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If Schilling and Pedro retire tomorrow . . .

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
who gets into the Hall of Fame?  Both have around 180 wins, a definitive postseason performance, and a ring (two, in Schilling's case).  I think Pedro is in right now.  He has three Cy Young awards, and a four-year run from 1997 to 2000 that was as dominant as any pitcher's ever, including Sandy Koufax's from 1963 to 1966.  I would argue that Pedro's run was more dominant when you compare his ERA to the league average ERA.  A few more years at his average-win pace and he is a lock.  Schilling, on the other hand, is probably on the outside looking into Cooperstown right now.  Three 20-win seasons, but no Cy Young awards.  I think he is thought of as a great pitcher, but not one of the best of his generation. What say you?
post #2 of 16
I'd agree at this point: Schilling's #s: W-L 184-123 ERA 3.32 K 2745 K/IP 8.78 BAA .239 Pedro's #s: W-L 182-76 ERA 2.71 K 2653 K/IP 10.4 BAA .209 Pedro has great #s, and was the best pitcher in the ML for a long time. Schilling has been dominant for several years but IMO needs to win 20 games for 2-3 more years to be HOF material.
post #3 of 16
Bill Buckner should be in the Hall of Fame. Good numbers. Showed longevity.
post #4 of 16
Sorry, giddy Bosox fans. IMO neither gets in...
post #5 of 16
Umm: Sandy Koufax : W/L 165-87 ERA 2.76 K 2396 K/9 Inn: 9.28 Sandy was a first ballot Hall of Famer and pitched with a higher mound in a time where league ERAs were 3.63 during his career. League ERAs during Pedro's career to date averaged 4.53, meaning his 2.71 was 1.82 better than the league, while Koufax averaged less than 1 pt better than the league. During Koufax's best season, he was 25-5, with 306 strikeouts in 311 IP (8.9 K/IP) and a 1.88 ERA. The league ERA was 3.02 that season, meaning Koufax exceeded the league average by 1.14 points. During Pedro's best season, he was 23-4, with 313 strikeouts in 213 IP (13.22 K/IP) and a 2.07 ERA when the league average was 5.07, exceeding the league average by 3 FULL POINTS. That may have been the best pitching season in the modern game. I think Pedro makes the Hall easily on the first ballot if he retired tommorow, he's arguably the best pitcher of his generation and compares favorably to some of the best pitchers of all time, but I think he will pitch 5-10 more years and win 300 games fairly easily.
post #6 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
I think Pedro makes the Hall easily on the first ballot if he retired tommorow, he's arguably the best pitcher of his generation and compares favorably to some of the best pitchers of all time, but I think he will pitch 5-10 more years and win 300 games fairly easily.
I agree that Pedro makes the HOF easily, but there is no way he gets anywhere close to 300 wins.  He sustained a serious shoulder injury in 2001, which led to his downward slide (for him) the past several years.  He has a very frail frame (5'11" and 180 pounds soaking wet) for a power pitcher.  I think he pitches 5 more years tops and notches around 250 wins.
post #7 of 16
The mistake is that you are just comparing Pedro's best season vs. Koufax's best season. Koufax didn't get into the HOF for only 1 great season; you need to compare 5 seasons. Pedro was not as dominant as Sandy Koufax during the peak of their careers. Koufax won 25 games 3X, 5 straight ERA titles, and pitched 4 no-hitters in consecutive seasons. He won 3 Cy Young awards, when they were given for being the best pitcher in the majors, and not for just your league. Keep in mind, he should have won 2 more. During this time, at Sandy's peak, he was able to carry the dodgers to 3 championships by posting .95 ERA in 4 world series. Also, the best pitcher in Red Sox history is still Roger Clemens. He will easily get into the HOF on the first ballot. It's still a shame that Buckner was never given the recognition he deserves, and isn't in the HOF. It would be really classy if they give him a spot during the parade. He deserves it for all the crap he had to put up with. Last I heard, he was exiled in Boise, Idaho.
post #8 of 16
Ok, so lets compare their 4 best seasons. Koufax 1963 W-L 25-5 IP 311.0 K 306 ERA 1.88 LERA 3.02 K/9 8.85 1964 W-L 19-5 IP 223.0 K 223 ERA 1.74 LERA 3.25 K/9 9.00 1965 W-L 26-8 IP 335.7 K 382 ERA 2.04 LERA 3.26 K/9 10.23 1966 W-L 27-9 IP 323.0 K 317 ERA 1.73 LERA 3.28 K/9 8.83 Total: W-L 97-27 IP 1193 K 1228 ERA 1.79 LERA 3.20 K/9 9.26 Martinez 1997 W-L 17-8 IP 241.3 K 305 ERA 1.90 LERA 4.21 K/9 11.39 1999 W-L 23-4 IP 213.3 K 313 ERA 2.07 LERA 5.07 K/9 13.22 2000 W-L 18-6 IP 217.0 K 284 ERA 1.74 LERA 4.97 K/9 11.78 2002 W-L 20-4 IP 199.3 K 239 ERA 2.26 LERA 4.42 K/9 10.80 Total: W-L 78-22 IP 870 K 1141 ERA 1.95 LERA 4.67 K/9 11.81 Koufax won more games but he also pitched 50% more innings, and only struck out 80 more people. Martinez's worst K/9 season was better than Koufax's best, and Martinez averaged 2.6 points better than the league ERA while Koufax was only 1.4 points better than the league ERA. As for Clemens, if you look at the numbers, he was nowhere near as dominant as either of these two in any season. In the one season he posted with < 2 ERA, he struck out only 8.5 batters per 9 innings, and in his 20-3 season, his ERA was 3.51. If you want to argue dominance from a modern day pitcher, you have to look at Randy Johnson's 2001 season where he was 21-6 with 372 strikeouts in 249 innings, or Maddux's 1995 season where he was 19-2 with 1.63 ERA.
