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OMG THE TECH BUBBLE SKY MAY BURST - a discussion

post #1 of 36
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noctone View Post

it's gonna be real entertaining to see what happens to SF and the greater Bay Area when (not if) the tech industry craters

We've had this conversation before. We're all aware of Fumma's thoughts on the vacuous app-driven culture, but we're a long way from Tech Bubble 2.0.

Companies are much better capitalized than before and more importantly they have a much stronger management culture. Will Twitter ever live up to its expectations implied by its market cap, probably not, but I don't think it's going the way of Pets.com either.

So while I can envision a scenario where the stock price of tech firms comes down and the resulting wealth effect creates a certain "recession" mindset in the region for a while, I don't see that setting off some sort of chain reaction where people are buying homes a block at a time or Senior Programming Leads using their underwater options as a replacement good for toilet paper.
post #2 of 36
The tech industry is going absolutely nowhere. If anything is continuously growing. Trust me, as someone who has a pretty good view of what's happening at the center - no one is going anywhere.
post #3 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggskip View Post

We've had this conversation before. We're all aware of Fumma's thoughts on the vacuous app-driven culture, but we're a long way from Tech Bubble 2.0.

Companies are much better capitalized than before and more importantly they have a much stronger management culture. Will Twitter ever live up to its expectations implied by its market cap, probably not, but I don't think it's going the way of Pets.com either.

So while I can envision a scenario where the stock price of tech firms comes down and the resulting wealth effect creates a certain "recession" mindset in the region for a while, I don't see that setting off some sort of chain reaction where people are buying homes a block at a time or Senior Programming Leads using their underwater options as a replacement good for toilet paper.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Moo View Post

The tech industry is going absolutely nowhere. If anything is continuously growing. Trust me, as someone who has a pretty good view of what's happening at the center - no one is going anywhere.

@Both - I agree tech is growing and is funded much better than the bubble that burst in the late 90s. However, i am concerned about how well things are going. Eventually something is gotta give, i just hope it won't be as bad as the the late 90s or the 07/08 financial crisis.
post #4 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggskip View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noctone View Post

it's gonna be real entertaining to see what happens to SF and the greater Bay Area when (not if) the tech industry craters

We've had this conversation before. We're all aware of Fumma's thoughts on the vacuous app-driven culture, but we're a long way from Tech Bubble 2.0.

Companies are much better capitalized than before and more importantly they have a much stronger management culture. Will Twitter ever live up to its expectations implied by its market cap, probably not, but I don't think it's going the way of Pets.com either.

So while I can envision a scenario where the stock price of tech firms comes down and the resulting wealth effect creates a certain "recession" mindset in the region for a while, I don't see that setting off some sort of chain reaction where people are buying homes a block at a time or Senior Programming Leads using their underwater options as a replacement good for toilet paper.

some other views from the center of industries leading up to 1929 and 2006 teacha.gif

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

"It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors

“I don't worry about new home sales,”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist

"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co

"We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.”
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"There is no bubble to burst,"
- Jim Folkman, VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico

"... a serious depression seems improbable"
- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

"There was never a "bubble", so there is nothing to "burst".
- Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor
post #5 of 36

As someone working in IT, I really hope I'm wrong but I definitely think we're in a bubble. And as Shah pointed out above, most people (including "experts" or even especially "experts") think there's no bubble until it bursts right in front of them.

post #6 of 36
Thread Starter 
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

some other views from the center of industries leading up to 1929 and 2006 teacha.gif

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

"It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors

“I don't worry about new home sales,”
- James Glassman, JP Morgan Chase Economist

"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co

"We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.”
- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"There is no bubble to burst,"
- Jim Folkman, VP of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico

"... a serious depression seems improbable"
- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929

"There was never a "bubble", so there is nothing to "burst".
- Jeromith Sutton, 2006, NAR Investment Advisor

I never said the industry was immune from a downturn, I just think that a. it's not in a bubble state right now and b. when the downturn comes it won't be nearly as catastrophic.

When receptionists at nail salons are sitting on the boards of four to five tech firms at once, then I'll be concerned.
post #7 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggskip View Post

when the downturn comes it won't be nearly as catastrophic.


