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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 64

post #946 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Is this a joke? The rebels are the buffer between the regime and ISIS. Assad has bombed ISIS least of any areas in Syria. The only notable strikes were those in Raqqa when the coalition started its campaign. Those strikes by the way targeted civilian areas.

So how would not bombing the rebels or IS help him, exactly?
post #947 of 2692
^ no he bombed hasaka and palmyra when they attached them as well. And isis in qalamoun.

Secondly i dont make a distinction between isis and the rebels (which include alqaeda). Assad has been fighting a long war with limited resources and funding by russia and iran. And very limited human resources. Of course hes going to be strategic about the threats he targets. Its why he survived and its why hezballah survived in 2006. Its a long war of attrition.

Focusing on the other rebels when he did was one of the main strategical victories of assad in this war.
post #948 of 2692
Alan, thank you for sensible and insightful posts.
post #949 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

^ no he bombed hasaka and palmyra when they attached them as well. And isis in qalamoun.

Secondly i dont make a distinction between isis and the rebels (which include alqaeda). Assad has been fighting a long war with limited resources and funding by russia and iran. And very limited human resources. Of course hes going to be strategic about the threats he targets. Its why he survived and its why hezballah survived in 2006. Its a long war of attrition.

Focusing on the other rebels when he did was one of the main strategical victories of assad in this war.


How can you so easily brush aside the mass killing, torturing, and gassing of civilians? This kind of attitude is part of the reason the Levant is so royally fucked up right now. You say, hey, he's just killing terrorists. Just like Rab3a was just terrorists being killed. Give me a fucking break. 

 

I understand your position, Alan, I do. But objectively, rationally, you have to look at the regime and see the same monster il Qa'ida and Ahrar.

post #950 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post

Have you been brainwashed are what?
If you can go back on holiday, you are not a refugee, it's as simple as that, which the person interviewed clearly states he can, so where he comes from is clearly not a danger zone.

Dude, you're taking a quote by one individual from a specific article and deciding it means refugees can and will go back home on holidays and everything is peachy. I can find you a quote by Varg Vikernes saying your people are from space if you want. It will prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that Scandis think they are from space and what is more, that they really are.
post #951 of 2692
Id like to read more about the various anti-Assad rebel groups, other than ISIS, (who I think dont waste much energy vs Assad.) Yes, the Pentagon identified a laughable oversized platoon of guys who "are not extremists" but I do not take this to mean all the other groups [/I]are[/I] therefore islamic extremists. Obv religion can be a powerful rallying call for many folks over there.

Also, Alan raises some great points in favor of the "Assad as secular bulwark" argument and - while I dont dispute Saudi and other arab sunni donor $ - I remain skeptical they are the puppet masters of the rebels in the civil war. Put another way, patronage does not automatically entail total obedience.

Rather, it seems to me that a repressive despot representing 10% of the population on religo-ethnic grounds will inevitably face armed dissent, donors or no donors. (Perhaps he should have built more hospitals and schools instead of torture chambers to forestall this eventuality, I dunno.)

ie Assad finally brought war on to himself via years of brutality and the Arab Spring was a contextual thing for the rebels that perhaps emboldened them further *vs* some secret longstanding Saudi (and w/e other Sunni Arabs) plan to knock Assad out of power which they finally flipped the switch on as Alan suggests.
post #952 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirReveller View Post

Id like to read more about the various anti-Assad rebel groups, other than ISIS, (who I think dont waste much energy vs Assad.) Yes, the Pentagon identified a laughable oversized platoon of guys who "are not extremists" but I do not take this to mean all the other groups [/I]are[/I] therefore islamic extremists. Obv religion can be a powerful rallying call for many folks over there.

Also, Alan raises some great points in favor of the "Assad as secular bulwark" argument and - while I dont dispute Saudi and other arab sunni donor $ - I remain skeptical they are the puppet masters of the rebels in the civil war. Put another way, patronage does not automatically entail total obedience.

Rather, it seems to me that a repressive despot representing 10% of the population on religo-ethnic grounds will inevitably face armed dissent, donors or no donors. (Perhaps he should have built more hospitals and schools instead of torture chambers to forestall this eventuality, I dunno.)

ie Assad finally brought war on to himself via years of brutality and the Arab Spring was a contextual thing for the rebels that perhaps emboldened them further *vs* some secret longstanding Saudi (and w/e other Sunni Arabs) plan to knock Assad out of power which they finally flipped the switch on as Alan suggests.


Here is a quick rundown in order of importance (strength):

 

-Ahrar ash-Sham: Salafi Jihadi, mostly Syrian, think al-Qa'ida without the global aspirations.

-YPG: Kurdish, Leftist, Atheistish, works directly with the US, US wary because of ties with PKK.

-Jabhet an-Nusra: al-Qa'ida. Nothing else to say. Run by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.

-Jeysh al-Islaam: Salafi Jihadi, vehemently anti-al-Qa'ida, run by an egomaniacal Syrian-born but Saudi-sired crazy person called Zahran 'Alloush. He is the only person in Ghouta to have gained weight over the last 4 years. It is widely believed that he was released by Assad for the purposes of raising a Salafi army to make Assad look like the better alternative.

