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Why Hillary will be the next POTUS - Page 80

post #1186 of 3333
re: the previous page. Hillary isn't going to win. Terrorism plus cop killing will beat her race baiting.
post #1187 of 3333
The electoral math is very difficult for any Republican, much less one with the negatives of Trump. Eighteen states (including Pennsylvania) and the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in the last six elections. If Hillary holds these states and DC, she's at 242 electoral votes. The voters in Virginia elected Kaine governor and senator, so let's put Virginia (13 electoral votes) in Hillary's column as well. She's now at 255 electoral votes. If she wins Florida (29 electoral votes) or Ohio (18 electoral votes), both of which voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, she's the next President. Even if she loses both states, she is elected if she wins North Carolina (15 electoral votes), which voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012. So Trump has to hold all the traditionally Republican states and sweep the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina to win. Awfully tough row to hoe.
post #1188 of 3333
The politics focused speculation on who is going to win (especially with random individuals like those of us on the forums) are pretty much just referendums on personal bias. Imagine, all the pro-Trump people think Trump is going to win. The analytical approaches tend to be a lot more reliable, and they're still pointing towards a probable Hillary victory.

As of the end of the Republican convention, the usual polling aggregates had the odds at something like 60/40 for Hillary to win. It's probably closer to 50/50 now, but we'll have to see how the Democratic convention and this DNC scandal shake out. A lot of Bernie bros are still upset, and got moreso with the DNC email thing, but strong speeches from Bernie and Warren could shake a good number of them back into the (D) column.
post #1189 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

A lot of Bernie bros are still upset, and got moreso with the DNC email thing, but strong speeches from Bernie and Warren could shake a good number of them back into the (D) column.

 

How humiliating it will be for Bernie to castrate himself on national TV.

post #1190 of 3333
Thread Starter 
I don't think Trump even carries all the states that typically go red. Indies skew conservative, and are the real action at determining who wins in many states, but I think they're either going to stay home or split their vote with Clinton. And if anyone thinks I'm predicting a Clinton victory as I have a bias for her...well...
post #1191 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

I don't think Trump even carries all the states that typically go red. Indies skew conservative, and are the real action at determining who wins in many states, but I think they're either going to stay home or split their vote with Clinton. And if anyone thinks I'm predicting a Clinton victory as I have a bias for her...well...

But Michael Moore says Trump will win because most Americans aren't as smart as him (Moore).
post #1192 of 3333
oh God I saw that, new level of obnoxiousness
post #1193 of 3333
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

But Michael Moore says Trump will win because most Americans aren't as smart as him (Moore).

It's hard to be Michael some days.
post #1194 of 3333
I am surprised fatso is still alive. He must have the best physicians money can buy.
post #1195 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto View Post

I am surprised fatso is still alive. He must have the best physicians money can buy.

He and George RR Martin are workout buds, I think.
post #1196 of 3333
sucks that GRRM will probably eat himself to death before he finishes the song of ice and fire
post #1197 of 3333
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto View Post

I am surprised fatso is still alive. He must have the best physicians money can buy.

He gets 1% medical care. Pontificating about how great socialism is, and how much capitalism, guns, and Bush sucks really pays well.
post #1198 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hombre Secreto View Post

I am surprised fatso is still alive. He must have the best physicians money can buy.

 

He goes to Cuba for all his medical needs.

post #1199 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

He goes to Cuba for all his medical needs.



post #1200 of 3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post




I think he eats more than one of those in a sitting.  That's how he keeps his cherub like demeanor.

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