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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 25

post #361 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

You are really stretching in your assumptions that anyone benefits from ISIS. The other salafi groups are a different story though. Ahrar, Nusra, and Jeish al islam are going to be a huge problem in a post isis Syria.

What has isis been other than a more effective version of these groups?

If anyone benefited or sought to from those others, it was to erode Assad and iran allies. And Isis so far has done the best job. It took land from maliki and it took land from Assad. I dont think the usa wants ISIS to stay and grow, but it definitely didnt mind it being a thorn. Now itll seek to switch those gains that ISIS achieved to some other hroup.

Qatar and turkey are the source of isis. There is no question about it.


As for the link, this is a continuation of the charade. US and turkey recently announced that they will train moderate fighters. If this is an actual plan and not a PR stunt, that simply means that the salafists will switch and pretend to be moderates again. Nusra is just as radical and hateful as ISIS, and have actively prrsecuted syrian christians and still do.

In the beginning of the war they said the free syrian army was moderate, but that army barely existed. Look at the earliest videos and all youll see are the black isis bandanas.

I dont doubt the dislike among a lot of syrians for assad. But every fighter fighting in Syria is a sunni radical and does so out of that conviction.

For me and most communities facing these terrorists, the only hope unfortunately is that assad/iran/russia hold strong.
post #362 of 2699
Thread Starter 

If anyone benefited or sought to from those others, it was to erode Assad and iran allies. And Isis so far has done the best job.

 

You do realize that all is quiet on the SAA/ISIS lines birif halab, right? ISIS has taken minimally from the regime and has only taken from other rebel groups.


Qatar and turkey are the source of isis. There is no question about it. 

 

False. Qatar can be blamed for their support of other Salafi groups but ISIS is very treacherous for the Sunni gulf monarchies. Turkey can only be blamed for complacence in the face of the ISIS threat.

As for the link, this is a continuation of the charade. US and turkey recently announced that they will train moderate fighters. If this is an actual plan and not a PR stunt, that simply means that the salafists will switch and pretend to be moderates again. Nusra is just as radical and hateful as ISIS, and have actively prrsecuted syrian christians and still do.

 

Legitimate. Nobody in here is arguing that Nusra is acceptable either. Nusra, Ahrar, Jeish al-Islam, and others poisoned the revolution. Assad knew his best chance for survival was to make the opposition more radical. 

I dont doubt the dislike among a lot of syrians for assad. But every fighter fighting in Syria is a sunni radical and does so out of that conviction.

 

Except for the atheist leftist Kurds. I think that Assad very deliberately eliminated the middle.

post #363 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Here's something for you Alan:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0M00GE20150304?irpc=932 …

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around about a possible break with AQ. Who knows where the discontent would fall. They won't go to the sinking ship that is ISIS. Ahrar? AQAP? I imagine a lot of them do not want to leave Syria. 

"Leaders of Syria's Nusra Front are considering cutting their links with al Qaeda to form a new entity backed by some Gulf states trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad, sources said."

What could go wrong? Nothing! Because these fucking douchebags apparently don't fucking learn their lessons.
post #364 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post


"Leaders of Syria's Nusra Front are considering cutting their links with al Qaeda to form a new entity backed by some Gulf states trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad, sources said."

What could go wrong? Nothing! Because these fucking douchebags apparently don't fucking learn their lessons.


Or they have learned their lessons that it's better to keep the crazies under your thumb. It works for Saudi. And for a more innocuous exchange of tolerance for Islamism in exchange for peace you can look into the history of the Hashemites and the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. 

post #365 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

False. Qatar can be blamed for their support of other Salafi groups but ISIS is very treacherous for the Sunni gulf monarchies. Turkey can only be blamed for complacence in the face of the ISIS threat.

Qatar was not in line with the gulf policies.

Remember a couple of monthes ago when the Gulf monarchies isolated Qatar and withdrew their diplomacies?

There is a huge difference in Qatar vs other gulf and that is their muslim brotherhood alliance.

The brotherhood is pretty much enemy #1 of the Saudi and Emirati monarchies, yet the Qatari regime is completely in line with the brotherhood. They clashed over Egypt and over Syria.

Saudi itself supported ISIS at the start, and some of its figures were ousted from the regime on account of that and the subsequent failure (Bandar for example)



As for Turkey, its far more than complacence. You can even see that in mainstream american experts/officials speeches sometimes. And its pretty much common knowledge.
Quote:
Except for the atheist leftist Kurds. I think that Assad very deliberately eliminated the middle.

