Originally Posted by ethanm
The ways in which a Turkish-Saudi overthrow of Bashar could go wrong are so many and varied I can't even begin to think about it. I wonder what the current SAA would do if the regime were decapitated. Likely fall Hizbollah or create new militias to fight the jihadists, yeah?
Part of me wants that to happen just to watch it blow up in their faces. But happy endings rarely happen here.
Theres a lot of sunnis in Bashars army and areas and while theyre loyal and support him i doubt theyd stay indoctrinated into fighting in case the regime fell. Plus a lot of the officers there are corrupt as hell so i doubt the army would stay cohesive without the regime.
Hezballah built for a lot of years inside the shiite community to get to where its currently at. The christians and alawites would basically be fighting for their lives at that point, no doubt that theyd be looking towards Hezballah for support and organization but i doubt theyd retain any level of effectiveness. Unless some efforts are already underway to organize such militias but itd just be delaying the inevitable.
Syria and Hezballah are basically fighting islamists from tens of countries, alawites and christians are already few in number, Hezballah has a few fronts to worry about, and in case the sunni countries want to go for all out war all hell will break loose. Lebanon has palestinian camps that are armed to their teeth, theres Israel on the border, thered be Turks invading Syria, etc...Hezballah would be fighting on 3 or 4 fronts.
Theres no way to resist such a supposed scenario if superpowers such as Iran and Russia dont fully commit.
But yes its still hard to imagine it happening given how fragile those regimes are. I definitely think theyll try to improve their positions more though