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ethan's Musing on the Near East - Page 87

post #1291 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

curious, why 1950 as a cutoff ? i've only looked glanced through secondary sources that highlight the very dynamic nature of the term. it's a catch-all, and really no two so-called salafi groups really ever accept one another as each thinks itself the most accurate, and indeed the very notion of the salaf has changed over the course of decades/centuries.


To add to this, Qutb didn't publish Milestones until 1964.

post #1292 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Here is an up to date guide to the opposition in Syria: http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syrian-opposition-guide-october-7-2015
post #1293 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Daha Jordan beat Australia. 

 

How do you feel about that, Eason? 

post #1294 of 2692
Four Russian missiles miss Syrian targets, hit Iran

SYRIA-iran.jpg

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/08/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN0S22EG20151008

Also, QS is at it again
Quote:
At a meeting in Moscow in July, a top Iranian general unfurled a map of Syria to explain to his Russian hosts how a series of defeats for President Bashar al-Assad could be turned into victory - with Russia's help.

Major General Qassem Soleimani's visit to Moscow was the first step in planning for a Russian military intervention that has reshaped the Syrian war and forged a new Iranian-Russian alliance in support of Assad.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/06/us-mideast-crisis-syria-soleimani-insigh-idUSKCN0S02BV20151006
post #1295 of 2692
Russian military bombs like all Russians drive apparently.
post #1296 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Yeah how'd that work out for him? FSA went out tank plinking yesterday.
post #1297 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Daha Jordan beat Australia. 

How do you feel about that, Eason? 

Loving it. The Aussies are going to be furious about first losing to England and then to "some lebs". biggrin.gif
post #1298 of 2692
Thread Starter 

The Russia effect:

 

post #1299 of 2692
Thread Starter 

Do you think they meant for this to look like a fish? 

 

post #1300 of 2692
Thread Starter 

This is significant. US arms inbound, I imagine. 

 

post #1301 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

This is significant. US arms inbound, I imagine. 



Significant, but enough to have significance??
post #1302 of 2692
Those guys have never fired a bullet on Assad (I fail to see any scenario in the future where Assyrians would). If im not mistaken theyre all around raqqa and had clashed with ISIS.

This is the US trying to find some kind of foothold against the Russian rise in Syria. Its not a bad thing, actually.

Not even Assad himself is under the delusion that the regime will come back in the same way it was, nor should it. What the Russian involvement ensures is that Assad or whoever they chose will be present on the settlement table and a part of the solution, and not its victim. Hopefully the major and leading part still.

What they need is some kind of opposition counterpart that they can involve and make a settlement with. I think the Russians will try to involve Egypt into a more active role with Syrian sunnis, and get it to "supply" a sunni partner for Assad and negotiate a settlement. But it will be a difficult task for Russia and its more likely that the Americans/gulf countries retain the sunni card.
post #1303 of 2692
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Do you think they meant for this to look like a fish? 



This is one of those expected attempts to rebrand islamists into a more western acceptable mold. Those guys are just Ahrar Sham and former Nusra with a few mini groups added.
post #1304 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alan View Post


This is one of those expected attempts to rebrand islamists into a more western acceptable mold. Those guys are just Ahrar Sham and former Nusra with a few mini groups added.


My theory is that it's a front for funneling arms to JaF. 

post #1305 of 2692
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eason View Post


Significant, but enough to have significance??


It all depends on how many men and women they can raise and how much equipment they can get. Ideally, you would want to secure the whole Turkish border before marching on Raqqa but Turkey is blocking any expansion west of the Euphrates. So because they can't seal off that front, they will need to leave significant rear defense elements at every point along the Euphrates. You also have the ethnic issue where you don't want Kurds marching into Raqqa where they are mostly regarded as "PKK terrorists." If I were planning this I would be want to leave YPG/J in rear defense and let the Arab units assault south. The problem then is that the YPG/J are the most capable and numerous fighters. 

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