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Why Hillary will be the next POTUS - Page 149

post #2221 of 3333
terrorists in Oklahoma City

post #2222 of 3333
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/10/05/hillary-campaign-hosts-fundraiser-wests-rape-capital/

"The Gatestone Institute notes: “Forty years after the Swedish parliament unanimously decided to change the formerly homogenous Sweden into a multicultural country, violent crime has increased by 300% and rapes by 1,472%. Sweden is now number two on the list of rape countries, surpassed only by Lesotho in Southern Africa”.

Progressives enlightening Sweden, as usual. They started importing in large numbers from N Africa and the ME in the 70's. Unfortunately we can't draw any conclusions yet or learn from their experiment, so I'm told.
post #2223 of 3333
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/10/05/hillary-campaign-hosts-fundraiser-wests-rape-capital/

"The Gatestone Institute notes: “Forty years after the Swedish parliament unanimously decided to change the formerly homogenous Sweden into a multicultural country, violent crime has increased by 300% and rapes by 1,472%. Sweden is now number two on the list of rape countries, surpassed only by Lesotho in Southern Africa”.

Progressives enlightening Sweden, as usual. They started importing in large numbers from N Africa and the ME in the 70's. Unfortunately we can't draw any conclusions yet or learn from their experiment, so I'm told.

 


And what does the research here tell us about immigration?  What do we see in the United States?

Quote:
 Butcher and Piehl examine the incarceration rates for men aged 18-40 in the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses.  In each year immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than natives with the gap widening each decade.  By 2000, immigrants have incarceration rates that are one-fifth those of the native-born.  Butcher and Piehl wrote another paper focusing on immigrant incarceration in California by looking at both property and violent crimes by city.  Between years 2000 and 2005, California cities with large inflows of recent immigrants tended have lower violent crimes rates and the findings are statistically significant.  During the same time period, there is no statistically significant relationship between immigration and property crime.   
 
...
 
[Ewing, Martinez, and Rumbaut] continue by focusing on immigrant incarceration rates by country of origin in the 2010 Census.  Less educated young Mexican, Salvadoran, and Guatemalan men (poorly educated young men are most likely to be incarcerated) make up the bulk of the unlawful immigrant population but have significantly lower incarceration rates than native-born men without a high-school diploma.  In 2010, 10.7 percent of native-born men aged 18-39 without a high school degree were incarcerated compared to 2.8 percent of Mexican immigrants and 1.7 percent of Guatemalan and Salvadoran immigrants.
 
...
 
Ousey and Kubrin looked at 159 cities at three dates between 1980 and 2000 and found that crime rates and levels of immigration are not correlated.  They conclude that “[v]iolent crime is not a deleterious consequence of increased immigration.”  Martinez looked at 111 U.S. cities with at least 5,000 Hispanics and found no statistically significant findings.  Reid et al. looked at a sample of 150 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and found that levels of recent immigration had a statistically significant negative effect on homicide rates but no effect on property crime rates.  They wrote, “[i]t appears that anti-immigrant sentiments that view immigrants as crime prone are not only inaccurate at the micro-level, they are also inaccurate at the macro-level … increased immigration may actually be beneficial in terms of lessening some types of crimes.”  Wadsworth found that cities with greater growth in immigrant or new immigrant populations between 1990 and 2000 tended to have steeper decreases in homicide and robbery rates. 



http://www.cato.org/blog/immigration-crime-what-research-says

 

Quote:

 A new report from the Immigration Policy Center notes that while the illegal immigrant population in the U.S. more than tripled between 1990 and 2013 to more than 11.2 million, “FBI data indicate that the violent crime rate declined 48%—which included falling rates of aggravated assault, robbery, rape, and murder. Likewise, the property crime rate fell 41%, including declining rates of motor vehicle theft, larceny/robbery, and burglary.”

 

A separate IPC paper from 2007 explains that this is not a function of well-behaved high-skilled immigrants from India and China offsetting misdeeds of Latin American newcomers. The data show that “for every ethnic group without exception, incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants,” according to the report. “This holds true especially for the Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans who make up the bulk of the undocumented population.”

 

-Mr. Riley, a Manhattan Institute senior fellow and Journal contributor, is the author of “Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed” (Encounter Books, 2014).

Not exactly a bleeding heart liberal...

