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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 103

post #1531 of 2699
Yes thank you wojt. There were many other terrorist plots that were planned for yesterday that thankfully have been stopped.

We will probably have many more incidents like this.
post #1532 of 2699
Why wasn't that mentioned in this thread?

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/12/middleeast/beirut-explosions/
post #1533 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Glad you're safe, Alan. Do you think there's a real chance of full-scale destabilization of Lebanon?

 

In other news, Sinjar is liberated and Jihadi John was zapped by a US drone strike outside of the Sharia Court in Raqqa. 

post #1534 of 2699
Thread Starter 

And now al-Hawl has been taken by the SDF. ash-Shaddadi probably next. 

post #1535 of 2699
I think some regional powers have decided to start shaking the lebanese scene so i think there will be more attempts at political assassinations and terrorism stuff.

But i dont think there will be a full blown confrontation or war. Noone from the lebanese side wants it.

However the economical situation is critical and the first terrorist attack that happens in christian areas will put a lot of pressure on all levels.
post #1536 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Noone from the lebanese side wants it.

 

This is mostly what I've been gathering. The memories of the Civil War are still too fresh. 

post #1537 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post

Noone from the lebanese side wants it.

 

This is mostly what I've been gathering. The memories of the Civil War are still too fresh. 


Thats what I said about the US invasion of Iraq

post #1538 of 2699
Well shit
post #1539 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

This is mostly what I've been gathering. The memories of the Civil War are still too fresh. 

Plus the internal balance of power militarily is schewed towards hezballah if you only count lebanese. And last thing hezballah wants is any tension here.

Any sunni military side in any war would consist of palestinians and syrian refugees mostly. The lebanese sunni parties even those who are against hezballa fiercely know that rhey would lose their leadership then, and cannot control those fighters.


I would like to think part of it is what you have said also, but im hesitant to give lebanese any credit about lessons learned
post #1540 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Hollande called the attacks an "act of war" and that France will respond "mercilessly." I say occupy everything in Syria north of the Euphrates. 

post #1541 of 2699
CNN decided to get a balanced and fair voice of reason by interviewing Assad who is now using this massively to his advantage, of course. He effectively accused the west of helping foster a chaotic environment by supporting radicals in Syria.
post #1542 of 2699
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

CNN decided to get a balanced and fair voice of reason by interviewing Assad who is now using this massively to his advantage, of course. He effectively accused the west of helping foster a chaotic environment by supporting radicals in Syria.


Says the same inbred clown who funneled terrorists into Iraq.

post #1543 of 2699
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Hollande called the attacks an "act of war" and that France will respond "mercilessly." I say occupy everything in Syria north of the Euphrates. 

He also said ISIS was behind it.
post #1544 of 2699
Thread Starter 

Never said it couldn't be ISIS. Just that it looked more like AQ. It's a big mistake on their part and maybe a sign that they're giving up on the state thing. Raqqa is going to be pounded over the coming days. 

post #1545 of 2699

Kurds enter Sinjar try to retake the city from ISIS
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