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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 37

post #541 of 2698
Yes, because I was writing a legal treatise on styleforum.net 6 martinis deep. Thanks for that.
post #542 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Must to speak the language to talk the conversation yo.
post #543 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Must to speak the language to talk the conversation yo.

You've bested me. Congratulations.

The drone strikes will continue until morale improves.
post #544 of 2698
Thread Starter 
That being said, AQ is far too vertically embedded for decapitation to really matter.
post #545 of 2698
AQ/Nusra took Shughur. Western media reporting it as a victory for US-backed rebels lol
post #546 of 2698
israel bombed hezballah and syria positions in qalamoun (where they had isis/nusra pinned for some time now)....
post #547 of 2698
post #548 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post

AQ/Nusra took Shughur. Western media reporting it as a victory for US-backed rebels lol


Nusra is actually a minority hand in Jaysh al-Fath. You can see this as Nusra's Dar al-Qada courts have not been implemented in Idlib. It is a force that is sympathetic to Nusra though. Not sure how that plays out in an end-game where the regime decides to come to a political solution. 

post #549 of 2698
Thread Starter 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Turkey and Saudi are pulling the strings in recent rebel victories. I think that Ahrar is receiving a lot of support from Turkey and it's known that Zahran 'Alloush of Jaysh al-Islaam was was in Turkey last week (side note: how in the world does he get out of Ghouta?). 

 

It looks like another operations room is being put together in Aleppo called Fateh Halab, Nusra excluded. 

 

I have no proof but these offensives are different and I can't help but think it's Erdogan and Salman's doing. 


Edited by ethanm - 4/26/15 at 4:56pm
post #550 of 2698
Its definitely what happened ethan.

Its interesting to me that media sources here have been so accurate in predicting stuff thats been going on.

From the Turkish saudi push to the internal saudi dealings.

Theyve talked for a while that Mhammad ben Salman the Kings son (who basically is calling all the shots there), is moving to isolate all the others and become prince to succeed the King.

King has just removed the first Prince Mukren and replaced him with his son (who now becomes second in line). The first in line is Ben Nayef whos known for his anti-islamist actions (at least inside Saudi Arabia). Im guessing he will be targeted next.

Many were criticizing how the Yemen campaign was a show of force by Ben Salman to assert his power and there he is...
post #551 of 2698
He promoted both of them. If he wanted Nayef gone, then why did he bump him up?
post #552 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post

He promoted both of them. If he wanted Nayef gone, then why did he bump him up?

From what i read Nayef is powerful. He commands a powerful branch of the security forces and has been around for a while.

Ben Salman is young and new but is gaining power at a steady pace.
He hadnt held any significant positions before.

My guess is he figured Nayef was too powerful and it was too soon to go after him.
post #553 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Its interesting to me that media sources here have been so accurate in predicting stuff thats been going on.

 

What about Kashoggi and his speculation about Zawahiri hanging it up and dissolving AQC? In a messed up way, I think that would be bad. Even though Nusra would still be designated their would be a different attitude towards them if they dropped the global jihad rhetoric of AQ. 

post #554 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

What about Kashoggi and his speculation about Zawahiri hanging it up and dissolving AQC? In a messed up way, I think that would be bad. Even though Nusra would still be designated their would be a different attitude towards them if they dropped the global jihad rhetoric of AQ. 

I hate that guy. Just predicted very happily that Lebanon will be next to witness trouble. Damn oil reserves...

As for AQ and Nusra, there was a heavy push towards that from Saudi Arabia as a prerequisite for the Turkish-Saudi alliance, but it seems that eventually everyone said "screw it" and backed Nusra anyway and the alliance happened. Nusra knew it held the ground and it was the one producing results on the battlefied, so wasnt about to be ordered around.
Im sure it will still be a PR requirement for when it comes time for a political settlement or victory, but i think the gloves are off and if theres one thing all of this showed, is the often symbiotic relation between some regimes and terrorist organizations.

If they disband from Alqaeda, that changes nothing from their ideology, which would be the same, nor their terrorist practices, which are worse even. Its Nusra that kidnapped the christian clerics and murdered tons of civilians from all religions.

Next time i hear a christian american talking about alqaeda im throwing a brick on his face.


ABout Nayef and Salman, it seems that from the way the switch happened, that Nayef and Ben Salman made a pact of some sort. Some are saying Ben Salman realised he was too young and got a promise from Nayef that he would be next in line when Nayef becomes king. But both remain very suspicious of eachother. Ben Salman could still move to replace Nayef and theres no guarantee Nayef will be true to his words. Meanwhile Ben Salman keeps appointing people close to him in any positiion he can.
post #555 of 2698
Thread Starter 
It's hard to read how they feel about Nusra. Clearly they can't be supported in the long run but if you noticed they were left out of Fateh Halab. Also you have to think about the whole country because Nusra is reviled in the south.
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