-Southern Front: "FSA" rebels in the South. 

 

Jeysh al-Fatah: Ahrar, Nusra, and a couple other batshit crazy groups, I'm looking at you Jund al-Aqsa.

Jeysh ash-Shaam: Jeysh al-Islaam + Jeysh ar-Rahman, this is just forming there aren't many details.

 

There are lots of other groups but these are the most important on the rebel side. 

 

And if you know one opposition individual it should be Sheikh Abdullah Muhammad al-Muhaysini. This guy is a total fucking douchebag and I don't know why he hasn't been zapped yet. 

post #953 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post


Here is a quick rundown in order of importance (strength):

-Ahrar ash-Sham: Salafi Jihadi, mostly Syrian, think al-Qa'ida without the global aspirations.
-YPG: Kurdish, Leftist, Atheistish, works directly with the US, US wary because of ties with PKK.
-Jabhet an-Nusra: al-Qa'ida. Nothing else to say. Run by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.
-Jaysh al-Islaam: Salafi Jihadi, vehemently anti-al-Qa'ida, run by an egomaniacal Syrian-born but Saudi-sired crazy person called Zahran 'Alloush. He is the only person in Ghouta to have gained weight over the last 4 years. It is widely believed that he was released by Assad for the purposes of raising a Salafi army to make Assad look like the better alternative.
-Southern Front: "FSA" rebels in the South. 

Jeysh al-Fatah: Ahrar, Nusra, and a couple other batshit crazy groups, I'm looking at you Jund al-Aqsa.
Jeysh ash-Shaam: Jeysh al-Islaam + Jeysh ar-Rahman, this is just forming there aren't many details.

There are lots of other groups but these are the most important on the rebel side. 

And if you know one opposition individual it should be Sheikh Abdullah Muhammad al-Muhaysini. This guy is a total fucking douchebag and I don't know why he hasn't been zapped yet. 

The way you describe them, only the YPG and maybe the southern front are worth backing.. With the rest, I kinda have to agree with allan, and lump them together as one group. And none, except the YPG can be trusted enough NOT to do an ethnic cleansing when the common enemy Assad is gone..
post #954 of 2692
Thread Starter 

The YPG is problematic for many reasons. For one, they are not really fighting the regime. The regime withdrew from Kurdish areas very early on and they have sort of an understanding. Although, they have not given back any of the ground they gained in Hasake and I don't think they plan on it. 

 

Second, they are not Arab and they are reluctant to annex Arab towns, leaving that to Liwa Thuwaar ar-Raqqa. Kurds are concentrated far away from Damascus and are currently concerned with Nusra and ISIS.

 

Third, they are closely affiliated with the PKK (Kurdistan Worker's Party) and this really makes Turkey squirm. 

post #955 of 2692
There's apparently a meeting going on in Russia at the moment about reaching a solution.

Assad has also said that he has lost control of 2/3 of the country, so NATO can enter Syria, as he is not loosing any sovereignty, but it seems like Russia has beat them to it.

A danish politician of Syrian descent suggested today, that NATO should create a sort of Green zone like they did in Bagdad, so there's a place for people to be without any fighting.
post #956 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post
 


Here is a quick rundown in order of importance (strength):

 

-Ahrar ash-Sham: Salafi Jihadi, mostly Syrian, think al-Qa'ida without the global aspirations.

-YPG: Kurdish, Leftist, Atheistish, works directly with the US, US wary because of ties with PKK.

-Jabhet an-Nusra: al-Qa'ida. Nothing else to say. Run by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.

-Jeysh al-Islaam: Salafi Jihadi, vehemently anti-al-Qa'ida, run by an egomaniacal Syrian-born but Saudi-sired crazy person called Zahran 'Alloush. He is the only person in Ghouta to have gained weight over the last 4 years. It is widely believed that he was released by Assad for the purposes of raising a Salafi army to make Assad look like the better alternative.

-Southern Front: "FSA" rebels in the South. 

 

Jeysh al-Fatah: Ahrar, Nusra, and a couple other batshit crazy groups, I'm looking at you Jund al-Aqsa.

Jeysh ash-Shaam: Jeysh al-Islaam + Jeysh ar-Rahman, this is just forming there aren't many details.

 

There are lots of other groups but these are the most important on the rebel side. 

 

And if you know one opposition individual it should be Sheikh Abdullah Muhammad al-Muhaysini. This guy is a total fucking douchebag and I don't know why he hasn't been zapped yet. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE

post #957 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Excuse me, I meant Faylaq ar-Rahman not Jeysh ar-Rahman. 

post #958 of 2692
Thread Starter 


Funny that you post this, a lot of people sarcastically refer to The Nusra Front (Jabhet an-Nusra) as Jabhet al-Yahud (The Front of the Jews). 

post #959 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Meanwhile in Turkey... people are saying as many as 178 HDP offices were attacked tonight. Smells like coordination to me. 

post #960 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Meanwhile in Turkey... people are saying as many as 178 HDP offices were attacked tonight. Smells like coordination to me. 
And some news sources say that turkey now has boots on the ground in Iraq against the Kurds..
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