or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › ethan's Musing on the Near East
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 38

post #556 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

It's hard to read how they feel about Nusra. Clearly they can't be supported in the long run but if you noticed they were left out of Fateh Halab. Also you have to think about the whole country because Nusra is reviled in the south.

Yes fateh Halab was established by Jeish el Islam leader Zahran Alloush. He was always at odds with Nusra (hes saudi backed).

However, Jeish el Fateh (which did most of the heavy work in the recent push in northern syria), is supported by Turkey and Qatar and Nusra is at the heart and core of it.

Fateh Halab is just a new name for the saudi orbiters there. They didnt merge but the recent push was a sign of coordination and acceptance by Saudi Arabia of Nusras role. The free syrian army turned out to be a joke, Zahran Alloush was stagnating, whats making a difference are the islamists now.

Whether thats temporary or not remains to be seen.

Plus Turkey isnt about to heavily arm the rebels like it did just to hand over the victory to Saudi Arabia or Alloush. They can either find a solution or go head to head like theyre doing in Libya.

The islamists were recently asked to establish "civil law" in a city the rebels occupied, and their reply was "the one who fights the battles is the one who dictactes the rules". And the ones fighting now are Al Qaeda, and theyre openly supported by the opposition camp. ANd now that city is under Sharia law
post #557 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post


Yes fateh Halab was established by Jeish el Islam leader Zahran Alloush. He was always at odds with Nusra (hes saudi backed).

However, Jeish el Fateh (which did most of the heavy work in the recent push in northern syria), is supported by Turkey and Qatar and Nusra is at the heart and core of it.

Fateh Halab is just a new name for the saudi orbiters there. They didnt merge but the recent push was a sign of coordination and acceptance by Saudi Arabia of Nusras role. The free syrian army turned out to be a joke, Zahran Alloush was stagnating, whats making a difference are the islamists now.

Whether thats temporary or not remains to be seen.

Plus Turkey isnt about to heavily arm the rebels like it did just to hand over the victory to Saudi Arabia or Alloush. They can either find a solution or go head to head like theyre doing in Libya.

The islamists were recently asked to establish "civil law" in a city the rebels occupied, and their reply was "the one who fights the battles is the one who dictactes the rules". And the ones fighting now are Al Qaeda, and theyre openly supported by the opposition camp. ANd now that city is under Sharia law


I disagree with the assessment that Nusra is the core of Jaysh al Fateh. I think Ahrar is the most important component. Like I said, Nusra is not setting up their Dar al Qada courts in Idlib as they are going with something more similar to Ahrar's Islamic Commissions. Granted the Unified Arab Code that the IC is based on is sharia and oppressive I think that it proves that Ahrar is equal to if not more powerful than Nusra. 

 

I think Nusra can be considered a vanguard group whereas Ahrar is closer to parochial. With Ahrar as a more sensible option (one who allows smoking, for one) I don't know if Nusra can become more integrated in the north. 

 

All that being said my prediction is that Nusra is going to be marginalized by better funded and eventually officially backed Islamists who will impose an oppressive sectarian governance. Minorities will flee and they will have gotten what they wanted. Another wildcard in this whole scenario is if Turkey will eventually back a proxy to fight the PYD. 

 

All sorts of ins and outs and what have yous. 

post #558 of 2699
^^^ maybe youre right. Tbh i dont have a clear distinction between various radical islamist groups. MAny of the media faces of the new army were Nusra affiliated and Nusra has a very wide presence in Syria. Plus a lot of leaders/fighters switch sides every other week.

Do you think the Iran/Hezballah/Assad side still has something up their sleeves regarding Syria? Im guessing at some point simple demographics have taken over and alawis are outnumbered while sunni fighters from inside and outside continue to flock. And theres a shortage of money, while Saudi throws billions and Turkey throws weapons.

Do you think there is a red line about the coastal cities where alawis/christians reside? that there will be a settlement of some kind or that Russia/Iran will just give up and let all of Syria go?
post #559 of 2699
Thread Starter 

I'm not so sure where Iran/Hizb relations are with the regime and how regime-side people feel about them. You have to think that the average Damascene is opposed to the increasing sectarianism that comes with Iran/Hizb involvement. I think there is also a feeling among Alawites that Asad is sending their sons to die which might explain the lack of tenacity in defending Idlib City and Jisr al Shughur.