Thats true. I wouldnt call them middle, just less of the ISIS theatrics and mindless barbarism. Theres even a dumbass token communist christian in the syrian opposition council, but that means little on the ground.

Assad and iran played chicken(or whatever you call that game where two cars speed towards eachother). When ISIS grew in Iraq and Syria, everyone was watching to see who would blink first.

Assad was smart (pretty sure Iran has managed this for him so far).



I dont know if the american-iranian negotiations will go beyond the nuclear, but i think what needs to happen for stability is for tthe USA to recognize that Iran exists, that it is somewhat powerful, that hezballah exists, that yemeni and bahraini shiites exist. Whether or not you want to recognize Iran as a regional powerhouse, it exists.

And Iran needs to realize that it cant play the force card and have limitless ambitions. The weak sunni regims of today may not still be here tomorrow.

Then they come up with arrangements for things everywhere, and the US brings the Saudis along.

Otherwise, this is just the beginning of a long and very messy thing here.


I dont trust any syrian regime change outside of such arrangement, because the ultimate next goal of ANY regime that comes through forceful removal of Assad whether moderate or even named by the pope itself, will be to instigate syrian and lebanese and palestinian sunnis against Hezballah.

If anyone wants stability in the region, Iran should get a place at that table.

realistically, this is the only recipe for stability in the region. A strong Iran and a strong US- Saudi Arabia managing their interests. That means concessions by everyone, including Israel.
post #366 of 2699
Thread Starter 

I wouldn't call the PYD/YPG/J/PKK whatever the hell you want to call them middle either they are far left BUT they strike me as the most sensible group operating right now. On top of that they are goddamn jihadi killing machines. They are the only group whom I believe to be sincere when they talk about one Syria for all Syrians. Most of the so-called moderates talk about eliminating the Nusayri and Rawafid etc. 

post #367 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Ladies and gentlemen, Saudi Arabia. Shower inmates convicted of terrorism related crimes with perks http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-rare-look-inside-a-saudi-prison-that-showers-terrorists-with-perks/2015/03/01/2da9dfb4-a64e-11e4-a162-121d06ca77f1_story.html?postshare=7451425563485275

 

... flog and publicly behead everyone else...

post #368 of 2699
It's hard to fault their logic, despite it being unfairly distributed to just terrorists. Punishment makes them worse and you could suppose than rehab is better. I'd just as soon see them all wiped of the planet, but maybe they can have some use in rehabilitating other brainwashed assholes.
post #369 of 2699
Thread Starter 

http://www.businessinsider.com/revealed-the-oil-middleman-between-the-syrian-regime-and-isis-2015-3

 

Combine this with the fact that the ISIS/SAA lines are quiet... 

post #370 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Regarding the Reuters article about a Nusra/AQ split, Nusra has requested that Reuters be more professional and diligent in their fact-checking. 

 

:rotflmao: 

post #371 of 2699
Reports indicate that the new Saudi Leadership is heavily focusing on mending relations with Qatar and Turkey and re-focusing on strengthening the sunni front, and trying to get Egypt to join as well.

The efforts to reshape Nusra and the armed terrorist groups come within this context.

They will be looking to sabotage any american-iranian dealings.
post #372 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Reports indicate that the new Saudi Leadership is heavily focusing on mending relations with Qatar and Turkey and re-focusing on strengthening the sunni front, and trying to get Egypt to join as well.

The efforts to reshape Nusra and the armed terrorist groups come within this context.

They will be looking to sabotage any american-iranian dealings.


Just saw this too: 

#Hamas military wing: Khaled Meshal got official invite from new #Saudi king, expected to visit soon.

post #373 of 2699
The problem with these arab nations is that they are fragile outdated monarchies internally, so any time they want to act on foreign soils, they cannot do it as states since their rule cant withstand any repercussions.

So they resort to supporting and creating various groups, half end up as failures where the sheikh or leader gets millions to sit at home, other half ends up with their own agenda. And any group that does succeed and grow in power will end up becoming a threat to the very own monarchies that created it.

SO much violence has happened because of those nations' failed experiments.
post #374 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Tikrit is expected to be liberated by the weekend. It will be interesting to see how the return of IDPs is facilitated.
post #375 of 2699
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The kid in the emo jihadi meme apparently just blew himself up in a suicide bombing: http://www.news.com.au/world/islamic-state-melbourne-teen-jake-bilardi-in-suicide-attack-reports/story-fndir2ev-1227259305939
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