.

    Last thing, I don't consider Dirk a stretch 4, at least in the sense that I think analytics people mean it, so maybe that is more of a semantics thing.
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. wojt

    wojt Well-Known Member

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    To me stretch 4 is someone like Matt Bonner/Robert Horry who's main job on offensive side of things is drive opposing bigs away from the basket
    Dirk main job is to score and create scoring opportunities for rest of the team so he doesn't seem to fit into that label imo
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  4. Brothersport

    Brothersport Well-Known Member

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    wojt and ed,

    yeah, you are right that internet dumbasses do exist that just look at stats and think they are the end all be all. i just think they are in the minority, rather than majority, and i don't think they're any worse than super homers who don't provide any rational thought or explanation. i group them in the same category where you just have to ignore them. i don't think that should say anything about the legitimacy of the concept of advanced stats, etc. like youre always going to find idiots, but you don't need to provide them any status.

    i truly don't agree with you guys that dirk isn't a stretch 4. he does other stuff yeah, but their entire offense is predicated upon dirk getting crazy amounts of respect on the perimeter while being a big and opening up tons of space for everyone else.
    to be honest, i don't think those people should be used as examples of the normal person that uses advanced stats for anything. a random commenter on a knicks blog and whichever intern mentioned larkin's option decline shouldn't really have any impact on your opinions, you know?

    espn's computer program that predicts records (schoene or something?) is another story. the whole idea of stats is to find useful information that isn't clear to the naked eye, so it makes sense that that program might be able to find some trends that scouts aren't able to...like the biggest victory for schoene is that they predicted a horrible knicks season 2 years ago and were roundly and scathingly destroyed by every single knicks fan. it turns out they were like a game or two off of the knicks' final win total. that doesn't mean they're always right (they miss a lot, like last year's pistons season), but sometimes they can catch things that scouts and viewers can't. that's the whole deal, it's just more viewpoints and information.

    sure floor spacing and ball movement have been around forever but it's not accurate to say those have nothing to do w/ analytics. analytics can absolutely influence how much offensive plans can skew towards that sort of stuff. doug collins in philly a couple of years ago was famously anti-advanced stats and aimed his whole offense towards long 2s, rather than floor spacing or anything.

    also, advanced stats is great for efficiency of players at different positions and 5-man lineups. i know for a fact that tons of reporters brought up melo's overwhelming efficiency at the 4 compared to the 3, and those stats definitely impacted woodson playing him there more.

    i know houston is the obvious analytics team that everyone brings up, but everyone forgets the spurs (everyone's darling franchise), the mavs, and the celts. these franchises (and honestly most franchises nowadays) spend tons of $$ and resources and they've been very successful. (obv houston is a 2nd-tier team, but nobody wins a franchise w/ only 2 great players, blah blah blah)

    i know you were exaggerating your hate of advanced stats and using hyperbole, but i still don't have any idea why a stretch 4 is a huge mistake. just baffling.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
    1 person likes this.
  5. Brothersport

    Brothersport Well-Known Member

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    btw klay got his max contract. 4 yrs, $70M

    rfx, here's where the guy you quoted earlier was wrong. it wouldn't really have saved the warriors any money extending him now.

    http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2014/11/02/klay-thompson-max-deal/

     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  6. Neo_Version 7

    Neo_Version 7 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a stats expert by any stretch but can any of you numbers guys tell me how much advanced stats influence a team's defensive schemes? I'm a Bulls fan and love watching them grind it out on defense against other teams but am curious to see what they would be like if they took the AS approach with stretch 4s, corner 3s, etc. I suppose the closest result would be something akin to the Clippers maybe?
     
  7. Brothersport

    Brothersport Well-Known Member

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    i'm def not an expert but i'm not quite sure what you mean about the stretch 4s, corner 3s, clippers on defense? do you mean if chicago focused less on D and tried to follow the prototypical analytics approach on offense?

    i think lots and lots of teams nowadays use some variation of the thibodeau defense that heavily relies on minimizing shots at the rim and corner 3s, a the expense of open mid-range shots and floaters. it would be difficult to tell how much advanced stats has influenced that, but the rise of that type of defense (indy does it too) and advanced stats is correlated. you probably know all this, though, and that's probably not your question?

    good defenses also know to have a low foul rate. the spurs have followed this for years. but one interesting thing zach lowe said last year is that portland's defense, which was really bad, had a historically low foul rate. so i guess there needs to be some measure of aggression, or else the lack of fouls also means a very poor rate of forcing turnovers.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
    1 person likes this.
  8. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Well-Known Member

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    I'm happy that Klay is sticking around and hope there are some positive externalities but there's really no other incentive to the Ws to do it now.

    I do hope they find a way to sign Draymond. Maybe they can find someone to take Lee and Barnes and free up some cap space that way. I'm hoping this is the year Barnes turns the corner but haven't seen enough reason to believe in him. Great kid but doesn't have NBA type game.

    As for analytics on defense - it's everywhere. Coaching staffs look at advanced scouting reports in tandem with the analytics reports. It influences schemes and match ups.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
    1 person likes this.
  9. HRoi

    HRoi Well-Known Member

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    Klay knew he was getting the max the minute he heard the Warriors weren't accepting Kevin Love in a trade for him.

    btw, defensive analytics has been around forever. only they used to call it "scouting".

    yeah, they use a more data and multimedia driven approach these days, but it's essentially the same thing
     
  10. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    We're rehashing an extensive past conversation about analytics. My take, as I said in the past, is that it homogenizes basketball into teams that basically play the same way because the math all points them in the same direction to all teams. McRoberts, Dirk (yes he is, he's sorta the original stretch 4), Bonner, Bosh, Danilo, Patterson, etc. Basically every team has one, and it's a highly sought after draft choice.

