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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 5

post #61 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Marines have been engaged with IS for the last 24 hours at Ain al-Assad. Reports that IS has the base surrounded. There will be a shitstorm in this country if there are any KIA. 

post #62 of 2692
According to reports, the troops who were engaged were an advisory unit. E.g. probably SEALS, and other special forces. Not surprising it sounds like it was repelled rather easily.
post #63 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post

According to reports, the troops who were engaged were an advisory unit. E.g. probably SEALS, and other special forces. Not surprising it sounds like it was repelled rather easily.


I'm pretty sure they were Marines but they have since sent 300 more troops and 3 apaches. The IS assault looks like a probe. IS really has their hands full at the moment though with significant fighting going on in Kobane, Deir az-Zour and Sinjar so I don't think anything is likely to happen at AAS. 

post #64 of 2692
Thread Starter 

This morning IS carried out a suicide attack on the KSA border that killed a Saudi general. 

 

Why would you poke KSA with what is, in the grand scheme of things, an inconsequential kill? IS poses a huge existential threat to KSA as a salafi dominated country. That border is normally pretty well stocked and I'm sure it will become impenetrable by the end of the next few days. 

post #65 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

IS poses a huge existential threat to KSA as a salafi dominated country.

i'm not sure this makes sense ?
post #66 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post


i'm not sure this makes sense ?

 

I mean that Saudi has a significant population who is sympathetic to IS's cause. Mobilization of radicals inside KSA would be a big headache for the Sauds. 

post #67 of 2692
That's true but by the same token, Saudi is no stranger to internal unrest, there have been many anti-government movements (though rarely is anything heard outside the country) and all have been swiftly dealt with, branding them shia agitators or something of the sort. What is interesting is this is effectively KSA's own export coming back ~250 years after the pact made between ibn Saud and Abd al-Wahhab, allowing the former to seize power and justify it by the ideology of the latter. Maybe if they didn't spend billions publishing only ibn Taymiyyah and ibn Qayyim as if that's the entirety of ahl al-Sunnah history and thought ...
post #68 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Ahlul Sunnah does seem to be very confused and conflicted at the moment. 

 

Have you ever seen Nakshawani lectures talking about Saudi? Dude goes in hard on them and deservedly so. 

post #69 of 2692
it's probably not fair to indict everyone like that, i doubt there's a sizable majority that's confused and conflicted but rather an uneducated a overzealous subpopulation that wants to vent frustrations.

Nakshawani is fine, it's good that people are publicly so outgoing, but it's rather annoying that no matter the subject he ends up crying at the end along with all the audience...He along with many others (Hamza Yusuf, Yassir Qadhi, Tariq Ramadan, Abdel Hakim Murad, etc) have been giving lectures all covering the same topics re: IS, specifically the ahadith that describe them (physical appearances and characteristic, ideological, so on and so forth).
post #70 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

it's probably not fair to indict everyone like that, i doubt there's a sizable majority that's confused and conflicted but rather an uneducated a overzealous subpopulation that wants to vent frustrations.

 

This is true. Not sure if you've seen this chart:

 

 

I'd like to see a revised version including Nusra. 

post #71 of 2692
Incidentally, I was speaking with someone involved in survey methodology (his work revolved around fraud detection which is effectively applied statistics for really complex and sparse data) and, unrelated to IS or anything like that, he brought up the issue of psychology involved. There were many studies that showed simply using a different language could influence the result for a given population. That said, these are still probably the best metrics and the results aren't surprising.
post #72 of 2692
Thread Starter 

This was actually a survey done on media coverage so it's not entirely reflective of personal opinions. I would guess that actual support for IS is slightly higher than reported here. All of that is relatively meaningless though. What really matters is what the people in IS areas think of IS. The offensive on Mosul is going to reveal a lot about how the rollback of IS is going to proceed.

post #73 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

This was actually a survey done on media coverage so it's not entirely reflective of personal opinions. I would guess that actual support for IS is slightly higher than reported here. All of that is relatively meaningless though. What really matters is what the people in IS areas think of IS. The offensive on Mosul is going to reveal a lot about how the rollback of IS is going to proceed.

If the public reaction in a country or region is very negative to ISIS, do you think they will act to stop ISIS?
post #74 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post


If the public reaction in a country or region is very negative to ISIS, do you think they will act to stop ISIS?


In what way do you mean? As in, if IS tried to advance on them would they put them down? They the people or they the government? 

post #75 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post


In what way do you mean? As in, if IS tried to advance on them would they put them down? They the people or they the government? 

They the people.
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