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mythical-connection-between-immigrants-and-crime-1436916798

 

So to conclude, at a macro level, immigration (legal and illegal) is up, but crime is down.  At a more granular level, immigrants commit less crime than the native born population as a whole and far less than a native born population that is similar to them demographically.

post #2224 of 3333
Very clever, comparing institutionalization rates and claiming they represent crime rates. Immigrants are likely to be deported rather than incarcerated (or, more accurately, released several times then finally incarcerated after committing several serious crimes).
post #2225 of 3333
The argument is mute in a debate about illegal immigration. I don't care if a100% of illegal immigrants never commit any serious crimes. They bring so many other systemic problems to US that their criminality is a note on the margins of economic devastation they cause.
post #2226 of 3333

Say again I didn't hear that.

post #2227 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

Very clever, comparing institutionalization rates and claiming they represent crime rates. Immigrants are likely to be deported rather than incarcerated (or, more accurately, released several times then finally incarcerated after committing several serious crimes).


Some of the numbers are around incarceration numbers, but go to the links and look at all the research shown there are plenty of other data points.  But neither of the articles I linked are from lefty sources - quite the opposite in fact.

post #2228 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

The argument is mute in a debate about illegal immigration. I don't care if a100% of illegal immigrants never commit any serious crimes. They bring so many other systemic problems to US that their criminality is a note on the margins of economic devastation they cause.


Just like the problems Yankees like me bring with them as they move  to the South.

post #2229 of 3333
I didn't say they were unbelievable because of the politics of the source. Anyway, the other set of data seems to be comparing the crime rates of cities with larger numbers of immigrants and then saying that violent crime rates seem to go down. First of all, they're lumping all immigrants together, which is a red herring. No one is against immigration per se, just immigrants from certain places.

And, yeah, you could take just about anyone in the world and dump them into American cities and it would make the violent crime rates go down, but that's not because the immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than a median American, it's because the violent crime in our cities is largely perpetrated by a specific native demographic and diluting its share of the population reduces crime rates even if it's with people who are more criminal than the median American. But that doesn't make us safer; it just makes the statistics look better.

The studies also fail to account for the immigrants' "American" kids.
post #2230 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

I didn't say they were unbelievable because of the politics of the source. Anyway, the other set of data seems to be comparing the crime rates of cities with larger numbers of immigrants and then saying that violent crime rates seem to go down. First of all, they're lumping all immigrants together, which is a red herring. No one is against immigration per se, just immigrants from certain places.

And, yeah, you could take just about anyone in the world and dump them into American cities and it would make the violent crime rates go down, but that's not because the immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than a median American, it's because the violent crime in our cities is largely perpetrated by a specific native demographic and diluting its share of the population reduces crime rates even if it's with people who are more criminal than the median American. But that doesn't make us safer; it just makes the statistics look better.

The studies also fail to account for the immigrants' "American" kids.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

The argument is mute in a debate about illegal immigration. I don't care if a100% of illegal immigrants never commit any serious crimes. They bring so many other systemic problems to US that their criminality is a note on the margins of economic devastation they cause.

Are they "American" kids you're referring to ones born in the States, or born overseas and brought here as kids?
post #2231 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

I didn't say they were unbelievable because of the politics of the source. Anyway, the other set of data seems to be comparing the crime rates of cities with larger numbers of immigrants and then saying that violent crime rates seem to go down. First of all, they're lumping all immigrants together, which is a red herring. No one is against immigration per se, just immigrants from certain places.

And, yeah, you could take just about anyone in the world and dump them into American cities and it would make the violent crime rates go down, but that's not because the immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than a median American, it's because the violent crime in our cities is largely perpetrated by a specific native demographic and diluting its share of the population reduces crime rates even if it's with people who are more criminal than the median American. But that doesn't make us safer; it just makes the statistics look better.

The studies also fail to account for the immigrants' "American" kids.


Except, I've posted this before:

FT_13.10.07_Prevalence-of-Crime

 

Immigrants are far less likely to commit crime.  Their children are slightly less likely to commit crime than the "native-born." 

 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/10/15/crime-rises-among-second-generation-immigrants-as-they-assimilate/

post #2232 of 3333
Clearly, I was referring to the ones who aren't considered immigrants, i.e., the ones who are born here. Suffice to say I'm not a big fan of birthright citizenship.
post #2233 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


Except, I've posted this before:

FT_13.10.07_Prevalence-of-Crime


Immigrants are far less likely to commit crime.  Their children are slightly less likely to commit crime than the "native-born." 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/10/15/crime-rises-among-second-generation-immigrants-as-they-assimilate/

In addition to the concerns I raised earlier about averages versus medians, and immigrants as a whole versus certain groups, which you didn't address, that chart seems to be based on a survey of children, and it lumps downloading MP3s in with murder.
post #2234 of 3333
Thread Starter 
Sweet! I am far more unlikely to be involved in a crime this month that most of you!
post #2235 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Sweet! I am far more unlikely to be involved in a crime this month that most of you!


Just commit one, but you're far more likely to apologize though.

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