    It makes the games a bit boring sometimes. I like to see a clash of styles. Ali - Fraizer, Seattle - Denver, McEnroe - Borg, Oklahoma - Miami back when, that sort of thing.
     
  11. Neo_Version 7

    Neo_Version 7 Well-Known Member

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  12. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    I have Butler in fantasy. He rejected a contract extension, he's playing for a deal which is perfect for me. 24/4/2 with a steal and a block, 50% shooting. You couldn't ask for a better fantasy line.

    Lance Stephenson, also on my team, can't score a basket.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  13. NAMOR

    NAMOR Well-Known Member

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    ^ what if you're already winning in points? Effectively all you got was 2 boards and assists. That's a rich mans Rodney stuckey line. What's surprising about that line is that it almost never happened because of the last minute desicion to play. I have in my other league and opted for a waiver wire greivas Vasquez who didn't do shit. I could have used a rich mans stuckey line.

    Also, lakers are a pretty fun scrappy team to watch for 3 quarters. I have several lakers on fantasy teams and I'm constantly holding by breath hoping they don't get blown out too soon
     
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  14. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

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    He clutched 2 FTs in the last second to win the game. Indeed I am already winning on points, so they weren't as valuable as his FG%, so ignore the raw number, the bump in shooting % was helpful. He's transitioned his pre-season form to the regular season. Butler's most valuable cat is steals. Only 1 last night, but he averaged 2 a game last season.

    And it was 4 boards/2 assists. He averaged 5 and 3 last season.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  15. Brothersport

    Brothersport Well-Known Member

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    it would be pretty boring if that were to happen. i don't necessarily think it has yet. the spurs and the heat (w/ lbj) played pretty similar styles, the rockets play pretty damn differently. the suns play a balls-out frenetic style. most of those stretch 4s are very much role players, and don't impact the team's offense that much.

    memphis is actually one of the most interesting teams, and they famously hired maybe the most well-known stats guy (john hollinger from espn) to be their pseudo-gm, and they don't have a stretch ANYTHING. they're one of my favorite teams to watch and follow too.
     
  16. NAMOR

    NAMOR Well-Known Member

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    good pick man. i think he will be a solid piece for the bulls this year. and i agree he should have a really nice fantasy season
     
  17. indesertum

    indesertum Well-Known Member

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    Analytics doesn't homogenize teams. Analytics just gives you evidence for better decisions. Everything depends on personnel. If everybody on your team can't shoot 3s analytics isn't going to say shoot 3s anyways (eg pistons last year). Analytics would have showed you josh smith jacking up 3s at <28% is a terrible idea. If your team has a dude who can shoot long 2s efficiently and in ISO it's not going to say make him shoot 3s.

    One of the things analytics showed is that kevin love shooting 3s actually has a downside in that wolves got less second chance points cuz love was so good at offensive rebounds when he wasn't shooting 3s and nobody else on wolves was very good at that.

    Analytics also showed curry doing a simple entry pass isn't an efficient use of his skills when he's an incredibly efficient off ball shooter and that's exactly what they're doing more of. They're using Thompson and iguodala as entry passers more instead with curry coming off a simple floppy set.

    It's not just about 3s

    How the hell is Dirk not a stretch 4? Dirk is prototype for stretch 4s (and the best stretch 4 right now). Dirk was so good as a stretch 4 he made teams look to Europe for stretch 4s (hello milicic hello Bargnani) just like magic johnson made teams look for point forwards. LMA is the 2nd best and he doesn't even shoot 3s

    Such ridiculous strawmans. Literally nobody is arguing every team in the league should only shoot 3s and layups. Rockets are doing that because that's the personnel they have. They don't have anybody who can knock down long 2s efficiently all the time. They do however have players who can shoot 3s and drive and players who have great post games.

    Stretch 4s are popular right now because it's the easiest way to open the floor up for people to attack the basket. There are other ways to create space like cutting and good passing and that takes a lot more work on the part of the team and coaching staff which is what the wizards and warriors are doing right now not because they're against analytics but because thats what analytics says.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2014
  18. HRoi

    HRoi Well-Known Member

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    it's true that stretch 4's make teams shittier at rebounding, for the obvious reason. but teams have found that crashing the offensive glass is a net negative strategy because it compromises your transition defense and your chances at getting a board are pretty bad anyway. this may not be applicable in the case of the aforementioned Love, because he's such a beast on the boards, but it generally holds.
     
  19. wojt

    wojt Well-Known Member

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    Well Dirk is the most famous perimeter oriented PF but not really the prototype at this stretch 4.... there were really many before him. They are shitloads of them now though. Still there are teams who play against the trend true to their personnel and are successful like indesertum mentioned, Grizz have to be the most oldschool team with loads of success. There is no one way to win a basketball game and that's the beauty of it.
     
  20. HRoi

    HRoi Well-Known Member

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    The term "stretch 4" also sounds stupid. It's like that slimy stretchy goo that looked like phlegm that you used to play with as a kid
     

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