Originally Posted by the shah
very good points, alan, except a couple things i'm not sure i agree with:
the ideology is by its very nature not sustainable. you can have an infinite regression of takfir, leading to a single person left standing because of the very undemocratic way it is determined (many will even argue that the method by which they carry this out is in contradiction to islamic teaching)
Yes but if single family monarchs are able to control a country for decades here, itll be far easier for an islamist group. Lack of education and poverty dont make the most aware populations.
true, which is ironic considering قومیه is supposed to be second to the deen, if at all existing ...
As a lebanese christian i used to be allergic to any mention of arab nationalism, but i now see it was the only hope for this region. Too bad it was spearheaded by incompetent people with good intentions or shrewd ones with bad intentions.
this is true except there are shi'i in Africa, to a certain extent, but perhaps not mobilized as some political/military entity.
Yes not in any significant position of power nor any potential to be.
are you sure about this ? yemen has a been a proxy battle zone for saudi/iran for quite some time now.
Pretty sure that the houthi-iran involvement is very recent. Houthis are a product of complicated yemeni relations and saudi arabias and its proxies mistreatment of yemen.
It was known that at times Qatar would fund Houthis in its competition with SA.
For the West, Iran is the biggest threat to our strategic interests in the region. ISIS would be but since there is such a consensus from all sides that ISIS needs to go they don't really count. AQ is the biggest threat in terms of terrorism.
This is where we disagree. There is (was) no such consensus, and most of all there were no tools to enforce it even if it exists.
I still maintain that its a crystal clear fact that ISIS, Nusra, etc.... Are a product of Turkey, Qatar, and SA support (in the case of SA its other groups).
Anyway, who was going to enforce such a consensus? Saudi Arabia doesnt have the manpower to do so. Turkey could i guess but why would it. Egypt is in a transition phase and has enough problems at home. ISIS was growing exponentially and the sunni regimes werent immune. Iran is the one that produced results, in Syria with Assad, in Lebanon with Hezballah, in Iraq now.
Longterm, you cant have Iran policing the arab states, but i think it growing in force could and should be used to draw a large scale settlement in the region. Saudi Arabia and Israel are still pushing in the other direction and this could still end up in a huge explosion, or it could lead to some kind of settlement.