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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 60

post #886 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirReveller View Post

ditched Maliki allowing the alienation of the Sunnis (ISIS!)

 

wat. You know Maliki is enemy number 1 according to angry Iraqi Sunnis, right? 

post #887 of 2698
yeah ditched as in never spoke w or supported him
post #888 of 2698
Thread Starter 
I think that is a mischaracterization and shifts blame from Maliki to Obama which is unfair.
post #889 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

If I were one of you yourapeans I would get some money together to fund some Syrian restaurants. Nobody makes fried chicken better than the Syrians. 
Fried chicken? I think you are confusing Europe with American South, but it is understandable.
post #890 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

I think that is a mischaracterization and shifts blame from Maliki to Obama which is unfair.

TBH this is mostly from a fantastic Frontline episode where it showed how W had a weekly call w Maliki to help him understand parliamentary compromise eg other than ordering political rivals arrested and other basics of western-style democratic process.

It then showed how Obama basically never even conferred with Maliki...some continued guidance (ie not even mentorship) may have gone a long way!
post #891 of 2698
Thread Starter 
No. Maliki was a lost cause from the beginning. Bush advising Maliki is the dumb leading the blind.
post #892 of 2698
Thread Starter 

Anywho...

 

A new coalition is being formed called Jaysh al-Sham. No other details but rumors are that it could be Jaysh al-Islam and Faylaq al-Rahman. Supposedly the announcement is coinciding with a new offensive in Dar3a. 

 

Sounds like a southern Jaysh al-Fath to me. 

post #893 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

No. Maliki was a lost cause from the beginning. Bush advising Maliki is the dumb leading the blind.

I dont think it was preordained that hed try to have the Sunni VP arrested and executed. Certainly a "very poor" working relationship with the bloc that benefited from Saddam's rule was probably inevitable - given the shitkicking the Shia got for decades and the revenge tribal mentality over there - but not necc. the Sunnis' complete alienation from government.

I def dont think hed have tried it if the US (Obama) had at least tried to maintain some serious diplomatic influence, troops or no troops.

Perhaps he was in bed w Iran from the start tho. Have to read more here.

Watch the Frontline regardless. "Losing Iraq". On 'flix. Excellent.
post #894 of 2698
Lol @ arab countries who talk about the syrian people and its welfare yet didnt even take in one refugee....

And Europe can whine all it wants and taking in refugees should never be a requirement, but dont go against Assad and pour millions of dollars into supporting its opposition for years then whine when shit hits the fan. Noone wants you to take refugees, just dont meddle in their countries affairs and support terrorist groups.

All the regime areas are as good as it will get for Syria for a long time, what people dont realize is you cant parachute democracy at will. If Assad goes syria will be the realm of reinvented warlords, terrorists, and western puppets with no influence whatsoever, and theyll make Syria another Libya.
post #895 of 2698
Libya vs Syria: at this point libya is probably safer
post #896 of 2698
This is eye opening.
LEAD Technologies Inc. V1.01
post #897 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Lol

 

Alan c'mon man you have to know by now that the number 1 terrorist in Syria is Bashar al-Assad. I don't care how "secular" he is. He has killed more civilians than any of the other terrorists combined. 

post #898 of 2698
http://www.b.dk/nationalt/det-vigtigste-er-at-komme-vaek-fra-danmark-hurtigst-muligt



Quote:
Every day hundreds of refugees by train at Copenhagen Central Station to travel urgently to Sweden and Norway to seek asylum. Their biggest fear: being caught and forced to stay in Denmark. Berlingske met three of them.

30-year-old Mohammad smile relieved. There is no police on the track and not on the platform, so there is a good chance that the plan works: As soon as possible to obtain three-way tickets to Stockholm, he saw little brother Ibrahim and their friend Hussein to continue their escape from the Syrian civil war to Sweden.

The time is 12:15 Sunday dinner and the three Syrians are equally increased by train from Hamburg with approximately 80 to 100 other refugees like them going out carefully with anxious eyes and a single bag in hand, containing their few possessions. More than half of the passengers who disembark, has clearly non-Western appearance.

"When does the train to Stockholm - it is soon, right?" Asks Mohammad me and the resident Arab man who helps them to move on. "The most important is to get as quickly as possible away from Denmark. '

It's only 12 hours before Inger Noise's controversial refugee ads will be published in Lebanese newspapers to send a signal that Denmark is not 'an attractive country "to seek asylum in. And just 12 hours before the police catch 170 refugees in the train at Rødbyhavn and the whole of Denmark on the other end to discuss how we can close the borders to the south, so that the country does not become overrun by illegal immigrants from Germany.

