Australian Members

[appolyon]

I'm not much of an ebayer and when I do it's mostly buy it now stuff. But when you have 5 guys all bidding on one thing, all using a sniper, who wins?

The one who's put in the highest bid using their sniping tool.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

 

[DartagnanRed]

Very interesting JM, particularly "I think that people can often be strongly influenced by the perceived value that someone else accords to an item".
I've been thinking a lot recently about the relationship between price and value. I've come to the conclusion that the less that an individual knows about a good, the more likely they are are to judge by price (which is by no means a ground breaking realisation).

I also think the extent to which perceptions of value are influenced by price seems to be dependent on the personality/character of individuals. In particular, some people seem to be quite altruistic (for lack of a better word) regarding prices. Sometimes I see people buy things on sale and be content with the notion that they have somehow 'beaten' everyone else. In their minds, the price they paid was the best price because it was lower than what other people who did not buy on sale paid.

Everyone has of course seen a similar example of this "consumer altruism" in which people buy things at a high price, knowing that others know the price that was paid. This is the basis for the intriguing upward sloping demand curve seen for some goods. I would contend that individualistic people, who are knowledgeable about the goods they buy, do not display upwards sloping demand curves for any good.

This relates to the eBay example, in that perhaps when another bidder sees your bid is higher than theirs, they are sucked in to this altruistic consumer model. Either they can't handle the notion that someone else is beating them and revisit their price, or they revisit their maximum price based on the idea that if someone else is willing to pay that price, then the good must be worth it.

 

[DartagnanRed]

This made my day, brilliant.

 

[DartagnanRed]

I'm not much of an ebayer and when I do it's mostly buy it now stuff. But when you have 5 guys all bidding on one thing, all using a sniper, who wins?

Importantly, the person who wins is the same person who would have won had there been no sniping tool.

 

[lachyzee]

I think forcing yourself to use of a sniping tool and then walking away from the auction is good since it means, hopefully, that you don't bid more for something that what you are willing to pay, instead of being influenced by adrenaline and others' bids when you are sitting on an item and placing manual bids.

 

[joiji]

Quote:
Just an Old English 2 on the F, in black calf. Nailing down size then might get some casual shell or something. 390 Euro shipped, which is about $470 for us atm, gotta get the wire transfer done this week though, so there's a bit more cost there unfortunately.

 

[DartagnanRed]

You assume that people only put in their "maximum bid" as the absolute max price they are willing to pay. They do not. They put in the maximum price they believe they need to win the auction at any given time, but which is still ≤ their max price. If they are still behind the leader, they will up their price until they reach their true maximum. They have not reassessed their value, only what they think they need to do to beat you. If their true maximum bid is still behind your bid, then you will end up paying the absolute maximum that someone else was willing to pay for the item, rather than a dollar more than what they thought they could get it for.
Ya follow me?
You are absolutely right. It is easier and less time consuming to do this - but like most things in life that are easy and quick it will cost you more money.

But the process you've outlined is extremely irrational. If you and I are bidding on an auction, I have two ways to find your maximum bid. I could screw around and post $2 incremental bids until I beat you, or I could simply post my maximum bid. If this is higher than your amount, I will have effectively found your highest bid (which may or may not be your maximum). If it is your maximum bid, I will have won. If it is not your maximum bid, I will possibly lose, if you keep screwing around until you eventually post your max bid. As I have gone in early, it doesn't concern me whether you up your bid now, or 5 minutes before the end of the auction. You'll only beat me if you bid more than my maximum bid. In summary, there are only a few scenarios that can eventuate:

1) Neither bidder snipes. A normal auction ensures.
2) One bidder snipes, one doesn't. Also assume the one that didn't snipe has entered their max bid. In this case there is no advantage to sniping, as the entry of further bids by the sniper has no impact on the non-sniper, who is already content with his max bid.
3) Both persons snipe. This effectively leads to the same scenario as (1). There is no advantage to sniping
4) One bidder snipes, the other doesn't. The one who hasn't sniped has not entered their max bid (likely because they are an idiot). If you try to outbid this person, they will slowly up their bid for some absurd reason. The sniper will win only because they don't give the idiot time to realise their max bid and re-assess their own max bid. In other words, the sniper is the same sort of idiot with a time advantage...

How likely is scenario 4 given we all know about sniping?

