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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 137

post #2041 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

This is what Khamenei said in 1989 about attacking embassies:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-condemn-saudi-attack-embassy-nimr.html#ixzz3wKztDtm8

Attacking diplomats is a long tradition in Persia and now Iran, they have been killing ambassadors and destroying embassies as far back as 18 century, then 19 century. Iranians have no concept of diplomatic immunity, I don't know why.
post #2042 of 2699
Maybe because in 300 Leonidas kicked their messenger into a hole
post #2043 of 2699
Its interesting how much of the middle east problems and what some blame the US for, is simply a result and continuation of british policies. They really were shady bastards.

They propped up al saud at some point, drew borders with the intent of weakening the states, for centuries in lebanon they supported druze against christians, plus the whole israel thing.

Britain should be the great satan. America just inherited a job.
post #2044 of 2699
IMO, people tend to look at World events from a very micro (short-time) perspective because said events affecting their wellbeing , human life is very short and due to perceived emotional stake in the events.
We are talking about nation creation where no nation existed in some cases for millennia and we often want this to be over in a decade or less with the help of some international committee and money. Unrealistic.
Considering that "Oh so civilised" Europe just stopped massacring each other 17 years ago, and still has multitude of unresolved territorial and ethnic disputes why should we expect any solution in our lifetime in ME?
Once people take step back and realise that these state-creation processes will take 500+ years or more we stop being so gang hoe , emotional or try to point fingers. The best powers can do in our lifetime is to try to alleviate suffering and may be, just may be stop selling arms to all combatants. And definitely we should stop taking sides, that is just idiotic politics that would lead only to more suffering.
post #2045 of 2699
they've been shouting about dollar-unpegging for ages, not really sure it means anything

Pressure Grows on Saudi Arabia to Ditch Dollar Peg
http://www.wsj.com/articles/pressure-grows-on-saudi-arabia-to-ditch-dollar-peg-1452015549

you can see in this image from the article a beheaded kufar in the mall. meanwhile, the women continue about their shopping, typical...



Some interesting and frank admissions by the deputy crown prince:

Iran Crisis Puts Pressure on New Generation of Saudi Leaders
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-crisis-puts-pressure-on-new-generation-of-saudi-leaders-1452044539

Relating to the first article, "Diversification away from oil, for example, has been stated as a goal in every government development plan since the late 1970s. Yet, oil represented 73% of state revenue 2015."

Amazingly, someone in the comments managed to blame Saudi's future economic uncertainty and internal political shiftings on Obama.

An absurd twist: Iraq offers to mediate Saudi-Iran tensions
http://www.trust.org/item/20160106113933-c3fgt/
Edited by the shah - 1/6/16 at 11:46am
post #2046 of 2699
In addition to center for the blind, Saudi coalition bombed Sanaa chamber of commerce and a wedding hall yesterday

civilian casualties top 8,100 as airstrikes and shelling continue
post #2047 of 2699
Fun fact about Saudi economy: 90% of all jobs are government jobs.
post #2048 of 2699
Just like in Scandinavia.
post #2049 of 2699
Thread Starter 

 

 

Translation: Goodnight sweet ISIS in Manbij. 

post #2050 of 2699
You're going to have to translate that for us, ethan.
post #2051 of 2699
Thread Starter 

It says "Jeysh al-Thuwar is starting the battle to liberate Manbij from ISIS gangs by targeting HQs with rockets."

 

I'm sure this will be followed by US air strikes as the rats flee the ship

post #2052 of 2699
Turkey supporting an islamic tatar armed brigade in Ukraine facing Crimea....
post #2053 of 2699
Quote:
Some state bodies would be privatised to try to spur growth, create jobs and cut the financial burden on the public sector. Last month, the civil aviation authority said it aimed to start privatising airports and related services in 2016.

A range of Western consultants have been brought in to advise on policy. One such consultancy, McKinsey & Co, released a report this month saying Saudi Arabia could double its gross domestic product and create jobs for 6 million Saudis by 2030 if it managed a "productivity- and investment-led transformation".
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-economy-policy-idUKKBN0U127Q20151218
Quote:
Reports of Saudi Arabia’s demise, however, have been greatly exaggerated. Despite its high reliance on oil, the kingdom still has a relatively cozy financial cushion and several options that it can employ to get its budget in order. And, more relevant to the conflict in question, Saudi Arabia has far more wiggle room here than Iran.

While the Saudi economy is more heavily reliant on oil than Iran’s, its foreign exchange reserves are far higher and its sovereign wealth fund owns far more assets. It also still has the untapped option of issuing bonds — it has the world’s lowest GDP-to-debt ratio (under 2 percent) and a high credit rating. Most importantly, Riyadh is already taking steps to inject more funds into government coffers: The development to watch out for is the planned economic reforms package, which would institute a value-added tax, cut subsidies, and privatize certain sectors. According to Saudi calculations, should this be successful, the country will see a balanced budget before 2020.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/07/the-next-front-in-the-saudi-iran-war/?utm_content=bufferb617a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This is all well and dandy, but it just seems bizarre to have a containment strategy for iran based on flooding the oil market. yeah that will hurt iran's efforts to catch up following 30 years of sanctions (in those 30 years the people have learned to live under circumstances unfathomable to the saudis) but that means saudi has to continue living with sub-$50/barrel when they've budgeted for $76/barrel. cut your nose to spite your face !
post #2054 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

I'm sure this will be followed by US air strikes as the rats flee the ship

And where will they go then.
post #2055 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-economy-policy-idUKKBN0U127Q20151218
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/07/the-next-front-in-the-saudi-iran-war/?utm_content=bufferb617a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This is all well and dandy, but it just seems bizarre to have a containment strategy for iran based on flooding the oil market. yeah that will hurt iran's efforts to catch up following 30 years of sanctions (in those 30 years the people have learned to live under circumstances unfathomable to the saudis) but that means saudi has to continue living with sub-$50/barrel when they've budgeted for $76/barrel. cut your nose to spite your face !
King salman:" apres moi la deluge!"

In all seriousness, that country is beyond reform. Selling the table silver when it's worthless for the first time in years(not to mention the endemic mismanagement in aramco, any buyer will probably have to eject 90% of the Saudi to have a chance to make it work) at a time when he will simply use the proceeds to plug a gap of a few years. Imho, the country is doomed, this is simply postponing a few years more for the house of saud, probably until all of them are convinced they need to leave the country before that turn happens.

McKinsey saying the country can turn into a normal economy in a few years, that's going to create a couple of laughs in my circles :-)
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