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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 49

post #721 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Ironi
Probably the only country that has been benefiting from whats happening, whether they had something to do with it or not.

What better than to have assad attacked and iran and hezballah bled in a war against someone else.

Even better if it all ends up in dividing the region into religious cantons. A jewish state surrounded by arabs is an anomaly. A jewish state surrounded by a shiite, sunni, alawite, kurdish state is not.

Couldnt have worked any better and as always the arabs are happy to oblige.

PressTV recently posted a picture showing Nusra with Israel soldiers on their border. Then there is the UN report on how Israel have treated hundreds of Syrian fighters many of them believed to belong to Nusra along with transferring boxes.

 

Jolani statements and your previous post about dividing the country pretty much confirm what the entire ME has been talking about for the past 3 years now.

 

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by alan View Post

Lol
Lol yep. At least the turkish-qatar alqaeda connection is now out in the open

Who is gonna check em?

post #722 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by rhyme View Post

PressTV recently posted a picture showing Nusra with Israel soldiers on their border. Then there is the UN report on how Israel have treated hundreds of Syrian fighters many of them believed to belong to Nusra along with transferring boxes.

Yep it goes beyond the medical help too. Its pretty known theyve been providing intelligence/training with the jordanians. The irony is that other supporters of nusra still are weary of it spreading in their countries while Israel is probably the most comfortable having alqaeda at its borders.

Plus remember the direct raids Israel engaged in in southern syria against Hezballah (killing Moughniyeh's son) while they were in the direct frontlines against alqaeda.

But i generally avoid bringing it up, ive had my overdose of "youre a conspiracy theorist who blames everything on Israel" discussions. But honestly, who can blame them? it would be like a dream come true. Sunni and shiites fighting eachother and having alqaeda of all people do their dirty work. Theyd be fools not to jump all over it.

Quote:
Jolani statements and your previous post about dividing the country pretty much confirm what the entire ME has been talking about for the past 3 years now.

Honestly the Hezballah-Syria guys have been saying it since the Iraq invasion in 2003. Back then i came back to lebanon and was anti-Syrian occupation so by default anti-Hezballah and used to laugh at the perceived propaganda that had nothing to do with anything, as far as we knew.

But everything they said happened. And still is.

You have to blame Bashar though for failing to prepare internally, with proper reforms/better economic conditions for the poor. Poverty is key. But i dont know how much the regime has wiggling room, with a huge target on its back from so many sides.
Quote:
:
Who is gonna check em?

Oh noone ever. It just helps control my rage and blood pressure when people still wanna play dumb.
post #723 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Word is 20,000 IRGC arrived in Latakia a couple days ago and are headed for Jisr a-Shughour. Soleimani's "surprise." 

post #724 of 2692
^^^ Havent seen that confirmed yet but i think its essential for the next step for the countries suffering from ISIS and Nusra to unite their fronts.

Borders mean very little now, when its an international and gulf coalition against you and its moving fighters from all over the world and between Iraq and Syria at will.

Syria-Hezballah-Iraq-Hashd Shaabi-Iran-Yemen(?) must unite their fronts and have some kind of joint military command.
post #725 of 2692
Thread Starter 

The idea of the Hashd al Sha'abi going into Syria is very interesting. On one hand, these guys should hate Bashar for supporting AQI. On the other, they have to side with their Hizbollah brothers. I think there is no chance in hell that 'Abadi allows HS to go into Syria. 3la kul haal, that is years away. It's more likely that hardline partisans in the Hashd would join Hizbollah.

post #726 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Haven't had a YPG update in a while but 

 

 

Tal Abyad may end up like Kobani. It depends on how many fighters is willing to lose. 

post #727 of 2692
Pretty sure this coordination is decades old but anyway



http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-Saudi-Arabia-admit-secret-diplomacy-for-first-time-405123

Israel and Saudi Arabia have held five secret meetings since the beginning of 2014 to discuss the common threat Iran posses to the region, it was revealed for the first time Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, according to Bloomberg.