It depends on how the downturn plays out and what starts it, if the China bubble blows up, it's going to get real ugly for everyone.
post #8 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by MickeyPunch View Post
 

As someone working in IT, I really hope I'm wrong but I definitely think we're in a bubble. And as Shah pointed out above, most people (including "experts" or even especially "experts") think there's no bubble until it bursts right in front of them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggskip View Post
I never said the industry was immune from a downturn, I just think that a. it's not in a bubble state right now and b. when the downturn comes it won't be nearly as catastrophic.

When receptionists at nail salons are sitting on the boards of four to five tech firms at once, then I'll be concerned.

While I am not sure how big the bubble is, I am sure that there is one, and that we are in one now.  

 

Just looking at all of the tech fashion startups for men, and even accounting for the overall growth in menswear, I see a few issues:

1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics".

2) The pace at which there are new companies is outpacing the incremental increase in the demand for menswear

3) With more and more companies competing in the same sector, the bets investors are making are increasingly long, so it will become increasingly difficult to win.  

 

As for "experts", I'm typically not that impressed, mostly because a lot of them don't take do enough groundwork, and/or rely on reports and standard metrics about a company rather than really understanding the meat.  For example, imo, if you are not interested in clothing, you are much more likely to not see the glaring issues with a company that sells clothing.  

post #9 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post

It depends on how the downturn plays out and what starts it, if the China bubble blows up, it's going to get real ugly for everyone.

This.  This is the real danger.

post #10 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by LA Guy View Post
 

While I am not sure how big the bubble is, I am sure that there is one, and that we are in one now.  

 

Just looking at all of the tech fashion startups for men, and even accounting for the overall growth in menswear, I see a few issues:

1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics".

2) The pace at which there are new companies is outpacing the incremental increase in the demand for menswear

3) With more and more companies competing in the same sector, the bets investors are making are increasingly long, so it will become increasingly difficult to win.  

 

As for "experts", I'm typically not that impressed, mostly because a lot of them don't take do enough groundwork, and/or rely on reports and standard metrics about a company rather than really understanding the meat.  For example, imo, if you are not interested in clothing, you are much more likely to not see the glaring issues with a company that sells clothing.  

"1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb" -- agreed

post #11 of 36
post #12 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by LA Guy View Post

While I am not sure how big the bubble is, I am sure that there is one, and that we are in one now.  

Just looking at all of the tech fashion startups for men, and even accounting for the overall growth in menswear, I see a few issues:
1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics".
2) The pace at which there are new companies is outpacing the incremental increase in the demand for menswear
3) With more and more companies competing in the same sector, the bets investors are making are increasingly long, so it will become increasingly difficult to win.  

As for "experts", I'm typically not that impressed, mostly because a lot of them don't take do enough groundwork, and/or rely on reports and standard metrics about a company rather than really understanding the meat.  For example, imo, if you are not interested in clothing, you are much more likely to not see the glaring issues with a company that sells clothing.  


"1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics"." - this applies to many start ups outside of fashion as well. i have recruiters emailing me and some of the companies are wtf.
post #13 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post

It depends on how the downturn plays out and what starts it, if the China bubble blows up, it's going to get real ugly for everyone.

well put man, this is my fear as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by basil rathbone View Post

Thread-split time! 

***...SF, the Tech Bubble(?), and Dadmeat - Official Thread...***

LMAO
post #14 of 36
Not sure if there will be a large burst, but the evaluations of some companies are ridiculous, what will happen is they should get more realistic. Technology is wagging the dog, each new idea or feature is a life changer must have.
post #15 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by sinnedk View Post



"1) Some of the ideas are really, really, dumb, and ignore things like "human nature" and "physics"." - this applies to many start ups outside of fashion as well. i have recruiters emailing me and some of the companies are wtf.

 



I think that stories like the Powa breakdown shows that people are simply not doing their due diligence in their eagerness to invest in a possible unicorn (http://www.businessinsider.com/powa-technologies-lines-up-deloitte-as-administrators-2016-2?r=UK&IR=T)

While that is an extreme case, there are many other, small startups that have been funded that should have raised immediate red flags.

Psychologically, I think that no matter what the talking heads say, that we are in a bubble when a lot of people all have an idea that unlimited growth is possible.
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