Originally Posted by Biggskip
Originally Posted by Noctone
it's gonna be real entertaining to see what happens to SF and the greater Bay Area when (not if) the tech industry craters
We've had this conversation before. We're all aware of Fumma's thoughts on the vacuous app-driven culture, but we're a long way from Tech Bubble 2.0.
Companies are much better capitalized than before and more importantly they have a much stronger management culture. Will Twitter ever live up to its expectations implied by its market cap, probably not, but I don't think it's going the way of Pets.com either.
So while I can envision a scenario where the stock price of tech firms comes down and the resulting wealth effect creates a certain "recession" mindset in the region for a while, I don't see that setting off some sort of chain reaction where people are buying homes a block at a time or Senior Programming Leads using their underwater options as a replacement good for toilet paper.
some other views from the center of industries leading up to 1929 and 2006
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors
“I don't worry about new home sales,”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist
"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co
"We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.”
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
"There is no bubble to burst,"
- Jim Folkman, VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico
"... a serious depression seems improbable"
- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929
"There was never a "bubble", so there is nothing to "burst".
- Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor