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2016 Presidential Caucus and Primary Thread - Page 4

post #46 of 85
Pretty good write up about Cruz in college. Sheds some light on why people dislike him:

http://theslot.jezebel.com/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-and-track-down-a-ted-cr-1752337625
post #47 of 85
Quote:
Cruz lost multiple student government elections in college, among them class president and campus and community affairs chair; he was eventually elected to Princeton University Council, and was president of the Ivy Council. He also lost a bid for president of the debate panel in 1990, but subsequently held other leadership positions.

Clearly everyone hated him, and the media's not just cherry picking accounts to support their narrative based on, as far as I can see, the guy's unfortunate nose.
post #48 of 85

Eagle Forum (Phyllis Schafly) unloads on Rubio.

 

http://www.eagleforum.org/immigration/rubio-record.html

 

One of the linked articles:

 

Rubio and Graham – Two Peas in a Pod on Immigration, Foreign Policy and ObamaTrade

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/05/27/sens-rubio-and-graham-two-peas-in-a-pod-on-immigration-foreign-policy-and-obamatrade/

post #49 of 85

It is time for Christie to shine!  The only person who mentioned 9/11 more in debates/speeches was Juliani.

post #50 of 85

My prediction for NH tomorrow:

Democrats: Bernie cracks 50%.  Doesn't matter though.  Hillary wins the nomination after sweeping the South and super delegates.

 

Republicans:

  • Cruz pulls off another upset, and either barely beats Trump and Rubio or comes in a strong second behind trump.  Trump will have another meltdown about cheating.
  • Kaisich will come in fourth, and it will boost his polling in future states as the establishment and others try to jump on his ship with Rubio sinking
  • Christie will drop out
  • Bush will stay in and pin everything on SC
  • Carson will stay in until SC
  • Fiorina will drop out
post #51 of 85

What happens if Bloomberg runs?

post #52 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post
 

What happens if Bloomberg runs?


Bloomberg only runs if Bernie is the nominee.  Then it depends on the R candidate.  If Trump (It won't be), Bernie wins.  If not Trump, Republican wins.

post #53 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 


Bloomberg only runs if Bernie is the nominee.  Then it depends on the R candidate.  If Trump (It won't be), Bernie wins.  If not Trump, Republican wins.


Any realistic scenario where Bloomberg wins?

post #54 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


Any realistic scenario where Bloomberg wins?

No. He is widely to the left. His gun position alone means as an independent he can't win.

Perot had a better shot.
post #55 of 85
Thread Starter 
Perot topped out at 19% of the popular vote in 1992. I think you're right that Bloomberg wouldn't even get close to that. I fail to see what his appeal would be to large swaths of the country.

The electoral college is essentially rigged for a two party system. No way an independent ever wins the White House.
post #56 of 85
IDK. I've had a bunch of lefties in the last year tell me all of Perot's votes came from lefties and indies without an R in the bunch. If that is true, and Bloomberg could pull even more lefties, he could tip it for the Rs.
post #57 of 85
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

IDK. I've had a bunch of lefties in the last year tell me all of Perot's votes came from lefties and indies without an R in the bunch. If that is true, and Bloomberg could pull even more lefties, he could tip it for the Rs.


That's because they're idiots.

Quote:
A detailed analysis of voting demographics revealed that Perot's support drew heavily from across the political spectrum, with 20% of his votes coming from self-described liberals, 27% from self-described conservatives, and 53% coming from self-described moderates. Economically, however, the majority of Perot voters (57%) were middle class, earning between $15,000 and $49,000 annually, with the bulk of the remainder drawing from the upper middle class (29% earning more than $50,000 annually).[42] Exit polls also showed that Ross Perot drew 38% of his vote from Bush, and 38% of his vote from Clinton, while the rest of his voters would have stayed home had he not been on the ballot


http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/05/us/1992-elections-disappointment-analysis-eccentric-but-no-joke-perot-s-strong.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nil View Post

Perot topped out at 19% of the popular vote in 1992. I think you're right that Bloomberg wouldn't even get close to that. I fail to see what his appeal would be to large swaths of the country.

The electoral college is essentially rigged for a two party system. No way an independent ever wins the White House.



Perot was doing well for a good part of the race, and was in fact leading for a long time.  His best showing came in states that were strongly in one camp or the other, so my guess is he was either:

1. A protest vote

2. Appealed to a specific issue someone felt strongly about.  EG they were moderately conservative but were a single-issue voter anti-NAFTA.

post #58 of 85
Yeah, I'm sure he pulled the anti-NAFTA crowd.
post #59 of 85

No one else willing to put their predictions on record?

post #60 of 85
Thread Starter 
Anecdotal account: my uncle helped run the Perot campaign in a fairly major sized city back in 92. I recall visiting and having his memorabilia and what not all over the house that year. Now he's a hardcore teaparty Republican though that label seems less important this election cycle than the last few. I haven't seen him in awhile, but there's no doubt in my mind he's a Trump fan.

My predictions:

Bernie by at least 10. It's his backyard and Clinton hasn't done anything this week to stop his momentum.

I think Trump under performs but still wins. Kasich at 2 with Rubio almost tied with him at 3rd. Cruz comes in at 4th; I don't think he's really tried to campaign much in NH like he did in Iowa.
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