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Australian Members - Page 1397

post #20941 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by fxh View Post

Small anecdote ( I know I know - the plural of anecdote is not data and data is not information; information is not knowledge; knowledge is not wisdom.)
A few years back I purchased my garage gym from a warehouse in Altona.
I found them through ebay but noticed they also had a physical store at the warehouse. So I just drove out and perused their showroom.
When picking it up I asked the bloke why he listed on ebay auctions.
He said the vast majority of ebay sales were a significant way above his standard store price he advertised at and very few were ever below the standard price.
His standard store price was easily found by a simple few clicks and/ or a search.

Don't tell me this is why real estate agents (those honest, reliable men and women) usually prefer to sell houses at auction rather than set a price?
post #20942 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by fxh View Post

To add to the basic economics class. ( I'm just waiting for someone to post a curve.)

Surely, what this thread really needs is a discussion of Pareto efficiency as it applies to the market for second-hand waxed cotton hunting jackets.
post #20943 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by DartagnanRed View Post

As for the rest of this, I think I have addressed this at least twice in what I've already written. It should not affect your behaviour if others aren't putting their max bids in, because you can assume that at some point they will put those bids in, either through the normal bidding process or through sniping.

You will end up paying the same amount in most auctions, unless the other person is irrationally not posting their max bid AND they aren't sniping. This is increasingly unlikely.

As I have said, many people don't ever put their max bids. They just bid enough to be in the lead at any one time, ie exhibiting the behaviour I outlined above.

If they happen to be away from the computer or asleep when an auction ends, then their max bid never gets entered. If you are the only other bidder, then you might win it for 60% of the other person's actual max bid - because it never gets placed.

That's what everyone is hoping for.

There is a very real advantage to this approach (only putting in your max bid if you absolutely have to) in auctions with small amounts of bidders. The possibility of this working grows smaller for every other bidder involved. Obviously, as you have said, the possibility of this working grows smaller when more and more people use a last minute auto-bid program.

E.g. Person A is willing to buy X for $100, but would of course like to buy it cheaper. The auction starts at $20. Person A bids $30 to be in the lead.

Person B comes along, also willing to pay $100 for the same jacket. They bid $40 to be in the lead.

The auction ends, Person B is away from the computer and not using an auto bid program. Person A bids $50 and wins the item.

compared to:

Person A is willing to buy X for $100, but would of course like to buy it cheaper. The auction starts at $20. Person A bids $95 to be in the lead.

Person B comes along, also willing to pay around $100 for the same jacket. They see the current bid at $96 and so bid $100 to be in the lead.

The auction ends, Person B is away from the computer and not using an auto bid program. Person A bids $101 and wins the item.

It is a very simplistic example but that is how most auctions play out in real life. As I have said, the more bidders, the less likely this approach is to work. Nevertheless, it is what everyone is hoping for.
post #20944 of 57883
Basically you behave irrationally (not placing your max bid) in the hope that the other person will also behave irrationally (not placing their max bid) in the hope that the other person will never place their max bid due to being away from the computer when the auction ends. In this way, your initial irrational action of not placing your max bid is rationalised...
post #20945 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by Selvaggio View Post

I think I'd vote tassel as it is less common and a bit from-another-era, but you've already got some of that goodnes with it being burgundy and the penny is probably more versatile. I could spend days on that one.

Yeah, same here man. Which is why I had second thoughts.

Thanks for all the suggestions guys smile.gif
post #20946 of 57883
Going to your limit on bid 1 in any auction is not rational - it's dumb.

If you don't believe me, you are most welcome the next time I sell a property at auction.
post #20947 of 57883
^ LOL
post #20948 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prince of Paisley View Post


The answer is scenario 4 is not just very likely, but very common - which was my original point. You are actually an idiot if you put your maximum bid in first - who does that in any type of auction?? Do you go to a property auction prepared to pay $400k for a house and when the bidding starts at $200k you bid $500k? Or do you start around $210k and hope against hope the auction doesn't get anywhere near your limit so you can secure the property at the lowest price possible?
See this short video for a demonstration of what I mean:
http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/DVefIlegVgkahg/scene-at-the-auction

Obviously I do not mean this because eBay is a different type of auction. In your example if you are prepared to pay $400k you bid small and up to this maximum. If the house auction were on eBay, you'd put in your max bid at $400k, and if the current bidding was at $200k, eBay would increase the bid above this based on its standard increment. You would end up with the same result as if you bid up to $400k in 10k increments. You wouldn't bid $500k because that's more than you are prepared to pay. Surely this goes without saying?

post #20949 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prince of Paisley View Post

Going to your limit on bid 1 in any auction is not rational - it's dumb.
If you don't believe me, you are most welcome the next time I sell a property at auction.

Come on, it is bleedingly obvious that eBay uses a different auction system. If it had the same auction system as a house auction, I wouldn't be bothered having this discussion.

post #20950 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by lachyzee View Post

Basically you behave irrationally (not placing your max bid) in the hope that the other person will also behave irrationally (not placing their max bid) in the hope that the other person will never place their max bid due to being away from the computer when the auction ends. In this way, your initial irrational action of not placing your max bid is rationalised...

Yes, this was my scenario 4. But you are betting that the other person isn't sniping.

 

Perhaps I underestimate the stupidity of eBay users.

post #20951 of 57883
No one has mentioned that most "wins" on ebay are obtained whilst tired or drunk or stoned or most likely all of above. (Just like shoe purchases online.)

What does Hayek say about that?
post #20952 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by fxh View Post

No one has mentioned that most "wins" on ebay are obtained whilst tired or drunk or stoned or most likely all of above. (Just like shoe purchases online.)
What does Hayek say about that?

Friedrich or Salma?
post #20953 of 57883
Does anyone here watch any of the following:

The Walking Dead
Breaking Bad
Mad Men
Boardwalk Empire
Dexter


If YES, please tell me other shows to watch. I'm likely going to be spending a bit of time recovering post op and want some things to watch on the TV.
post #20954 of 57883
Sopranos, if you haven't already.
post #20955 of 57883
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebrownman View Post

Does anyone here watch any of the following:
The Walking Dead
Breaking Bad
Mad Men
Boardwalk Empire
Dexter

If YES, please tell me other shows to watch. I'm likely going to be spending a bit of time recovering post op and want some things to watch on the TV.

Walking Dead is awesome! Ep5 is out, such a bad ass show.

Homeland is also great too!

Cant go wrong with 24 series if you haven seen it yet.
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