post #9 of 16
Quote:
I think Pedro makes the Hall easily on the first ballot if he retired tommorow, he's arguably the best pitcher of his generation and compares favorably to some of the best pitchers of all time, but I think he will pitch 5-10 more years and win 300 games fairly easily.
No way...Maddux, Randy Johnson and Clemens are all demonstrably better. And Rivera as a dominant closer. 1st ballot? Win 300 games? Wanna place a small wager on this? I think you guys are letting those 86 years of pent up emotion get away with you...
post #10 of 16
Please demonstrate how Maddux, RJ, or Clemens are better than Pedro in a comparable period of time. Remember that Pedro is 33 and can pitch longer than any of the other players. I'd like to see a 4 season block as I posted above from either of the above players that is better than what Pedro has done in the four seasons I selected. I'm not going to place a bet on something 10 years in the future, that's a bit silly...
post #11 of 16
Quote:
Koufax won more games but he also pitched 50% more innings, and only struck out 80 more people.  
Umm, pitching 50% more innings is usually considered a good thing. The knock on Pedro is that everybody thought his arm wouldn't be able to handle all the stress of pitching. That's why the Dodgers traded him for Delino Deshields. But, he's proven everybody wrong so far... CTGuy, What's your problem? We're just discussing who should get into the HOF. I'm not denying Pedro was a great pitcher, just whether its fair to say he's better than Sandy Koufax. You're the one who complains about how the Yankees are so evil for spending so much money and how they are to make trades that nobody else can. But, I pointed out in the other thread that a lot of the trades the Yankees made actually helped the Red Sox this year. Also, the Red Sox had the second highest payroll in the major leagues. Really, the Red Sox are no different than the Yankees. They're like those two enemies in Orwell's 1984- they're all the same really. The ratio for the Yankees/Red Sox payroll was .72. While the ratio for the Red Sox/Cardinals was .69. How come the Cardinals don't complain about how unfair it is?
post #12 of 16
The man's been waiting 86 years to gloat. Nice problem to have. As far as Pedro goes, if you, like me, had watched him pitch from 1998 to 2000, day in and day out, you would understand just how good he was. Even today, with a huge game on the line, there is no one in the league I would rather have on the mound.
post #13 of 16
The Dodgers had a good pitching staff at that time and Martinez was expendable, obviously it wasn't a good trade looking back, but then again, who knows about this kind of thing? The Brian Giles trade may end up being the same way for the Padres. christian: Back in the day of the 3-4 man rotation, people got more starts, the point is that Pedro has done more with less opportunities to do so, no pitcher is going to throw 300 IP in the modern era, both due to pitch counts, a longer season, and expanded rotations. Even if Pedro pitched 9 innings every game, he only started 31-33 games per year so he wouldn't get 300 IP anyways. Pedro's stats are MUCH better than Koufax's without even considering that Koufax played for World Series winning teams and Pedro played for the Expos during part of that time... Factor in that league ERAs were ~3 during that the Koufax era and > 5 during Pedro's reign... that is something most people don't consider. If everyone is averaging a 3.0 ERA, a 1.80 isn't that impressive... the mound was higher during that era, allowing for more movement and velocity from pitchers, if Pedro pitched then with a higher mound and 3 man rotation, he could have dominated even more than he has now, factor in the better nutrition and fitness of today's players...
post #14 of 16
Pedro will make the Hall but I think it will take more than one ballot. With the way they coddle pitchers these days it may be highly unlikely to see many more 300 game winners beyond Clemens and Johnson. Even when I was growing up in the 80s when Clemens was a rookie, complete games or 7-8 inning games were very common. Sometime in the 1970s (I think) the 4-man rotation gave way to the 5-man. The last team to go all season long with a 4-man was Toronto in '93 (IIRC) and they won it all that year--go figure. I think that both sets of numbers really can't be compared without ample exception given to context, regardless of what kind of extenuating commentary ensues.
post #15 of 16
Maddux has won 300 games. Johnson has to win 54 more which may be hard unless he goes to a better team. Glavine has the best shot of any active player probably. Mussina has an outside shot, as he's won 218, the thing is, it's taking longer for pitchers to start in the ML, which means it's harder for them to win games quickly, Zito, Mulder, Hudson all have about 90 wins at age 26-29, which means they have a shot if they can win 15+ per season. Pettitte would have an outside shot if he could stay healthy, but likely won't exceed 250. I think people really don't understand how dominant Pedro was in 1999. Johan Santana was considered unhittalble this year, he was 20-9 with 265 K in 228 IP. Martinez had less than half the losses, with more wins, and 50 more strikeouts in 15 less IP in a year where the league ERA was half a point higher...
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