Originally Posted by The Deacon
I don't doubt that you win but
I don't get the logic. Doesn't your theory work only if you are among others who've bid early ( early being a relative term) such that the you all have pushed the price up? Conversely, if you've bid early and no others have bid and I see that the price is say 50.00 on a starting bid of $49.00, I'll still wait until the last few seconds. I won't be discouraged by the possibility that your max is high(higher than $50) if I really want them.
My last seconds bids are what I'm comfortable as my max, I just happen to prefer to bid at the end as I'm about 80% successful that way. Whenever I bid my max at the beginning I generally lose. Would I have lost the Nettletons with my $277 max if I had bid early? According to many here, probably not but I suspect that I'd have paid more as they would have had more time to hunt out the limit before opting out. Interesting psychology around this topic.
Last year I won nice browned shell #8 ALden LHS for 86.00 at last few seconds while others were battling at 1.50 increments. I sold them a few months ago for $150.00 to equal activity. We all have our experiences with this stuff.
As you said, everyone has their experiences. But mine is that you're far more likely to lose them to a $278 bid if you bid on the first day and leave it, because people have time to find your limit. If you snipe, you don't give competitors a chance to test your limit, so you're more likely to get them below your limit and less likely to lose by a dollar. YMMV, so I'll stop belaboring my view.