 

I absolutely think that if there is a red line north of Homs that it's Latakia. Port access for rebels would open up a lot of options in terms of importing weapons and fighters which would force the 6th Fleet to step in to prevent Nusra from benefitting. The backbone, as they say, is the regime's number 1 priority at this point because it's clear they can't regain cities that have been taken mostly for the fact that anyone sympathetic to the regime has surely fled. 

post #560 of 2699
Thread Starter 

In other news, Anjem Choudary has received US approval to tour the country. I think he will have more than a few shadows following him and attending his events. 

post #561 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Serious diplomacy, not macho personal smear, is what we need. Congrats on Ur new born. May U and Ur family enjoy him in peace .@SenTomCotton

 

Trollolol.

 

Actually Zarif's tweet is the response to these:

 

 

Hey @JZarif, I hear you called me out today. If you’re so confident, let’s debate the Constitution. 1/4

Here’s offer: meet in DC, @JZarif, time of your choosing to debate Iran’s record of tyranny, treachery, & terror. 2/4

I understand if you decline @JZarif after all, in your 20s, you hid in US during Iran-Iraq war while peasants & kids were marched to die 3/4

Not badge of courage @JZarif, to hide in US while your country fought war to survive-but shows cowardly character still on display today 4/4


Edited by ethanm - 4/30/15 at 11:11am
post #562 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post
 

Another wildcard in this whole scenario is if Turkey will eventually back a proxy to fight the PYD. 

 

Well that didn't take long... Ahrar, Nusra, and their "F"SA friends have declared war on the PYD/YPG/J in Aleppo. They are saying that the Kurdish Asayish security forces abused a woman. 

post #563 of 2699
Small Arab force reported in Aden, alliance accused of cluster bomb use. Saudi denied major ground ops but refused to comment on special forces there
post #564 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

Small Arab force reported in Aden, alliance accused of cluster bomb use. Saudi denied major ground ops but refused to comment on special forces there


Meanwhile they blame the victims of the Faj Attan strike for having been there. Saudi should not be allowed to have nice things. 

post #565 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Nusra with a suicide bomb in Damascus proper targeting Major General Muhammad Eid.

post #566 of 2699
Just heard Senegal is sending troops to help fight houthis lol
post #567 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Criticize Iran for their proxies, purchase West African mercenaries (essentially).

post #568 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Turkey urges tourists in Times Square to reconsider the Armenian Genocide. 

 

 

I think your average person walking through TS doesn't know what the Armenian Genocide is or where Turkey is located. 

post #569 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Criticize Iran for their proxies, purchase West African mercenaries (essentially).

Maybe they were thrown in as a bonus by their old colonial invader in exchange for the billions biggrin.gif







Riyadh (AFP) - French President Francois Hollande sought to boost ties in the Gulf Monday as he oversaw the signing of a warplanes deal with Qatar and arrived in Saudi Arabia for a summit.

Hollande was to be the first Western head of state to attend a Gulf Cooperation Council leaders' meeting when they gather in Riyadh on Tuesday.

The extraordinary summit comes at a crucial time for the six-nation GCC, with a Saudi-led coalition bombing rebels in Yemen, concern over the rise of Islamist militants and regional worries over a potential final nuclear deal with Iran.

With Hollande in attendance, the CEO of French aerospace firm Dassault, Eric Trappier, signed the 6.3-billion-euro ($7-billion) deal with Qatari defence officials in Doha.

The agreement includes an order for 24 Rafale fighter jets, with an option on a further 12.

"Good choice," Hollande said as the deal was signed.


"If we are present here in Qatar... it is because there has been a long tradition, and because France is seen as a reliable country which a partner country can have confidence in."

Having struggled for years to sell any Rafales abroad, Dassault has recently scored several lucrative high-profile contracts with Egypt, India, and now Qatar.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said recently that talks with the United Arab Emirates on buying Rafales were also headed in the "right direction".

- 'Sign of friendship' -

At the signing ceremony, Hollande hailed France's ties with Gulf countries and his invitation to the GCC summit.
post #570 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Also from Qatar: Journalists Critical Of FIFA Arrested And Detained In Qatar

 

FIFA and Qatar really deserve each other.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Current Events, Power and Money
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › ethan's Musing on the Near East