Originally Posted by ethanm
False. Qatar can be blamed for their support of other Salafi groups but ISIS is very treacherous for the Sunni gulf monarchies. Turkey can only be blamed for complacence in the face of the ISIS threat.
Qatar was not in line with the gulf policies.
Remember a couple of monthes ago when the Gulf monarchies isolated Qatar and withdrew their diplomacies?
There is a huge difference in Qatar vs other gulf and that is their muslim brotherhood alliance.
The brotherhood is pretty much enemy #1 of the Saudi and Emirati monarchies, yet the Qatari regime is completely in line with the brotherhood. They clashed over Egypt and over Syria.
Saudi itself supported ISIS at the start, and some of its figures were ousted from the regime on account of that and the subsequent failure (Bandar for example)
As for Turkey, its far more than complacence. You can even see that in mainstream american experts/officials speeches sometimes. And its pretty much common knowledge.
Except for the atheist leftist Kurds. I think that Assad very deliberately eliminated the middle.
Thats true. I wouldnt call them middle, just less of the ISIS theatrics and mindless barbarism. Theres even a dumbass token communist christian in the syrian opposition council, but that means little on the ground.
Assad and iran played chicken(or whatever you call that game where two cars speed towards eachother). When ISIS grew in Iraq and Syria, everyone was watching to see who would blink first.
Assad was smart (pretty sure Iran has managed this for him so far).
I dont know if the american-iranian negotiations will go beyond the nuclear, but i think what needs to happen for stability is for tthe USA to recognize that Iran exists, that it is somewhat powerful, that hezballah exists, that yemeni and bahraini shiites exist. Whether or not you want to recognize Iran as a regional powerhouse, it exists.
And Iran needs to realize that it cant play the force card and have limitless ambitions. The weak sunni regims of today may not still be here tomorrow.
Then they come up with arrangements for things everywhere, and the US brings the Saudis along.
Otherwise, this is just the beginning of a long and very messy thing here.
I dont trust any syrian regime change outside of such arrangement, because the ultimate next goal of ANY regime that comes through forceful removal of Assad whether moderate or even named by the pope itself, will be to instigate syrian and lebanese and palestinian sunnis against Hezballah.
If anyone wants stability in the region, Iran should get a place at that table.
realistically, this is the only recipe for stability in the region. A strong Iran and a strong US- Saudi Arabia managing their interests. That means concessions by everyone, including Israel.