Although the two are considered to be historic enemies, with Saudi Arabia refusing to recognize the Jewish State's right to exist, they never-the-less have engaged in a campaign of clandestine diplomacy in an effort to thwart the Islamic Republic's growing influence in the Middle East.

Dore Gold, slotted to be the next director general of the Foreign Ministry, and Anwar Majed Eshki, a retired Saudi general and ex-adviser to Prince Bandar bin Sultan and the former Saudi ambassador to the US, both addressed the Washington think-tank event, according to Bloomberg.

"Our standing today on this stage does not mean we have resolved all the differences that our countries have shared over the years," Gold said, adding "But our hope is we will be able to address them fully in the years ahead."

The five bilateral meetings over the last 17 months occurred in India, Italy and the Czech Republic. One participant, Shimon Shapira, a retired Israeli general and an expert on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, was quoted as saying :"We discovered we have the same problems and same challenges and some of the same answers."

Shapira described the problem as Iran's activities in the region, and said both sides had discussed political and economic ways to blunt them, Bloomberg noted.
post #728 of 2692
Serious question,

what is the reason Iran why is seen as such a threat.. I get the whole nuke pursuing thing, but aside from that they act like any other player in that region.. Seems to me they could in fact be a more stable partner in the region than the arabs..

Really, if any of you could help with this..
post #729 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nootje View Post

Serious question,

what is the reason Iran why is seen as such a threat.. I get the whole nuke pursuing thing, but aside from that they act like any other player in that region.. Seems to me they could in fact be a more stable partner in the region than the arabs..

Really, if any of you could help with this..


Man, where to start. First of all, it's not a choice whether to align with them or not because the regime views the West as their arch enemies. Here are the bullets:

  • The IRI came to being by overthrowing a US backed monarch.
  • The IRI is a state sponsor of terror through their proxy war on Israel with Lebanese Hizbollah as well as their war on American troops through Kata'ib Hizbollah, 'Asaib Ahlul Haq, and Liwa al Yowm al Mawud.
  • Their alignment with Russia, North Korea, and Bashar al Asad is on the wrong side of things. 
post #730 of 2692
Thread Starter 

This election season has been disgusting in Turkey. Yesterday an HDP supporter was pulled from his bus, tortured, and executed on the side of the road and there were a few other incidents. Today there was a bomb at an HDP rally in Diyarbakir. If AKP gets enough seats to change the constitution without a referendum it could be a disaster for Turkey. 

post #731 of 2692
Thread Starter 

These rumors that M. Zahran 'Alloush is being groomed to fight Nusra and eventually handle the political transition are juicy. I do know that the State Department has had contact with 'Alloush so it's not super far-fetched. He's definitely not cozy with AQ like Ahrar is and if the McClatchy interview proves anything it's that he's willing to be pragmatic. How quickly he would buck and revert to his previous rhetoric if he were installed in Damascus is another question... 

post #732 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Erdogan is upset with American support for the "terrorist Kurds" in Syria. As opposed to the terrorist Arabs he supports :\

post #733 of 2692
Thread Starter 

I guess we are supporting these terrorists though:

 

post #734 of 2692
Visiting Israel as promised. Looks like the Druze are lobbying to protect their brethren in Syria here. Complicated though, Israel won't do anything in Syria and the Druze there won't leave their land to go to safety.
post #735 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nootje View Post

Visiting Israel as promised. Looks like the Druze are lobbying to protect their brethren in Syria here. Complicated though, Israel won't do anything in Syria and the Druze there won't leave their land to go to safety.


I think it's going to end up with the Druze refusing Asad and either creating their own militia or joining an FSA group down there. They need to protect themselves from both the regime and Nusra. 

 

In other news, Burkan al-Furat kicks ISIS out of Tal Abyad, which is Gire Spi now I guess, and now control a large majority of the border with Turkey. Naturally, Erdogan is upset that ISIS has been replaced by "terrorist Kurds." He can go fuck himself. 

 

Looking forward to the liberation of Raqqah. 

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