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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 59

post #871 of 2692
I thought it was interesting Assad resorts to the terror barrel bombing because his army lacks the numbers to even surround these cities properly. At one point months ago he had so many defections of key top guys to the rebels I thought maybe he was toast.

My main take from what Ive read is that the US has not only been reluctant (for years now) to robustly back anti-Assad forces due to fears that'd be backing islamic extremist movements, but that principally they are more concerned with the nuclear deal with Assad's main backer, other than Putin, Iran. Overtly helping the Kurds and angering NATO member Turkey a distant second to this. A messy failed state "worse than Assad" may also be posited as a secondary reason too.

Related thought: interesting that ISIS's social media drew upon them an (ultimately "ineffectual"?) limited air campaign whereas Assad has killed and displaced many more than ISIS had to date...also the interesting de facto military alliance of Shi'ite Iran and US vs Sunni Iraq while Shia sect Assad is left free to slaughter with Shia Iranian $...while at the same time the nuclear talks occur over in a totally political arena featuring the US "against" Iran. Then you got the Saudis (US formal ally) and the Yemen Iran proxy thing.

Very messy..and we havent even gotten to Egypt or Israel!
post #872 of 2692
The farther of the drowned boy, has told CNN that they were on their way to Sweden because they have free dental care, this story is just getting worse and worse.
post #873 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post


ISIS has relatively little to do with the refugee crisis.

This article paints an entirely different picture.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28116033

They are also currently moving in to Egypt




On an entirely different subject, this is very interesting.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/03/opinions/moghul-refugee-response-muslim-countries/index.html


Especially this part.
Quote:
On days like these, many Muslims feel helpless, disgusted, ashamed. What is wrong with us? We often reach for colonialism, for imperialism, for occupation. But this misses the point. Many other parts of the world suffered foreign interference, too. And then they didn't. China and South Korea, for example. Or India and Brazil. Now they have far more control over their destinies. They provide much more for their people. They are spoken of as rising powers. At some point, something changed. Something that made them not victims of the world but actors in the world.
post #874 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post


This article paints an entirely different picture.

 

I get it, you're just starting to look into this because the conflict has reached your doorstep. Believe me when I tell you that the regime is the number 1 cause of the refugee crisis. 

 

post #875 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

I get it, you're just starting to look into this because the conflict has reached your doorstep. Believe me when I tell you that the regime in Washington is the number 1 cause of the refugee crisis. 

FTFY
post #876 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post


FTFY


Jesus Christ go crawl back into the hole that you came from. 

post #877 of 2692
Hardly I grew up in social housing and for the better part of a decade, I was the only white boy, my friends were Iranians, Iraqi, Eritrean etc etc. who either fled wars or were children of system critics.

If you had bothered reading the article, you've seen it states that 3 million Iraqis are running from IS, which is almost as many as the Syrians, so they do indeed have very much to do with it. Also alot of the asylum seekers we are currently getting are claiming asylum from boco haram and IS.

It's easy to be an expert in a conflict thousands of miles away in the US and claim people who live with the issues day to day as ignorant.
post #878 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Find Finn View Post

Hardly I grew up in social housing and for the better part of a decade, I was the only white boy, my friends were Iranians, Iraqi, Eritrean etc etc. who either fled wars or were children of system critics.

If you had bothered reading the article, you've seen it states that 3 million Iraqis are running from IS, which is almost as many as the Syrians, so they do indeed have very much to do with it. Also alot of the asylum seekers we are currently getting are claiming asylum from boco haram and IS.

It's easy to be an expert in a conflict thousands of miles away in the US and claim people who live with the issues day to day as ignorant.


The majority of Iraqi refugees are internally displaced. They are in Baghdad, Najaf, Karbala and the Kurdish region. 

post #879 of 2692
Good stats:



Note the top left chart spiking. This is partially due to Turkey opening its borders to them a little more, no? Or mostly boat people sick of refugee camps?

Either way Assad has displaced >4M, killed 3-400k depending on where you read, and maimed probably >100k (Id guess) all out of a country with 23M people in it five years ago.

Im not sure if you blame Obama for interpreting his overarching mandate from the American people as "no more US combat in the ME no matter what" or W for having "created" this mandate for Obama to deal with...
post #880 of 2692
This is illuminating:
post #881 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirReveller View Post

Note the top left chart spiking. This is partially due to Turkey opening its borders to them a little more, no? Or mostly boat people sick of refugee camps?


From the news and what my friends have told me people have reached a breaking point with waiting for the war to end. They are not technically allowed to work in Turkey, Lebanon, or Jordan and have decided that now is the time to seek a permanent solution. Many believed that the US would impose a NFZ and they would be able to return to their homes albeit under Nusra, Ahrar, JAI etc rule but at least they'd be safe from indiscriminate bombing. 

 

The prevailing thought in the US and Europe has been that Syria can be contained. Clearly that was a miscalculation. Who knows what would have happened had the US said fuck you to Russia and imposed a NFZ or had Obama given the green light to liquidate the regime after the first chemical weapons incident.

post #882 of 2692
Thread Starter 

If I were one of you yourapeans I would get some money together to fund some Syrian restaurants. Nobody makes fried chicken better than the Syrians. 

post #883 of 2692
'bama certainly F'd up w his "red line" rhetoric.

A year+ ago aside from the defections of top guys I read in Foreign Affairs or somewhere that Assad's troops were "sick of killing the people" but I guess his little 10% Alawaite-Shia officer corps is so afraid of retaliation from the 60% Sunnis and other little ethnic/religious groups should they give up the fight that they'll stick w Assad til the end rather than undertaking some kind of "Valkyrie" mutiny scenario followed by negotiations...

The Portuegese are the chicken masters of the world BTW :P
post #884 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirReveller View Post

'bama certainly F'd up w his "red line" rhetoric.

A year+ ago aside from the defections of top guys I read in Foreign Affairs or somewhere that Assad's troops were "sick of killing the people" but I guess his little 10% Alawaite-Shia officer corps is so afraid of retaliation from the 60% Sunnis and other little ethnic/religious groups should they give up the fight that they'll stick w Assad til the end rather than undertaking some kind of "Valkyrie" mutiny scenario followed by negotiations...

The Portuegese are the chicken masters of the world BTW :P

It would not be too much of an exaggeration to say that obama's administration and his liberal progressive foreign policy are 90% of the reason things have gotten this bad
post #885 of 2692
I dunno. He basically had Kerry fold w Iran on the nuclear stipulations that came along w turning down/off sanctions, spurned longtime ally Israel, ditched Maliki allowing the alienation of the Sunnis (ISIS!), and emboldened Assad (and Putin) by pussying out of his own tough talk.

...OK maybe youre right :P
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