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Why Hillary will be the next POTUS - Page 56

post #826 of 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto View Post

The chicks I know voting for Trump range from like 20 - 60. Mostly poor whites (some blacks and browns) who don't want illegals in California. Hillary's book really tanked though. I know it isn't a a real indicator, but you would think it would of sold more given her "career."

Trump has worse favorability ratings than Hillary in pretty much every demographic group (excepting rural whites and white men), but especially women. He's at like 70% unfavorable. Hillary isn't great, but she's head and shoulders ahead of Trump.

Oddly enough, she's +20% among women against Bernie. Surprising. She gets killed among women 18-29 though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

The "slight majority of Democrats" includes blacks, of course. They're a third to half or more of Democrat voters in many states.

Sure. But even excluding blacks, she'd be slightly ahead among typical voters. Bernie is as close as he is because he's bringing out people who don't usually vote in the primaries.
Quote:
I can't read minds, of course, but it seems really obvious why the "middle class socialism" message of Sanders doesn't appeal to certain groups.

I, for one, am quite enthusiastic about paying 50% more taxes.
post #827 of 3334
Hillary is at +50%, Trump at +60%
they have by far highest unfavourable in both parties, that's kinda of funny since they boh in lead xD
post #828 of 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by wojt View Post

Hillary is at +50%, Trump at +60%
they have by far highest unfavourable in both parties, that's kinda of funny since they boh in lead xD

I seem to recall that Hillary's unfavorability ratings are terrible when you include the general public but not quite as bad among likely Democratic voters.

Trump is pretty much terrible with everyone, which explains his apparent cap in support even in the Republican primary. It's not typical for the front runner to hit a firm ceiling at <50% support. He should be pulling ahead at this point, not trailing off. We'll see how that goes in the upcoming East Coast states.
post #829 of 3334
Right now sure, but if he gets nomination his tone will change and IF he wins debates with Hillary or say another terrorist attack in Paris happens things will change very quickly. If it was Obama he would probably lose anyway but it's Hillary, highest unfavourables of any (D) in last 30 years, he can beat her...It''s not like ratings now are final, we have months to election.
post #830 of 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Sure. But even excluding blacks, she'd be slightly ahead among typical voters. Bernie is as close as he is because he's bringing out people who don't usually vote in the primaries.

I take it you're not looking at the latest national polls which show them basically tied overall. Admittedly those polls include people who identify as independent rather Democrats, so I guess what you've said is possible. But I think it's unlikely.
Quote:
I, for one, am quite enthusiastic about paying 50% more taxes.

That's probably the least likely reason there is. The Democrats are a coalition of rent seekers. They're all Democrats because they agree there should be a bigger pie for them to split up.
post #831 of 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by wojt View Post

Right now sure, but if he gets nomination his tone will change
What are you basing this supposition on?

Trump being Trump is the whole draw for his supporters. He's calculated in a lot of ways, but his "I'm going to be an asshole to everyone who I think deserves it" shtick is baked into his personality pretty firmly. I don't think he can just turn it off. He couldn't restrain himself from making idiotic jabs at Cruz's wife even while trying to protect being the frontrunner.
Quote:
It''s not like ratings now are final, we have months to election.

Which is equally true for Hillary. Why are you assuming Trump's the one that is going to benefit from it? Aside from Hillary getting indicted, I would say it's a lot more likely that Trump will continue to say absurd and abrasive things and turn off increasingly large sections of the electorate, like he's been doing for the last month. We're talking about about seven months of Trump here, that's a LOT of Trump and a lot of time for his horribleness to sink in with more people. Hillary is a known quantity, she's not likely to drive away people who don't already dislike her.
post #832 of 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

I take it you're not looking at the latest national polls which show them basically tied overall. Admittedly those polls include people who identify as independent rather Democrats, so I guess what you've said is possible. But I think it's unlikely.
Tied on what metric? I pulled up some favorability surveys from March and Hillary is ahead of Trump on almost every front. She's still historically bad, but Trump is even worse.

Something like 24% of Democrats would be disappointed if she was nominated, but an actual majority of Republicans would be disappointed if Trump was.
Quote:
That's probably the least likely reason there is. The Democrats are a coalition of rent seekers. They're all Democrats because they agree there should be a bigger pie for them to split up.

That's certainly a glib interpretation.
post #833 of 3334
The comment I was addressing was pretty clearly about Clinton and Sanders rather than Clinton and Trump.

The latest polls show them (Clinton and Sanders) more or less tied.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

McClatchy/Marist 3/29 - 3/31 497 RV 4.4 47 49 Sanders +2
IBD/TIPP 3/28 - 4/2 388 RV 5.1 45 44 Clinton +1

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/a-sanders-surge-in-polling-if-not-delegates/477198/
Quote:
Hillary Clinton may have amassed a nearly insurmountable lead in delegates, but rank-and-file Democrats are now virtually split between her and Bernie Sanders over which candidate should be their party’s presidential nominee, according to a new PRRI / The Atlantic poll.

Sanders had the support of 47 percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters while Clinton had 46 percent—a narrow gap that fell within the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error.
post #834 of 3334
I got the Trump/Sanders conversation threads crossed up.

The Atlantic article seems to reinforce what I was trying to say, that Sanders is winning among people who don't usually vote in the Democratic primaries but are coming out this year.
Quote:
Democrats are sharply divided by age and by party loyalty. Sanders is strongly preferred by younger voters, both women and men, while Clinton does better with older voters and those who closely identify with the Democratic Party. Sanders, by contrast, runs strong among weaker partisans and independents—a finding that has also been reflected in exit polls taken after people have already cast their votes.

Hillary is seriously limping towards the finish line. It's still going to be hard for her to lose, but coming into the convention with a bare majority and a losing streak is not going to be good for her. If she was running in any other year, I'd assume she would be screwed in the general.
post #835 of 3334

Bill Clinton stands up to BLM protesters. What's the chances that Hillary or Bernie would?

It seems like HRC's campaign is pretty much keeping Bill under wraps, and that's a shame.
post #836 of 3334
I don't think she has any choice. I think there are three reasons why he doesn't have a higher profile: First, his stature, likeability diminishes her; in contrast she is shrill and perceived to be an incompetent coat tail rider, which she is. Second, he tends to openly antagonize Obama, which is potentially problematic for Hillary. Third, if he talks about/reminds voters of his presidential record, that makes him look like Barry Goldwater compared to Hillary, so the idea of 'if you liked me, you'll like her' doesn't hold. It's fascinating to watch and would be really entertaining if I didn't feel like Spock watching his planet implode.
post #837 of 3334
Hilly is not as "good" a speaker as Billy,

Why Did Congo Offer Clinton $650,000 For Two Pics And A Speech?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardminiter/2016/04/17/why-did-congo-offer-clinton-650000-for-two-pics-and-a-speech/#74a18c843f11

What sleazy bastards they are.
post #838 of 3334
That article is pretty bad. It introduces something the Clintons didn't do, then talks about unabashed corruption in an African state, then asks hyper-speculative questions trying to link the former to the latter. I'm sure there's plenty of dirt to dig up, but this guy is shoveling in a pile of something else
post #839 of 3334
I wonder if America would vote Obama another 4 years if they could with these current crop of candidates. Bloomberg, and Romney are probably regretting not running right now.
post #840 of 3334
Trump would eviscerate romney just like he did with every other establishment candidate, someone like Ben Carson would have a chance if they didn't fall asleep at the debates, basically you need an outsider this year or at least someone seen as an outsider.
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