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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 3

post #31 of 2698
Thread Starter 

Trending in Egpyt الدولة_الإسلامية_هي_الحل#

 

The Islamic State is the solution.

 

I suppose the US is responsible for Mubarak getting acquitted, huh?

post #32 of 2698
Medwed's post reads like the comments you see on facebook screaming about how ISIS is a creation of the CIA and Israel... The shit some otherwise "intelligent" people believe.
post #33 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Take your nonsense somewhere else. 
Your inability to consider options other than: 'it is them not us' is huge part of the problem for US and general intellectual constipatiuon that ois taking place in that country.
1. US is at least 50% responsible for 9/11 and processes in the ME.
2. US government wiped their ass with US constitution and turned the fed law into militarised police state where they torture ,kill and arrest US citizens just for speaking against them.
3. US military doctrine based on manifest destiny and 'New American Century' thinking is what casuing this current chaos in ME and stand-off with Russia.

P.S. You can be all gang hoe and brush off the reality of domestic situation or international failure that is US policy , but then you need to be complaicent, obidient and follow orders really well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post

Medwed's post reads like the comments you see on facebook screaming about how ISIS is a creation of the CIA and Israel... The shit some otherwise "intelligent" people believe.

Do you belive we had something to do with funding and creating Ben Ladin group? As for Israel , it has a huge play in US internal politics, Huge. Just 'New Amrican Century" thintank, google it see who was the mebers and who were the founders of that doctrine. Israel is using US military to do all the dirty work in ME.
post #34 of 2698
Thread Starter 

والله you're out of your element, guy. I'm not interested in your made up stats, opinions, and conpiracy theories regarding American foreign policy motivators. If you want to have a legitimate conversation about current US policy in Sham I'm down but I don't think you can hang because you have no idea what is going on. 

post #35 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

والله you're out of your element, guy. I'm not interested in your made up stats, opinions, and conpiracy theories regarding American foreign policy motivators. If you want to have a legitimate conversation about current US policy in Sham I'm down but I don't think you can hang because you have no idea what is going on. 

I think you are drowning yourself in details and missing the big picture . Your lectures on sectarian peculiarities remind me a stats obession of a baseball fan.
US foreign policy past Cold War has been very transparent but impossible to rationalise (because it was make it up as we go policy ), however these policies are all end up being very detrimental to US interests at the end. US keeps throwing bodies and funds onto the problem, but everyone knows the end game . We have lost the ME, we have a few elements who cooperate with us as long as we are paying them and no real allies. Even NATO member Turkey is not cooperating with US. We have no firends there , no allies and only desperate policy of shooting from a far. We are in a last stages of failure where administartion is trying to save face while the whole thing plays out terribly wrong for us.
post #36 of 2698
And that has what to do with Israel and the CIA puppeting ISIS?
post #37 of 2698
Thread Starter 

Listen ya zalame, just stick around and maybe you will learn something. You have an out of focus view of the situation and that's not uncommon.

post #38 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Listen ya zalame, just stick around and maybe you will learn something. You have an out of focus view of the situation and that's not uncommon.
Thank you sir for allowing me to stay and visit your thread, but please post something I don't already know .
post #39 of 2698
Thread Starter 
IS launched what you might call a last ditch offensive on Kobane this weekend that has been staunched and pushed back. I was sure that place was going to fall in the first week of October. It's good to see that IS can't hang with an equal to superior fighting force backed by air power.

Perhaps a sign of what is going to happen in the Spring and Summer when the full force of the replenished ISF and Peshmerga come down on them. A great scenario for Iraq and the coalition would be to push them into Syria where air power could be concentrated. Dealing with the leftover insurgency Iraq will probably be the ongoing challenge going into next winter.
post #40 of 2698
Ethan:

I read a thesis awhile ago that compared the current situation in the Middle East to the Thirty Years' War in Europe. That war basically allowed Europe to hash things out between the Catholics and the Protestants. The fragmentation of the existing states allowed things to reform in a way that avoided baked-in sectarian conflict within states. It was hugely costly and bloody, but set up the foundation of modern Europe.

The thesis was that the Middle East never really had this process. Between the Ottoman's domination of the region and the arbitrary formation of the modern states by the European colonial powers (who also kept the peace, such as it is), the Middle East never got to vent the pressure of the sectarian conflicts and set nation-state boundaries that actually work. This is problematic now because warfare is much deadlier and much easier to export out of the region, along with the strategic value of the region.


Any thoughts on the concept? It seemed intriguing to me but I'm a stark amateur on the dynamics of the ME.
post #41 of 2698
Thread Starter 

Really difficult to answer but I'm not a fan of comparisons like that. The idea that sectarian violence can only be solved by an overdose of sectarian violence is one that I reject. Blaming the "arbitrary boundaries" of colonialism is also a cop out. If you cut up the ME by sectarian communities it would look like a congressional district map. Problems with ME governments, I think, comes from the fear that losing power is a death sentence. In Lebanon the civil war was because the Maronites didn't want to give up the representation in government they were alotted despite the fact that it didn't reflect the population of the country anymore. In Syria, when Asad came to power he consolidated power by creating an officer corps almost completely of Shi'a and 'Alawi. If they weren't so terrified of being oppressed and killed by the other side, they wouldn't be so quick to violence and so brutal in its use. 

 

These wars could be golden opportunities for Shi'a in Iraq to extend a hand to the Sunnis and in Syria for Sunni rebels to recreate the government and ease Shi'a fears. But... that's not going to happen. Iraq has way more of a chance than Syria I think. Syria is going to be irretrievable for a long, long, long time. 

post #42 of 2698
The 30 years war happened less than a century after the Reformation. The Sunni-Shia schism happened more than 1300 years ago. An array of empires have come and gone across the region since then and they have had innumerable conflicts every bit as bloody as the 30 years war over the last millennium plus. Personally, I blame Xerxes and Darius for this mess, if not Hammurabi.

The recriminations over Chuck Hagel's firing have had the positive side-effect of illuminating our strategy in Syria, which really is to train a unicorn cavalry of immaculate virgins unsullied by any of the conflicts of the last 11 years. Hagel got fired for saying too loudly how stupid this was; who will they find to say this is smart.
post #43 of 2698
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AldenPyle View Post

which really is to train a unicorn cavalry of immaculate virgins unsullied by any of the conflicts of the last 11 years.

 

Even more difficult to find than unicorn cavalry, they want Sunnis who won't take US guns and turn them on the regime or take them and join Ahrar or Nusra. 

post #44 of 2698
Thread Starter 

Marathon that took place in Aleppo recently. Don't forget that there is still humanity in Syria. Marathon is probably a bad translation though, I'm assuming they meant run or race. 

 

post #45 of 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by AldenPyle View Post

The 30 years war happened less than a century after the Reformation. The Sunni-Shia schism happened more than 1300 years ago. An array of empires have come and gone across the region since then and they have had innumerable conflicts every bit as bloody as the 30 years war over the last millennium plus. Personally, I blame Xerxes and Darius for this mess, if not Hammurabi.

The recriminations over Chuck Hagel's firing have had the positive side-effect of illuminating our strategy in Syria, which really is to train a unicorn cavalry of immaculate virgins unsullied by any of the conflicts of the last 11 years. Hagel got fired for saying too loudly how stupid this was; who will they find to say this is smart.

It won't be long before we find out.
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