Breaking news on Panerai
Hah. Someone posted an Archie video. I have to say that as someone else noted they get quite old quite fast as they tend to be rather repetitive. For instance this whole market crash business has him doing multiple videos that are quite similar (though that faux press conference was good for a quick laugh). I will say that he does give out some pretty good advice at times.
Interesting topic though. There has been a discussion of a correction for a little while now. I even read that vintage would be protected but now some of the talk post auctions makes it seem like not even all vintage is safe. For me there does seem to be a good amount of inventory out there. I even noted that months ago and I'm still amazed at a site like Crown and Caliber which has the volume of some of Rolex inventory that it does. Of course it differs by model and reference, but there seems to be a lot out there.
One point that Archie made whatever video I watched was that essentially inventory is being dumped to the grey market. This is something that I feel as though I'd already noticed and I wouldn't be surprised if it's true. Take the Jaeger Lecoultre Geophysic True Second. Not too popular a watch from what I can tell anyway, but at the same time I started to see them well available at multiple grey sellers. In fact one of them had two of them for sale at the same time. More recently I'm seeing the Geophysic Universal Time pop up at multiple places and at a hefty discount of about 40% as well. In both cases I'm assuming it's more than just multiple cases of buyer's remorse all of sudden. I know from what's been said here that a lot of JLCs drop in value, but considering that I'm seeing multiple pieces for sale at the same time and I feel as though they must be getting moved to the grey market.
Despite my two watch purchases I would actually welcome a correction from a "collector" standpoint. By that I mean that thus far I've only bought the watches with the intention of forever wearing them and with no plans to sell them any time soon. The same would apply to other watches that I'm interested in and so I would welcome a correction as I could then afford maybe a watch or two that I normally could not or get more of the pieces that I fancy. The question for me though is assuming we're in a correction period here or soon to be in one, how far do we think we'll see prices drop?
As regards Panerai, I can understand the frustration if one has been collecting them for a while. I was looking at one of the references that I'm interested and a seller had an Out of Range piece for sale. I'd never heard of that before. I would actually welcome it with a few watches from other manufacturers as I have noted I'm a big fan of tribute watches and vintage inspired pieces, some of whom I missed out on in recent years as I simply wasn't into the luxury end when they were released and they've subsequently sold out. If Panerais go through a big correction as Archie suggests, there are a couple that interest me. I love the gold hands contrasting with the steel case on a few of the references, though I have to say with the dials being so similar in a fair amount of cases that one might just do the trick. I would definitely be in for at least one though as I've been considering one anyway.
I'm honestly quite amazed that Archie seems to be known around the globe.
Coincidentally, Archie (not his real name, obviously) and I went to the same school, although he was a couple of years ahead of me. He was somewhat eccentric back then, too.
I had no idea that he had created an internet persona until I was reading a local news article about a lady who bought a LV bag from a duty free store and who considered that it was fake and so she took it to Archie for his opinion as he is - according to himself, at least - a Louis Vuitton expert. He pronounced it fake, apparently. I then did a Google search on him to see what he's been up to and discovered the internet world of "Archie Luxury". Truly bizarre.