But if you believe the three men on the Copenhagen Station, Denmark has nothing to be afraid of. Every day for the last many months, hundreds of refugees left the train in Copenhagen without either the police or the DSB has taken more notice of it. And the reason is clear:

"We would not be here. We know that the rules are very difficult and that we are not welcome. We will continue to Sweden, "says Mohammad Shaban.

The three Syrians have been underway for 12 days from Syria by boat across Turkey through Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary. Like thousands of other refugees were caught at the railway station in Budapest last week, and since there were prospects to move on from there by train, they paid 600 euros for a trafficker, as they waited for two days in a forest near the Danube river, before he showed up to drive them by car to Germany.

From here they have even taken a train from Hamburg to Copenhagen Central Station, from which they meet with an acquaintance of an acquaintance who helps them to buy train tickets at the station and forwards them to the Øresund train - without payment.

So lucky is far from all the refugees. Next to us on the platform, we hear an Iraqi man shouting 'After me in a series'. Behind him going about 25 because anxious Iraqis. He is a trafficker and has taken a good payment to be Iraqis 'travel guide'.

"Let us pull slightly away," said the resident helps by Berlingske followed. It's best not to attract too much attention by standing in for large groups.

The three syreres escape has accrued 25,000 kr. All inclusive per. person. Ibrahim opens his belt bag to show memories. At the bottom is a change from Turkey, Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and now Denmark. Every time they pay in euros, and every time they get pennies back into the local currency.

Sweden is the best
Actually, they had been recommended to seek asylum in Germany because the country has announced that they give all Syrians residence. But because of the great boom of the last week's case processing times been so long that Germany is no longer 'number one' on the wish list. Moreover, several of them friends and networks in Sweden.

Most importantly, however, it is not ending up in Denmark.

"If the police catch us and will take our fingerprints will we deny or run away. We will not be here, "said Ibrahim.

I do not misunderstand them, says Hussein. They are confident that Denmark is a lovely country - for Danes. People are 'a hundred times more beautiful than in Germany' and everything looks peaceful out.

"But in Sweden we can get permanent residence, so that we can return and visit family, and we work so that we can rebuild our lives. We just want to have stability, "he said.

In Denmark it is not known when someone changes the rules for the worse again.

Before they board the train, engage themselves in the resident assistant's Internet, so they can call their family and say that they made it. About ten minutes goes a train to Malmö and then on to Stockholm. None of them have eaten in the last two days, but it does not say, for now they are close to the target.

They jump into the Oresund trains. Still no police. They are relieved, and almost promotion.

If they can go back and visit their families, they are not refugees. I know people who fled from Saddam, who haven't been back in 20 years and never will go back.
post #899 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post

http://www.b.dk/nationalt/det-vigtigste-er-at-komme-vaek-fra-danmark-hurtigst-muligt
If they can go back and visit their families, they are not refugees. I know people who fled from Saddam, who haven't been back in 20 years and never will go back.


And I know Syrians who can never go back to Syria as long as any part of the regime is around. What is your point? 

post #900 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Alan c'mon man you have to know by now that the number 1 terrorist in Syria is Bashar al-Assad. I don't care how "secular" he is. He has killed more civilians than any of the other terrorists combined. 

The argument of a f*cked up warlord-ridden failed state of little religo-ethnic militia enclaves featuring violence "worse than today" should Assad's regime perish has merit. However, certainly with the Arab Sunnis at 60% of the country some kind of decently-sized Sunni nation state could eventually be achieved? Maybe all the different feuding and morphing rebel factions and the further messiness of ISIS make this unrealistic.

Further I am skeptical the Orthodox Christians and Ismaili and Turkmen - and def the Alawites as the obv ones to face serious "revenge" at a later date - and so forth other little religo-ethnicities at 3/4/5% of the population would fare very well under this balkanization scenario. Obv pluralism is not the ME's strong suit (altho Kuwait is supposedly very proud of its record here).

That being said these groups including the huge Arab Sunni bloc are getting such a sh*tkicking (or streaming out of the country in massive volume as weve seen) today that I dont know if "some form of the LIbya scenario" could possibly be worse than the current state of affairs with Assad still around.

Im willing to bet on killed and maimed civilians it would be "better" than right now. Who can say tho. If the Alawites faced a mini genocide it'd possibly be worse.
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