 

[Selvaggio]

DR, I think problem with your rationality argument when it comes to ebay is that the blind auction process itself means that purchasing decisions are more complicated than just obtaining a good at a value which the purchaser deems fair value. The purchase process can also be about winning.

I have seen bidding wars take the price of a second hand item well past the RRP. What explains that? Or, when you look at the completed auctions for commonly traded items, there is clearly a market price - but then there are outliers at prices considerably above this.

The assumption of byer/seller rationality works at an aggregate market level - where many transactions have occured and the results averaged. But you can't assume rationality for just one transaction.

...hence sniping.

 

[DartagnanRed]

I think forcing yourself to use of a sniping tool and then walking away from the auction is good since it means, hopefully, that you don't bid more for something that what you are willing to pay, instead of being influenced by adrenaline and others' bids when you are sitting on an item and placing manual bids.

Haha this is quite funny in an absurd sort of way. You shouldn't bid more for something than you are willing to pay under the normal system! Forcing yourself not to up your max bid on the sniping tool is the same as forcing yourself not to up your max bid on a normal eBay auction!

 

[DartagnanRed]

DR, I think problem with your rationality argument when it comes to ebay is that the blind auction process itself means that purchasing decisions are more complicated than just obtaining a good at a value which the purchaser deems fair value. The purchase process can also be about winning.
I have seen bidding wars take the price of a second hand item well past the RRP. What explains that? Or, when you look at the completed auctions for commonly traded items, there is clearly a market price - but then there are outliers at prices considerably above this.
The assumption of byer/seller rationality works at an aggregate market level - where many transactions have occured and the results averaged. But you can't assume rationality for just one transaction.
...hence sniping.

Agreed, there are some idiots out there. Sniping won't help you beat them. In the example your outlined, the obvious response is to place a max bid that is less or equal to RRP and wait. If a particular auction ends up being one of the stupid ones you have described, then sniping isn't going to help you either.

If you lose, buy at RRP, you beat the idiots.

 

[Gerry Nelson]

Haha this is quite funny in an absurd sort of way. You shouldn't bid more for something than you are willing to pay under the normal system! Forcing yourself not to up your max bid on the sniping tool is the same as forcing yourself not to up your max bid on a normal eBay auction!

DR, how do you handle this scenario (I've experienced similar ones)?

You want to get a Barbour jacket (for example). There are five up on eBay and the auctions are ending at around the same time, say 3:30am because the sellers are in the US. You wouldn't mind winning any one of them but you obviously don't want to end up with five of them. Remember, once your bid is in, that's it. Actually, can you even withdraw eBay bids?

Without Gixen, I'd need to stay up till the early hours and manage this all manually.
With Gixen, I can bid on all five and group the bids so that if I win one, all my other bids on the other items are withdrawn.

 

[DartagnanRed]

DR, how do you handle this scenario (I've experienced similar ones)?

You want to get a Barbour jacket (for example). There are five up on eBay and the auctions are ending at around the same time, say 3:30am because the sellers are in the US. You wouldn't mind winning any one of them but you obviously don't want to end up with five of them.

Without Gixen, I'd need to stay up till the early hours and manage this all manually.
With Gixen, I can bid on all five and group the bids so that if I win one, all my other bids on the other items are withdrawn.

Great example, but that's not sniping per se. I wasn't arguing against Gixen, it obviously makes sense in situations like this.

But, I assume by "withdrawn" you mean no bid was actually made in the first place because you can't withdraw a bid under eBay's rules (legitimately). So if the auctions are finishing at different times, and likely at different prices, how will software help you?

I assume that you just put in a blanket max bid in GIxen, and if you win an item below this bid it doesn't bid on the others?

 

[jobro]



Great example, but that's not sniping per se. I wasn't arguing against Gixen, it obviously makes sense in situations like this.

But, I assume by "withdrawn" you mean no bid was actually made in the first place because you can't withdraw a bid under eBay's rules (legitimately). So if the auctions are finishing at different times, and likely at different prices, how will software help you?

I assume that you just put in a blanket max bid in GIxen, and if you win an item below this bid it doesn't bid on the others?

If you win an item from one group, it does not place bids on the rest.

 

[fxh]



.................. but there are a lot of people on eBay who don't behave sensibly or rationally and prices get pushed up as a result.
.

Really??
I'm shocked I tell you.

Shocked.